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21.02.2013

QAZVIN-RASHT-ASTARA OR IRAN-ARMENIA?

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Sevak Sarukhanyan
Deputy Director of “Noravank” Foundation,
Head of the Center for Political Studies, Ph.D. (Political Studies)


Recently the discussions on the development of the railway service have stirred up in the South Caucasus and Armenia. This is mostly conditioned by the change of the leadership in Georgia in 2012 after which a new government was formed. Unlike the previous one it tends to improve the relations with Russia which in its turn brings into focus possibility of re-running the Georgian-Abkhazian railway.

But despite the results of the Georgian-Russian and Armenian-Georgian negotiations there are already railways projects implemented in the South Caucasus which tend to take leading positions in the regional transport system. There are two such projects – Kars-Akhlkalaki and Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railways. They both may greatly affect Armenia as their implementation will indirectly bring to the deepening of the transport blockade of the Republic of Armenia. Hence in our opinion Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway is of greater significance for Armenia as, by creating direct railway connection between the Persian Gulf and Azerbaijan, it will directly influence transport prospects of the Rep. of Armenia. And there are such prospects especially if we take into consideration the possibility of re-running of the Abkhazian railway.

Qazvin-Rasht-Astara and Iran-Armenia railways

Back in 2004 Russian-Iranian-Azerbaijani declaration on building Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway was signed in Tehran and in 2005 it was followed by an appropriate agreement. The fact that Russia also signed the agreement is understandable. The railway connecting Iranian Qazvin and Azerbaijani Astara is an integral and important part of North-South international transport corridor which aims not only connecting Iranian and Azerbaijani railways but also to connect Iranian Bender-Abas port with Russian railways through the territory of Azerbaijan. This project is of great geopolitical significance because it will link the markets of South and South East Asia with Russia and Europe by means of almost direct railway which will result in off-loading of the cargo traffic through the Suez Canal. The significance of these prospects has sharply grown today when Egypt is indulged into the long political crisis.

According to different economic researches annually 25-26 million tons can be transported by means of the railway which will make it into one of the world’s biggest transportation hubs.

In this aspect both Russians and Iranians are very interested in the building of the railway and the same can be said about Azerbaijan too; it tends to become transition country not only for oil and gas export but also for cargo transportation. This is rather an attempt to restore old status when there was a railway communication between Iran and Azerbaijan in the Soviet period, than a new prospect. The only difference is that this communication was maintained through the Nakhijevan and Armenian SSR which is today impossible.

But it should also be underlined that Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway is also an indirect competitor of the Armenian transport projects, the most important of which is the prospect of building Iran-Armenia railway. Unfortunately while discussing building of the railway most of the attention in Armenia is paid to the commodity turnover between Armenia and Iran. We say unfortunately because if we consider the significance of building a railway only in the aspect of the Armenian-Iranian cooperation the conclusions will be obvious. Taking into consideration the small volume of the Armenian-Iranian commodity turnover and its one-sidedness (80% of general turnover is directed from Iran to Armenia) the railway is not profitable and it should not be built. This is wrong approach which does not take into consideration the fact that almost all the railways built all over the world are solving rather regional than inter-state issues. And which is the regional significance of Iran-Armenia railway? It is almost the same as the one of Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway and the only difference is that instead of the Azerbaijani territory it will pass through the territories of Armenia and Georgia. Of course in case if we consider that the Abkhazian railway will be re-opened. But even in case if it is not re-opened, it should be taken into consideration that Iran-Armenia railway will connect two other transportation hubs – Bender-Abas and Georgian Black Sea Poti port.

This fact and prospect is appreciated not only by the Iranians but also by the Chinese who are interested in the building of Iran-Armenia railway.

Thus, for Armenia the factual state the construction of Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway is important.

Is Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway being built?

This is one of the most crucial and enigmatic issues. Formally the railway is built at an accelerated tempo as it received necessary financing in 2011. By the approved 2011-2012 Iranian budget $111 million which had to provide completion of the project and putting the railway into commission, were allotted. But in September 2012 Iranian party send an official letter to the head of the “Russian Railways” Valdimir Yakunin with a request to finance the building of the railway. In October 2012 during Vladimir Yakunin’s visit to Tehran, the Russian party did not conclude any agreement on funding the railway building with Iran thus, factually, giving up on the offer to finance the works. But the interesting fact about this is that the Iranian media and state officials have been reporting in different ways on the condition of the railway since 2010. If the official statement of the Ministry of Roads and Transportation of Iran read that 70% of works were completed and general works would be over in 2010, in 2012 the new Minister of Transportation of Iran Ali Nikzad stated that only 50% of works were completed and the completion of project was planned by the end of 2015.

The main reason of such a discord can, most probably, be conditioned by hard economic situation in Iran due to which financing of a number of big projects was ceased. It is not excluded that $111 million allotted for 2011-2012 did not reach the railway and were redirected to softening difficult financial situation caused by the international sanctions.

In 2012-2013 uncertainty around the railway’s prospects still preserves. According to the Minister of Roads and Transportation of Iran Ahmed Sadeghi 67% of the construction works has been completed and in 2014 it will be fully put into commission. The feasibility of these prospects is an important issue because almost all the optimistic statements are made by the Iranian party at the meetings with the Azerbaijani officials. Moreover, it is remarkable that the Iranian media almost does not turn to the railway even though for propagandistic purposes almost all the more or less remarkable projects are covered. The same cannot be said of building of the Iran-Armenia railway which has not been started yet but it is mentioned about the railway building and prospects almost in all the publications in the Iranian media devoted to Armenia.

It is obvious that the Iranian party is very interested in Iran-Armenia project from political point of view, because Armenia and Georgia for Iran is one thing and Azerbaijan is the other thing. There are practically no chances to improve the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations the deteriorated over the last year because such an improvement is hampered by both “Iranian policy” of Azerbaijan, and failure of the policy of establishment of active Iranian-Turkish cooperation. And change of the leadership in Georgia created grounds for Tehran to expect that the “Georgian road” to Russia can be opened, thus creating serious alternative to the road going through Azerbaijan.

“Globus” analytical journal, #2, 2013

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