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04.04.2011

DOMESTIC POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

The Iranian opposition keeps expanding anti-governmental activity conditioned by the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2012 against the background of the developments in the Arab world. The reshuffle in the Iranian political elite continues; those shifts are to influence the results of the parliamentary elections in 2012 and presidential elections in 2013.

The activity of the opposition

On February 28 Agence France-Presse spread information that the house imprisonment of the leaders of the opposition Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi was substituted by the arrest. According to that information, the oppositionists and their wives were arrested and taken to Heshmatiyeh prison in Tehran where hundreds of young people who represent the opposition are hold. But on March 1st FARS information agency was told at the prison that the leaders of the opposition had never been arrested and brought to the prison; only, the son the M. Karroubi, was arrested for promoting anti-governmental actions and participating in them. This information was lately confirmed by the General Prosecutor’s Office of Iran. It should be mentioned that Agence France-Press spread the information about the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi making reference to the editor of a non-official web-site of Mousavi.

One can suppose that Mousavi, who has been under the house imprisonment since February 14, spread disinformation about his arrest on February 28 through his team, thus expecting that this news would bring more people to the rally of the opposition on March 1st. Though the rally of the opposition took place on March 1st it cannot be considered numerous which is also indicated by the western sources. In the months to come one can expect a lot of disinformation concerning the arrests of the oppositional leaders from both Iranian oppositional and western sources. The later will try to urge public to more active actions on the “streets”.

According to M. Mousavi’s daughter the oppositional leader is not only under the house imprisonment but also the contacts with his children are also prohibited. The “closed” condition of Mousavi will create fertile ground for disinformation. Though, if we believe Iranian oppositionists, Mousavi manages to connect with the public even through the police officers who guard him, the evidence of which was his message spread on March 8 devoted to the international women’s day where he called to arrange new and more massive rally.

It should be mentioned that the opposition spares no effort to use all the possible means and occasion to arrange new rallies. E.g. on the international women’s day the leaders of the opposition M. Mousavi and M. Karroubi urged their supporters to go out to the streets and organize protest actions for the protection of the human rights of the citizens of Iran. The protest actions were suppressed and broken up by the police, several dozen people were arrested. It should be mentioned that March 8, which is celebrated in different countries as an international women’s day, has been celebrated neither under the Shah’s rule nor in Islamic republic. Even more there were times when on March 8 the protest actions were arranged by “Tudeh” communist party which was against both Shah and Islamic authorities. This party was closed by the government back in 1980s. This day can be considered anti-religious as it disputes the equality and freedom of women, which is unacceptable in the countries where the Muslim ethics is a part of the state policy. So the attempts of the opposition to use this day for arranging anti-governmental actions symbolize the ideological transformation of the Iranian anti-governmental movement; if in 2009 it was based on the necessity to preserve the Islamic system of values and form of government, today it is a movement directed against the system and in case of its doubtful victory it may change the entire system of government in Iran.

This is, probably, the biggest “achievement”, in the negative sense, of the Iranian political processes for the recent decades. Persecutions for the oppositional views over the years of Ahmadinejad’s rule brought to the disappointment in the idea of transformation through the changes of the state system and elections, and oppositional movement, which was formerly a struggle of one wing of the power holding authorities with the other wing, is gradually turning into a public struggle against the power holding system. Unfortunately the stuff reshuffle in the camp of the authorities (the mild conservatives are being resigned and instead of them the adherents of the hard line are appointed) causes political crisis and intensification of further contradictions between the state and the society and attaches to the oppositional movement more revolutionary character. In this aspect a fluent removal of the former president Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani (who was the adherent of restricted reforms and the opponent of radicalism) from the bodies of government which may complete the process of passing of the power in Iran to the radicals may seem to be crucial.

