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03.02.2011

IRAN IN 2011: POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

S.Sarukhanyan - Deputy Director of “Noravank” Foundation, Head of the Center of the Political Studies, Ph.D. in Political Sciences

2011 will be important from the point of view of the social-economic and political development of Iran, as well as in the aspect of nuclear programme and foreign and domestic political developments.

1. The main result of 2010

2010 was rather difficult year for Iran. Important developments took place in the domestic and foreign political life of Iran. Those developments challenged stable social-economic and political development of the country.

In the domestic political life the positions of the radical conservatives had been consolidated the main manifestation of which was the discharge of “centrist” M. Motaki from the post of the Minister of Foreign Affairs. At the same time radical conservatives attached more acuity to their confrontations with old “centric” ruling elite (the later has demonstrated a kind of weakness of their strength in the course of this controversy). The decision of the Iranian court taken in November 2010 to arrest M. Hashemi, the son of the former president A.A. Hashemi Rafsanjani, can be considered as one of the most important developments in domestic political field because it symbolized the relative defeat of the “centric” powers united round Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Important foreign political developments were connected with the nuclear programme, the implementation of which was not interrupted by Iran; it even continually gained in scope. Sanctions imposed against Iran had been of no effect. The abrupt deterioration of the relations between Russia and Iran can also be considered as one of the most important foreign political developments which were conditioned by toughening of the stance of Kremlin on the issue of the nuclear programme of Iran and the process of coordination of the “Iranian policy” with the US.

The main results which were fixed last year will play an important role in the processes which may take place in Iran in 2011.

2. Domestic political developments in Iran in 2011: possible processes

2011 will be of great importance in the domestic political life of Iran because during this year the country will be preparing for the parliamentary elections which are going to be held in February 2012. Those elections will be the first national elections since 2009 when M. Ahmadinejad was reelected as the president and when, probably the most serious political crisis after the Islamic revolution burst out. Taking into consideration this fact, the most serious powers in the Iranian political field began eager preparations to the upcoming elections in the shadow of which the political struggle of the coming 12 months will pass on. The informational and administrative struggle initiated against the former president A.A. Hashemi Rafsanjani proves that the radical conservatives united round the president M. Ahmadinejad consider “centric powers” united round Hashemi Rafsanjani as their main opponents. The decision about the arrest of the Mehdi Hashemi, the son of the former president, was a serious blow to the “centric powers”, because Hashemi who is now in London is accused of not only economic abuse and organizing anti-government rally but he is also accused of cooperation with British special services. One may say that the anti-oppositional propaganda carried out by the state mass media will even intensify in 2011 and its keystone in 2010 was the connections of the opposition with the British intelligence.

It should be mentioned that the accusations of the “British trace” has been a kind of tradition in Iran since 1960 when it became obvious that the Mossadiq government was overthrown by the British and American intelligence services. But it should also be mentioned that a part of the current Iranian opposition has really indirect connections with Britain; some relatives of the leaders of opposition M. Karroubi and M.H. Mousavi really live in Great Britain and this is fact is used by the state propaganda. In their turn British special services add fuel to the anti-British fire in Iran; after the statement of the head of the British Mi-6 J. Sowers that Iranian nuclear programme should be stopped not only by the discussions but also through special intelligence operations, Iran officially declared the UK the main organizer of diversions (including neutralization of the specialists in nuclear physics) on its territory.

It can be expected that in 2011 state propaganda will fully identify opposition to the traitors which may serve as a grounds for the Council of the Guardians not to register active oppositional leaders and their groups as parliamentary candidates.

At the same time in the oppositional camp the struggle for the role of the leader of the opposition will unfold in 2011. Most probably the main persons involved into that struggle will be M. H. Mousavi and M. Karroubi. Positions of Mousavi in the oppositional field has weakened since 2009 because many blame him in being unable to transform the revolutionary power of thousands of people who went out for rally; it is obvious that in 2009 it was a pre-revolutionary situation in Tehran and Mousavi refused to turn into a revolutionary one. Taking into consideration this fact, one can expect that in 2011 M. Karroubi whose anti-governmental stance is tougher can undertake the role of the oppositional leader in Iran. He makes everything to obtain this goal: at the end of 2010 Karroubi had already criticized the spiritual leader A. Khamenei, saying that he was responsible for the situation in the country. The stance of Hashemi Rafsanjani will also influence the processes going on inside the oppositional powers. Will he protect directly opposition or after the campaign initiated against him and his son he will agree to start a dialogue or cooperate with the radical conservatives?

Let us mention that one of the main intrigues of the domestic political developments will be the behavior of the former president M. Khatami. Will he return to a big politics or not? Many believe that in 2013 M. Khatami must become oppositional candidate for the presidential elections.

3. Possible foreign political developments round Iran in 2011

The issue of a nuclear programme will remain in the spotlight of the foreign political developments round Iran. However, no serious shift can be expected in this direction in 2011, because the negotiation between Iran and “the six” which seemed to revive at the beginning of the year will bring the parties to frequent meetings, discussion of the options of the settlement of the issue, mutually discrepant statements which can have no serious effect on ceasing of the nuclear programme of Iran. It is possible that in 2011 the UN Security Council will pass another package of sanctions against Iran which, however, can hardly stop Iran on its way to become a nuclear power. It should be mentioned that 2011 will be pre-election for both Russia and US where the presidential elections are to be held in 2012.

If in case with Russia its policy in regard to Iran can hardly have any serious effect, Iranian and US authorities will probably make the statements and propaganda against each other tougher, but they will have to act more carefully, as serious mistakes in the foreign political field can affect seriously the possible results of the presidential elections. At the same time, one can expect that B. Obama in order to be re-elected must secure American presence in Iraq and Afghanistan to restrain the discontent of the American electorate with the failure of the American foreign policy. To obtain this purpose, most probably, in 2011 the US will stir up its dialogue with Iran concerning the assistance in settlement of the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. Taking into consideration the fact that the US authorities and influential mass media have stated that the stability in the region can hardly be achieved without participation of Iran, Washington is already ready for cooperation.

Besides Iraq and Afghanistan, in 2011 the relations with Turkey and situation in Pakistan will also be important for Iran. Turkish-Iranian cooperation has already reached definite high level which must be followed either by final strengthening and institutionalization of the cooperation or a definite freezing of those relations. Taking into consideration the circumstance that since the second half of 2010 at the negotiations with the EU Turkish prime-minister has stopped insisting on the participation of Iran in Nabucco project, one can expect that in 2011 there will be no positive shift in the most important, i.e. economic part (export of the Iranian gas to the EU through the Turkish territory) of the Iranian-Turkish relations. As for Pakistan, in 2011 Iran will spare no strength in order not to allow accession to power of anti-Iranian and anti-Shiite radical Sunni Islamists.

Thus, 2011 will be of great importance for Iran in terms of both domestic and foreign political developments.

“Globus Energy and Regional Security”, issue 1, 2011

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