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21.06.2007

The visit of the RF President V.Putin to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan New restructuring on the regional energy map

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

As a result of his this visit paid to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on May 10-12 Vladimir Putin reached a number of important agreements mainly relating to developing cooperation among the countries in the energy field. The agreements reaches are also of political importance.

Specially chosen time period for the visit

During the last year our eye was stricken by a number noteworthy coincidences in the field of realizing programs of energy importance in the former USSR territory. Today, for example, the opening of Iran-Armenian gas pipeline is coinciding with the factual opening of Baku-Erzurum gas pipeline. Besides, the fact that these two gas pipelines are of great importance from the standpoint of ensuring energy security of the South Caucasus, they are ventures of different geopolitical and regional importance and pursue different goals. In the same way, the visit of the RF President to Kazakhstan and the conclusion of an important Russian-Kazakh and Russian-Turkmen-Kazakh agreement coincides with the works of not formal energy summit held in Krakov, Poland, the six participants of which were, or more exactly were to be the Presidents of Poland, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Lithuania. As one can suppose from the mere geography of participant countries, one of the main subjects discussed was the realization of Central Asia-South Caucasus-Ukraine-East Europe energy projects passing around Russia, the most important component part of which was to be Kazakhstan rich in oil and gas resources. The visit of RA president upset N. Nazarbaev’s participation in the works of the above mentioned summit and the signed agreement proved inefficiency of such meetings, as Russia’s territory was reestablished as the gas producing route in the Central Asia. From this standpoint it is noteworthy that one of the articles of the RA president devoted to his visit to the Central Asia was published in the authoritative journal “Express” under the title of «Путин не пустил Назарбаева в Польшу» .

It is noteworthy that V. Putin’s visit to Asia may be consider unexpected, as still in the beginning of May the President of Kazakhstan announced about his intention of taking part in the summit of Krakov. One can suppose that the conclusion of Russian-Turkmen-Kazakh agreement was also the result of preliminary arrangement made not long ago, that’s why it was a surprise for so called adherents of constructing Caspian gas pipeline and for the US as its political patron. G. Bushe’s not planned call to the RF President, who was in Astana at the moment, to discuss the development of mutual relations has come to prove it. Press services of the RF and US Presidents hasn’t released much information about the subject of their talk. Yet, in the first issue of the journal “Russian Reporter” established by the very authoritative “Express” monthly are sited the commentaries made in internet blogs on possible subjects of discussion between the presidents. Let’s mention that during the past years the blogs have been successfully used to give references of not official character, which allows the governments and mass media to avoid providing authoritative sources with such information and, therefore, responsibility for the materials published. So, “Russian Reporter” cites from a blog, where it is said that by his call George Bush aimed at persuading the RF President to avoid of signing the declaration of constructing a new gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Kazakhstan and Russia before this matter is discussed in the US-RF format as well as in the framework of the US State Secretary C. Rise’s visit to Moscow. Another reference from the very blog says that the conclusion of the new agreements in Astana and Ashgabat is the only victory of Russia, as they refer only to the field of gas. In the sense of exporting oil from Central Asia, Russia still has much to do because Kazakh-Azerbaijani-American agreements on building Aqtau-Baku oil carrier are still in power, although Kazakhstan may join the exploiters of Burgas-Aleksandrapol oil carrier.

Let’s mention that V. Putin’s paid his visit on the eve the RF-UN summit, which made quite a serious influence on EU intentions to import Central Asia’s gas resources without Russia’s intervention.

On agreements

And so, during V. Putin’s visit to Central Asia a number of important agreements were reached: that is:

  • On May 11 the Presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed a declaration on building NearCaspian oil pipeline. The Presidents assigned their governments a task to prepare and sign a final agreement on the conditions and procedure of constructing the gas pipeline till September. The new pipeline will stretch along the coast of the Caspian Sea till Kazakhstan and will join to Central Asia-Center gas pipeline situated in the place called Gay, which stretches from Uzbekistan to Russia.
  • According to the second declaration ratified by the signature of Uzbekistan’s President, in the current year is to begin the modernization program of Central Asia-Center gas pipeline built still in 1967. According to some sources, as a result of carrying out new programs, the capacity of the gas pipeline stretching from Turkmenistan to Russia will reach 160 billion cubic meters a year, which essentially surpasses gas producing volume of Turkmenistan. It is possible that in a certain period of time the would-be-built gas pipeline will became a basis to tie two gas states by an energy-transportation vessel.
  • At the same time the President of Kazakhstan made a few important offers relating to construction a railway and highway stretching from the Yealivo railway station in Kazakhstan to the Turkmenbashi city in Turkemnistan, which were accepted by the Presidents of Russia and Turkmenistan. In fact, these two transportation routs will join the territory stretching from Russian Kaliningrad and Iranian Beder Abas port in one highway axis. The programs will be carried out in the framework of creating “South-North” transportation pass, in which will also take part the president of Turkmenistan K. Berdimukhametov.
  • During his meeting with V. Putin the President of Turkmenistan announced that he was going to implement quite serious liberalisms in the energy field of Turkmenistan and invited the Russian and Kazakh companies to make joint efforts to develop gas mines situated in the Turkmen part of the Caspian Sea.
  • In negotiations with the Kazakhs one can see a comparative success in N. Nazarbaev’s announcement that Astana wants to join the exploitation of Burgas-Aleksandrapol gas pipeline, and for this purpose it is necessary to add the capacity of the Caspian oil pipeline consortium by 17 million tones. In spite of Astana’s pessimism, two days after Putin-Nazarbaev meeting, the RF Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Energy V. Khristenko announced that it was still early to speak about Russia’s consent to make the gas pipeline more powerful.

