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23.03.2010

ON IRAN’S REGIONAL POLICY

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

The developments around Iran are directly connected with the processes going on in the neigbouring countries and among those processes the developments in Iraq and Afghanistan are important. The article refers to some main issues of the regional policy of Iran.

In the recent years Iran has managed to use its positions in the region rather usefully in order to strengthen its interests in the global plane. After the Islamic revolution Tehran established a number of subordinate religious and political organizations in the Middle East which aim is to protect the interests of Iran. The most active and powerful among them is Lebanese “Hezbollah”, which was created with the active assistance of the Iranian authorities.

The strengthening of the position of Iran in the organizations which used to be controlled and financed by Arab countries can be regarded as a success achieved by the IRI. The Palestine “Hamas” which was connected with the Syrian and Saudi authorities in the past, today receives the main help from Iran which influence on “Hamas”, according to some Israeli analysts, has become decisive.

Iran’s stirring up in the region is directly connected with two possible scenarios which can take place in the Middle East.

  1. The nuclear programme of Iran may cause military actions against Iran by Israel or/and the United States. Strengthening its positions within the powers struggling against Washington or Tel Aviv Iran tries to make supposed enemies refuse from the possible collision because it may also cause the collision with the allies of Iran in the region. And if the collision takes place, Iran will spread it all over the region with the help of its allies.
  2. If Iran avoids collision and finishes its nuclear programme it will become the most influential power in the region and will aspire to become a superpower. Under such conditions Tehran, which has only one ally in the Arab countries – Syria, will be struggling for setting its domination. In this struggle the organizations, which today receive financial and military assistance from Iran, will be used.

The aforementioned scenarios are mainly of mid-term or long-term character. And today the most important regional developments for Iran are those going on in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are civil wars, foreign military presence and the possible destabilizing threat for Iran in those countries. In this aspect the relations with Iraq and Afghanistan are of paramount importance for Tehran.

New “war” between Iran and Iraq

After the elections of the US president it became clear that the US troops would leave Iraq. Maybe, from that very moment, the issue of Iraq aroused before Iran. How will Iran cooperate with the Iraqi authorities after their becoming more or less independent? The point is that on the one hand in recent years Iran has promoted destabilization of the situation in Iraq as it has been considered as a direct impact on the American positions, but on the other hand, it has promoted the preservation of the integrity of Iran. In this case Tehran actively cooperated with Ankara, because both Turkey and Iran do not want to have an independent Kurdish state in the immediate proximity to their borders.

Today Iran has to elaborate new “Iraqi” policy where the American factor will not play such a decisive role as it used to play. The political situation in Baghdad where the local authorities have become more confident has also changed. During the last month of 2009 Iran’s steps in regard to Iraq came to prove that Tehran will consecutively protect its interests and positions in Iraq using for that purpose even the possibilities of military intervention.

On December 18, 2009, Iranian South Oil Co. company accompanied by the army units invaded Iraqi territory and seized the 4th section of El-Fakka oil field and announced it its property. In this regard the statement of Iraq’s foreign minister is remarkable where he, in fact, accepted that the relations with Iran are rather tense: “We have many problems with Iranians and some of them originated back in 2003. We have problems connected with the borders and water resources. “Iranian case” is the most voluminous in our Ministry”. Though the Iranians left the Iraqi oil field at the beginning of the year but, however, they characterized their step as an “expression of a good will”. Let us mention that Tehran had never pretended to the aforementioned oilfield before.

Iran’s policy in Iraq is also conditioned by the fact that Iraqi authorities being conscious of the price of the economic freedom after the departure of the Americans and as a result of the huge volume of exports of the oil tend to get rid of Iran’s “friendship”. Within the framework of this policy Iranian companies are being forced out of Iraq, the manifestation of which is the reconsideration of the $5 billion contracts concluded by the government of Iraq in November 2009 with two Iranian companies in favour to Saudi and Kuwaiti companies. Besides, Baghdad has already stated that it is going to renounce the import of the electricity from Iran and substitute it with the Saudi electricity.

Iraqi policy in regard to Iran will become even tougher in a log-term perspective. This will bring to the counteraction by Tehran, including the destabilization of the situation by its ally organizations and groups. It should be mentioned here that Tehran activated its ties with Iraqi Kurds. In December 2009 Barham Saleh, the prime-minister of the Kurdish government of Northern Iraq, visited Tehran on invitation of the president of Iran and hold talks with president Ahmadinejad, Minister of Foreign Affairs M. Motaki and former president A.A. Hashemi-Rafsanjani. The parties agreed to deepen the cooperation, and Iran pledged to help Kurdish authorities in developing Northern Iraq.

Iran-Afghanistan

The developments in Afghanistan are also significant for Iran. At the second half of 2009 Washington showed its intension to rely on Pakistan while settling the Afghani issue. The November statement of the US Minister of Defence said that Pakistan is the main ally of the US in the settlement of the Afghani issue and that, despite the news disseminated, Washington respected the independence of Pakistan and it did not aim to set control over its nuclear arsenal.

The deepening of the American-Pakistani relations has bothered Iran because Islamabad’s policy in Afghanistan was always directed on the weakening of Iranian positions there, and in Pakistan, in recent years, the policy directed to the pressure and displacement of the local Shiite population has been carried out. The number of the terrorist acts against the Shiites irrupted and the number of the later in the country, according to some data, has reduced for the recent 10 years from 18% to 12%.

The active cooperation of the current US administration with Pakistan bothers not only Iran but also American conservatives. In 2010 senator and candidate on the recent presidential elections John McCain stated that the US had to make stricter steps in regard to Talibs in Pakistan, as Islamabad either could not or did not want to do that. Let us also mention that many American generals favoured cooperation with Iran in the Afghani developments and spoke about Tehran’s important role. Among those generals is the commander of the US forces in the region General D. Petraeus who in 2009 said that in the solution of Afghani issue the cooperation with Iran was of crucial importance and probably it would be necessary to put aside the discrepancies in other issues. The German parliamentarians (the country which also has its military mission in Afghanistan) are of the same opinion. It was mentioned in the report prepared by the Christian Democratic Union’s deputy A. Schokenhoff that the cooperation of Washington and Tehran was crucial for the solution of Afghani issue.

But the Pashto population of Afghanistan and political powers are against the participation of Iran in the processes inside the country, because they think it will strengthen Tajik and Shiite positions. As well-known journalist and researcher B. Rubin who worked in Afghanistan for a quite long time mentions that most of the local population believes that Iran is not impartial in Afghanistan. The vivid example of that is the fact that today the richest and most wealthy people in Afghanistan are Shiites “who since 2001 has been receiving a huge financial assistance from Iran”. In order to strengthen its positions in Afghanistan Iran offered Kabul to finance the building of Heraq-Khat railway which would cost $500 million. Despite the fact that the programme is perspective, the central Afghan authorities refused to approve the building of the railway.

Recently in Iran the US policy in Afghanistan has been discussed actively, which, most probably, is conditioned by the fact that the Iranian-American cooperation format in Afghani issue, which has been working since 2001, began to fracture.

Summarizing one may say that Iran’s regional policy, which main directions are Afghani and Iraqi directions, began to transform. Iran is getting prepared to a possible clash with the US, strengthens its positions in the region which can be used for turning Iran into the regional superpower in case if the collision is avoided.


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