Reshuffle in the authorities

On March 8 the elections of the chairman of the Assembly of Experts of Iran were held in a consequence of which Ali Hashemi-Rafsanjani was removed from his post. This post plays rather important role in the domestic political life in Iran because the Assembly of Experts is an influential constitutional body, one of the key functions of which is the election of the spiritual leader of Iran. Hashemi-Rafsanjani occupied the posts of the chairman of the Assembly of Experts and the head of the Expediency Discernment Council, which made him the most influential political figure after the spiritual leader and president. After the presidential elections in 2009 when Hashemi-Rafsanjani indirectly protected anti-Ahmadinejad movement, the struggle against his power and influence has become one the most topical goals of the radical conservatives. This struggle was mainly directed by the immediate surroundings of the Iranian president but over the recent period the criticisms in the address of Hashemi-Rafsanjani can be heard on the entire state level. However, the November 2010 decision of the court to arrest the son of the former president came to prove that the movement against Hashemi-Rafsanjani is directed by the state.

Thus, on March 8 Hashemi-Rafsanjani lost one of his two crucial posts. Though the western media present the removal of Rafsanjani as his defeat and the victory of the radical conservatives, the reality is quite different. Before the elections of the chairman of the Assembly of Experts Hashemi-Rafsanjani stated that he was not going to run as a candidate if the Islamist Mohamad Kani also was nominated. It should be mentioned that though Kani is of more conservative political views, nevertheless he has rather special relations with Hashemi-Rafsanjani: they both head conservative Combatant Clergy Association which had been one of the most influential powers in the Iranian parliament. Besides, there is rather good fellowship between Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Kani, which began in 1970s (when they were struggling against Shah) and deepened in 1980s (when they were the closest adherents of ayatollah Khomeini). And though Hashemi-Rafsanjani was obliged to leave one of his crucial posts he managed to provide such a succession that the Assembly of Experts would not turn into another instrument of political struggling against ex-president. Let us mention that Mohamad Kani will most probably manage the Assembly of Experts only one term, i.e. 2 years, as he is 80 years old. Before the elections he stated that he was reluctant to undertake that post.

It is important for Hashemi-Rafsanjani over the period to come that he will preserve the post of the chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council. In February 2012 the term of this set of the council expires after which the spiritual leader of Iran will have to approve the new composition of the council. This body, which, in fact, has been headed by Hashemi-Rafsanjani after the establishment in 1989, is an important structure taking intermediate position between the Iranian parliament and the Assembly of Experts and its main function is to consider new laws or sub-enactments adopted in Iran, make proposals on either reconsidering or denying them. Preserving the position of the chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council is of crucial importance for Hashemi-Rafsanjani because if he loses it the former president of Iran will lose his official influence and role in the domestic political and economic life of the country. Taking into consideration the hatred with which the propaganda against Hashemi-Rafsanjani is carried out in the Iranian media controlled by the radical conservatives, one can suppose that after losing the post and (unofficial) immunity a real campaign will be initiated against the family of Hashemi-Rafsanjani which takes an important place in the big business and this campaign may be subversive for both the family and the oppositional movement supported by it.

The way Hashemi-Rafsanjani is going to preserve his position is important. The possible option is that he may come to terms with the spiritual leader and try to get his new appointment to that post. But it seems that Hashemi-Rafsanjani is going to rally old conservative powers round him and thus lead them to provide majority in a new calling of Majlis which will be elected in March 2012. The shifts in the Combatant Clergy Association and opinions published in the Iranian press that Hashemi-Rafsanjani will head this organizations in the upcoming elections come to prove that the old conservatives has liven up. Let us mention that attaching revolutionary character to the oppositional movement headed by Mousavi and Karroubi, most probably, will bring to the fact that the Army of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution will not allow registering the figures representing political wing of Mousavi’s and Karroubi’s movement, thus finally redirecting their struggle to the streets. In this case the old conservatives headed by Hashemi-Rafsanjani will have an opportunity to gain the ear of those who are discontented by the hard economic and political line of the incumbent president and to provide serious positions in the future parliament.

This is the evidence that Hashemi-Rafsanjani and powers consolidating round him, most probably, will continue helping opposition indirectly, seeing in it the guarantee of preserving their own positions.

“Globus Energy and Regional Security”, issue 2, 2011

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