It is worth mentioning that after the trilateral negotiations are over, one of the questions asked to the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan sounds approximately like this: does the conclusion of trilateral agreement exclude the possibility of constructing the TransCaspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan. This question was answered negatively by the head of Turkmenistan who also added that Turkmenistan’s huge resources of gas were enough to carry out different projects. As the correspondent of Russian “Vedomost” newspaper mentions, after such an answer the RA President V. Putin ironically smiled, which, according to the correspondent, meant that it was hardly possibly for Turkmenistan to carry out any new extensive gas project after the contraction of the new gas pipeline is over and is put into operation.

The construction of TransCaspian gas pipeline will reduce the possibility of building NearCaspian gas pipeline and will hit at the interests of the project’s main ideologist US. However, ratification of Russian-Turkmen-Kazakh declaration indicates acute strengthening of Russia’s position in Central Asia, also on the account of China’s energy interests.

Internal political reconstructions in Turkmenistan and weakening of Chinese energy position

On May 15 Associated Press spread the news about the dismissal of the president’s security service head Akhmurad Redjebov by the order of Turkmenistan’s President. The former official had been taking this position since the country was ruled by T. Niyazov. Besides the fact that after the death of T Niyazov A. Redjebov was the second authoritative person in the country, he was also a unique one in the governing system and was not the representative of so called Tikin’s local clan (under the rule of T. Niyazov the representatives of this clan made 2/3 of the government). He is the representative of the little local clan Ersar. The representatives of Ersar mainly gather in Lebapian villayet in Turkmenistan situated on the borderline with Uzbekistan. In this very place are situated most of the mines of crude gas. As a result of exploiting these mines was to be constructed Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-China gas pipeline, and one of main adherents of which was A. Redjebov who (taking the post of the head of the President’s security service) paid an official visit to Beijing in April of the current year for discussing cooperation terms in energy field. Let’s mention that after taking the post of the President, K. Berdimukhamedov gave the first official interview to the Chinese “Sinkhua” information agency mentioning the importance of developing Turkmen-China cooperation in the energy field.

As an important fact one should here mention the following: the construction of the new Turkmen-Kazakh-Russian gas pipeline through this route supposes that the gas of Lebapian Villayet is to be exported to Russia and the EU, the mining of which will begin within the coming two years. It means that the conclusion of Turkmen-China agreement on constructing Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline in September may fail to be realized by a simple reason: today gas resources have already been redistributed and it doesn’t suppose the construction of a gas pipeline to China.

According to some information, the dismissal of A. Redjebov, which in reality happened still late in April, was connected with weakening the Chinese factor and “beheading” of Erser clan. As a result of this dismissal, the Turkmen authorities planned to take the Lebapian villayet, where the developments have become quite concerning, under control1.

Conclusions

V.Putin’s visit to the Central Asia may further quite serious changes in regional energy developments. The following circumstances are quite important for Armenia:

  1. The construction of NearCaspian gas pipeline reduces the prospective of building the TransCaspian gas pipeline, which will influence on the prospective of Azerbaijan’s turning into the main country of gas transition in the Central Asia.
  2. Coordination of the Caspian oil carrying consortium with the reinforcement of oil carrier by Russia and the joining of Kazakhstan to the Bulgas-Aleksandapol project will increase the exportation of Kazakh oil to the territory of Russia and will limit Astana’s long-term dependence on Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline.
  3. The construction of a new oil pipeline from Turkmenistan to Russia and the strengthening of the old routes will tie up Russian-Iran gas carrying systems. Taking into consideration the existence of Iran-Armenia and Russian-Georgia-Armenian gas pipeline, this tie-up will become out-territorial embracing the territories of South Caucasus and the Central Asia.

The above mentioned circumstances have come to prove that the developments in the energy field step into a new important and active stage, which proves that it is the high time to work out RA energy security conception.

1 According to the very source, there have been rumors that A. Redjebov intended to reattempt disjoining Lepabian villayet from Turkmenistan with the help of China and Uzbekistan, which was to result the making of a new state or this villayet was to join with Uzbekistan as a self-governing unit.


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