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26.02.2009

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND NEAR EAST

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

0-nabucco_map (medium)The beginning of 2009 was marked by the developments of political, military and economic character, which may cause some changes in the situation in Central Asia and Near East. The activation of implementation of “Nabucco” project, the new quality of collaboration between Turkey and Iran in the sphere of energetic, the decision of authorities of Kirgizstan to withdraw American military base from the country must be regarded as the most important ones.

“Nabucco” and the accession of Turkey to the EU

Turkey was one of the countries which suffered from the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis most of all. Though the “Blue stream” gas pipeline directly connects Russian and Turkish gas systems and allows supplying Russian gas by that pipeline laid on the Black Sea seafloor directly to Turkey, but western Turkish provinces supply their gas demand by Russian gas, delivered through the territory of Bulgaria. The interruption of Russian gas supply through Ukraine caused the situation when the western regions of Turkey were deprived of Russian blue-sky fuel.

Though Russian Gazprom, Turkish national oil company and “Botas” had solved the problem of the increase in the amount of gas pumped through the “Blue stream” and managed to solve the problem of the gas supply to the western regions of Turkey, Turkish authorities could use the Russian-Ukrainian discrepancies in order to forward their political and economic interests.

On January 19 Turkish prime-minister R.T. Erdogan, who was in Brussels on the EU entry talks, cast a doubt on economic expediency of “Nabucco” and stated that his country was going to reconsider its approach to that project. He also mentioned that Turkey would not support the “Nabucco” project if Brussels did not reconsider its position on the demands of the liberalization of the energy sphere, which was connected with the issue of Turkey’s accession to the EU. “If we reach a deadlock, then, naturally, we shall reconsider our position”, - said Erdogan while speaking on the issues of “Nabucco” and the accession of Turkey to the EU.

It should be mentioned that it is the first time that Turkey has spoken about the expediency of “Nabucco”. It is obvious that the position of that country on “Nabucco” project has not changed and it could not even change as the construction of the pipeline will be of great political and economic benefit for Turkey. The fact that Endogan put “Nabucco” in question can be regarded as the blackmail in order to boost the accession of Turkey to the EU, which became possible at the moment when Europe felt the unreliability of the gas pipeline going through the territory of Ukraine on its own back.

After Erdogan’s critical statements in Brussels he entered into negotiations with the president of European Commission Borroso. After the high-level negotiations between Turkey and the EU Borroso said that, anyway, Turkey and the EU had reached the agreement on the issue of the construction of “Nabucco” pipeline. However, in Barruso’s opinion there is no necessity to tie “Nabucco” with the accession of Turkey to the EU. At the same time he said that if Turkey helped Europe to diversify gas supply and to lessen their dependence on Russian fuel, this would have positive influence on public opinion in Europe, which have rather cautious relation to the prospect of big Muslim country’s accession to the EU.

On January 20 Barroso came forward with the suggestion to promote the work with Turkey in order it could join the EU as soon as possible. And this will promote to the magnitude of the European Union and “will enhance its energy security”.

The January ended providing two more evidences of the enhancement of the positions of Ankara in the relation between Turkey and the EU. Firstly, the summit on the issues of the “Nabucco” pipeline construction on January 27 in Budapest once more came to prove the significance of Turkey for the energy and economic security of the EU and underlined the importance of its membership to the EU. Secondly, the growing significance of Turkey for the EU, probably, let its prime-minister act aggressively (which is unacceptable for any European leader) with the president of Israel Sh. Peres. At the same time the behavior of the Turkish prime-minister was determined by another important factor: the Islamic administration of Turkey tries to present the interests of Muslim world. The latest developments, including the steps made in the direction of the accession of Iran to “Nabucco” project, show that the Turkish authorities also added some economic constituent to their policy.

