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18.11.2010

IRAN: OLD AND NEW ISSUES

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

Nuclear issue

On October 17 the president of Iran M. Ahmadinejad stated that Tehran is ready to resume negotiations on the nuclear issues with the “six nations”. This is Iran’s first statement since June 2010 when Tehran stated that it terminated negotiations with the “six” because of the illegal conduct of the later (here the sanctions imposed on Iran are meant). There are also claims set up in the statements made by the president on October 17, after the implementation of which Tehran will get back to talks:

1. The negotiations should be based on the IAEA principles.

2. The West must formulate clearly what it expects from the negotiations – friendship or hostility.

3. The “six” must decide whether to acquire positive result or to make another statement to undermine the negotiations.

4. The “six” must express official point of view on the Israeli nuclear arsenal and state clearly how it regards it.

Though this items which were sounded by the Iranian president are mainly of propagandistic character but the 4th item, in our opinion, deserves scrutiny. It is obvious that the “six” will not make any statement on Israel’s nuclear arsenal because: a) it is outside its competence, b) Israel’s nuclear programme rarely becomes a subject to discuss. But the statement of the president of Iran is remarkable because he put the subject of the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear programme on the same footing as the issue of the Israeli nuclear arsenal, though, according to Tehran, its nuclear programme pursue only peaceful objects.

As for the proposal to resume negotiations, it causes positive reaction of the “six”. On November 1, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia S. Lavrov stated that Russia supported the resumption of the negotiations and it hoped that the negotiations would be held in the mid November. The similar statements were made by the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Germany and China. It should be mentioned that since September the United States has being actively prepared to the further isolation of Iran as a result of negotiations. At the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations held on October 30-31 in Hanoi, the US State Secretary H. Clinton negotiated with the Chinese leaders on the Iranian policy of China. According to some sources, the US State Secretary was mainly bothered by the issue whether the Chinese companies would take place of the European companies which would leave Iran. Such preconditions could be observed in August-September when a number of French technological companies closed their offices in Tehran. After that they were substituted by the Chinese companies, so it seemed that Beijing used the sanctions by the UN Security Council to work up an Iranian market.

It should be mentioned that there are opinions in the EU that the decisions of the EU and separate European countries on imposing sanctions on Iran were serious mistake, because this will open way to Chinese and Indian companies to take the places which had been occupied by the Europeans for the recent 20 years with great difficulties. This is a serious issue for the EU which firstly concerns energy security because consolidation of the Chinese presence in Iran may bring to the export of the Iranian gas to China which even more complicates building of Nabucco gas pipeline. German gas giants “RWE” ceased its participation in Nabucco programme because, as it is mentioned in German press, company was not ready to confront with ruling party in Germany.

As for the negotiations between Iran and the “six”, they, most probably, will be resumed in mid November and will be held in Turkey.

Regional politics

Over the recent period Iran takes rather important position in regional developments thus making obvious the fact of strengthening its stance.

On October 24, in order to comment the information which appeared in the American press, the president of Afghanistan H.Karzai officially confirmed at press-conference that he received sum of money in cash from the Iranian government. Here it is talked of a sum of money given to the Chief of General Staff of the Afghani army. The president of Afghanistan stated that they gave them money in bags, that it was a fact and that they were grateful to the Iranians for that and the patriotism had its price. Under the price Karzai most probably implied stimulating the interest of his own officers in order they protected the constitutional order and did not pass to the side of “Taliban”. Such statements are remarkable due to two main reasons:

1. Afghani authorities officially accept the fact of close cooperation with the authorities of Iran and demonstrate how fragile are the positions of the main donor of Afghanistan – the United States – in that country if the authorities of that country cooperate with the main competitor and rival of Washington in the region.

2. In fact, the army which provides the security of Afghanistan is like a unit of mercenaries which carries out its duties out of sheer financial considerations. It is remarkable that Karzai also admitted that a part of the Iranian sum of money was spent on “payments to the security companies”, because army is not able to keep the situation in the country under the control.

This fact, alongside with the escalation of violence in Iraq, comes to prove the failure of the American policy in the region. Most probably, situation in Iraq and Afghanistan went beyond the framework of the logic of the “controlled chaos”. Most probably Washington cannot control situation in the region.

By the way, on October 30 the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran stated in response to the words of the president of Afghanistan that Tehran never rejected “investments in the security of Afghanistan” which makes the strengthening positions of Tehran even more obvious.

In this aspect, it is not excluded, that the negotiations with the “six” may lay a breeding ground for the resumption of the negotiations between America and Iran, because it is obvious that Washington is not able to solve on its own the problems which came forward in Iraq and Afghanistan,

Iran is also interested in resuming negotiations with the US, because the processes in Iraq constitute serious danger to Tehran. First of all it refers to stirring up of Al-Qaida. The later spread more vigor activity in the populated mostly by Shiites south part of Iraq which is under the Iranian influence and where serious Iranian and western investments have been made. 90% of Iraqi oil is produced there. According to Al-Qaida’s statement placed on one of the Islamist web-sites and later re-published by Iranian and western information agencies, Islamists are going to deliver new strikes on the companies and enterprises working in Basra and Amar. It was mentioned that thus Al-Qaida would break the back of Shiite government in Basra because the sums which were acquired from selling oil were the blood of the authorities, the source of buying weapons and sums paid to army and police.

It is obvious that such a situation constitute serious menace to both Iranians and Americans. The ruling Shiite government and more than independent Kurdish region provide stability in Iraq and protection of Iranians and American interests. Breaching current status quo may cause problems to both Tehran and Washington. It is obvious that the US and Iran will have to resume cooperation in order to make the processes in Iraq more controllable. Probably, none of the parties will finish on top and the achievements may be mutually beneficial.


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