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21.01.2008

ON A NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS LEFT OUT OF COVERAGE IN 2007

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

foreign_policy (medium) The American authoritative analytical newspaper “Foreign policy” devoted the main article of its last issue of 2007 to the ten important developments and events left out of the coverage of international information and analytical circles. And this, in case, when a number of not elucidated developments can have an important role in the future international political developments.

The beginning of international cyber-wars

The year 2007 will always be remembered as the date alarming the beginning of cyber-wars. It’s noteworthy that during the previous year Russia and China were striking overall attention by their positive acquisitions in the war conducted in the international internet and program network, in case, when the west was making steps to shatter the positions of Russia and China. Thus, at the end of April, European and American agencies and structures were surprised when Russian hackers destroyed the Estonian quite contemporary and developed electronic-information system within a few days. During these few days, as a counter-action of the Tallinn anti-Russian policy, were completely destroyed or taken under control the sites of Estonian information agencies, ministries, including the ones of Defense and Home Affairs, the main national banks and institutions, and what is more important, the internal network. The Estonian governmental and presidential sites were also taken under control. It is more probable that the attacks, organized at a high level, were directed or carried out by the Russian security services.

The west had to face the second big surprise in June, when the official Pentagon announced that the special sub-unit of the Chinese military forces managed to influence on the part of US Defense Ministry Internal network system used by the consultants and assistants of the minister Gates, as a matter of fact getting access to materials and messages of utmost importance.

And at the end of the previous year the British M15 sent special letters to the western intelligences and companies producing military techniques with the context that London had fixed the network strikes of the Chinese military intelligence to the networks of these structures and the information bases of the subdivisions.

To preserve the US positions in the above mentioned developments, in September the US air force leadership made a decision to set up a new Cyberspace Command involving 500 leading professional programmers. The subdivision will be shaped up in 2009: it will become the greatest structure of its kind in the world, the main function of which is to be impediment of activation of Russian and Chinese positions.

Creation of the American Navy base in Iraq

Although in the year of 2007 the discussions on withdrawing the American military forces from Iraq became more active in the US internal life, however, in the very year Pentagon made an important step to preserve the US long-lasting military presence in Iraq. In November the leadership of American military navy held the official opening of the new navy base located close to a biggest oil terminal Khor al-Amaya, in the Iraqi part of Persian Gulf, which was however very little elucidated by press. The oil terminals Khor al-Amaya and the one Basra, located not far from it, are of most important significance in the international oil market. It may at least be mentioned that these two terminals may provide 10% of the world oil shipment and export. Let’s also mention that during the last year the Iraqi oil sharply fortified its positions in the US home market. In 2007 in the list of oil exporting countries to the US, Iraq jumped to the 6th place from the 11th only yielding to Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, according to the opinions voiced in the American analysis recently, the US dependence on the Venezuelan oil should be lessened on the account of Iraqi oil, as a result of which the positions of Iraq and Venezuela may change in the list of oil importing countries to the US.

According to the official Pentagon, after the military base of Khor al-Amaya is established and fortified, it will be handed over to the Iraqi Navy. On this occasion “Wall Street Journal” mentions, that the prospective of the Iraqi Navy to be established is vary vague, as at present the American seamen still teach the Iraqis rescue facilities. And “Foreign Policy” mentions that if there is any connection between the withdrawal of the American seamen and establishment of the Iraqi navy, the American military forces will stay in Iraq still quite a long time.

It is also obvious that the establishment of the American military base in Iraq aims at strengthening Washington’s positions in its negotiations with Tehran from the military and strategic standpoint. A new stage of this conflict may begin after the presidential elections expect to be held in the US and Iraq in 2008 and 2009 accordingly. The positions of Iran in Persian Gulf obviously suffer after the creation of the American military base, as the Iraqi military base is acute reducing the significance of the Iranian Navy’s comparative control over the strain of Hurmuz. More frequent recent conflicts between the Iranian and American strategists are also conditioned by this.

Weakening of the US “Israeli lobby” positions

In the beginning of September 2007 the US leading book-stores were flooded by the book by S. Walt and J. Mearsheimer “Israeli lobby”, which showed an unprecedented rate of sale. In their book the authors express an opinion that the supporters of Israel have a great influence in the American political field and should they desire, they may lead the Washington home policy in the direction favorable for Tel Aviv. This reality is presented by the authors as a threat to the US security. A week after the book was published was issued a new research devoted to the change of views of American Jews to Israel. In their introduction the co-authors of the research-work, S. Cohen from Hebrwe Union College and A. Kelman from University of California, Davis, mention that “the feeling of interconnection (between the US Jews and Israel) may change, as welfare gives way to indifference, and indifference - to alienation.” So, the study of the approach of 1704 non-Orthodox and under 35 American Jews has come to show that only 48% of them will consider the destruction of the Republic of Israel to be a “personal tragedy.” At the same time only 54% of the ones inquired say that they feel well when realize that there is a Jewish country in the world.

Let’s also mention that in the US there is also not a little number of Jews who are not against destruction of Israel. Here one first of all should remember a well known interview of Aaron Russo in 2006, where he mentioned not only the opinion of his ex-friend N. Rockefeller expressed a year before the September 11 that American military hegemony should be established in the Middle East and one only needs a good occasion, but also suggested to destroy Israel and found it in the US state of Arizona.


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