The stirring up of Iran in the regional energetic projects

Recently Turkey especially has been trying to emphasize the role of Iran in the issue of Europe energy security. In his speech in the Center of European policy in Brussels Erdogan said that one could hardly supply the necessary amount of gas, i.e. 30 billion of cubic meters, to provide the work of “Nabucco” pipeline. According to Erdogan “Nabucco” can make sense in case if gas is pumped to Europe not only from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan but also from Iran. The talks on Turkish-Iranian energy collaboration began at the beginning of the year and this was caused by the visit of Ali Larijani, the spokesman of Iranian parliament, to Ankara. As a result the ministers of energetic of Turkey and Iran were given a commission to stir up the negotiations on the intensification of collaboration and implementation of joint programmes in the sphere of gas. The pipeline Erzurum – Tabriz, built as back as 2001, creates rather good background for the accession of Iran to “Nabucco”. This pipeline supplied Turkey on average with 8 billion cubic meters of gas annually; meanwhile, the capability of that pipeline allows supplying three times as much gas.

After the developments which took place in South Caucasus in August, when it became clear that Georgia was not reliable as a transit country, the possibility that Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will join the South Caucasian pipeline has sharply lowered. Today Azerbaijan, in fact, is the only Caspian country ready to take part in “Nabucco” project not only on paper but also practically. Neither Turkmenistan, nor Kazakhstan has made any practical step to become a part of that project and they would hardly do. Under such conditions Ankara realizes that in order to implement the “Nabucco” project and to get necessary financial and political dividends they need to include Iran, which has rather vast gas resources, in that project. There is such an approach in Europe too, on the level of political and economic actors. On the summit in Budapest the necessity of developing of cooperation with Iran was also stated by the executives of the companies, which are involved in the implementation of “Nabucco” pipeline, including the author of the project and one of the main lobbyists the vice-president of Austrian “OMV Gas & Power GmbH” company G. Bogart.

The main difficulties, which may emerge owing to the accession of Iran to the “Nabucco”, are conditioned by the position of Washington as the new administration of the US, in spite of the different analysis, has not elaborated and presented its own “Iranian policy” yet. However, today there are rather good grounds for the improvement of the relations between Iran and America, especially, if we take into consideration those difficulties, which will arise after the withdrawal of their military base from “Manas” in Kirgizstan. This will bring to the shift of the power and will directly influence the relations between Iran and the US.

Developments in Central Asia

The decision of the authorities of Kirgizstan to remove troops from the territory of their country brings the situation in the region back to 2001 when the US had no military presence in Central Asia. When in 2001 Washington after the agreement with Moscow opened military bases in Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan, the main aim of the US was to implement military actions in Afghanistan. After the fall of Taliban regime the military bases were not withdrawn from the region, though there was an impression that the Afghani problem was solved and there was no necessity to keep those bases. The Russian-American discrepancies concerning those military bases, (those discrepancies were called by Russian analyst F. Lukyanov “war of nerves”) disappeared in February 2009 when Kirgiz authorities under the obvious pressure of Russia and on the assumption of compensation made a decision to close “Manas” Air Force base. This is a very important decision of strategic character, which is the evidence of the consolidation of Russian positions in the region. Unlike 2003 when the Pentagon produced different fabricated reasons in order to preserve its military presence in Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan, the situation is quite different today; the military presence in Central Asia is of vital importance for Washington as the situation in Afghanistan recently has really become tense and dangerous. And under such circumstances Kirgizstan, and in fact Russia, make the US withdraw from the region.

How is the US going to solve the problem of reinforcement, supply and support of their troops when they have lost their bases in Central Asia and when Pakistan becomes even more dangerous transition area for the Americans? The news that Washington tries to offer Tajikistan to open air force base on its territory comes to prove the slackening of the US positions and the entanglement of the situation. Tajikistan is not only the ally of Russia, it is also a country, which has close tights and broad cooperation with Iran, and there are many Islamists and radicals fraught with hatred towards the US. It is obvious that if Washington cannot make terms with Russia concerning the military base in Tajikistan, then it needs at least to carry out the consent of Tehran. Iran until recent times has great resources to escalate the situation in Tajikistan, which is at civil war now, and it is out of question that there cannot be any American military presence without the consent of Iran.

This is really a very important factor that can boost the dialogue between the US and Iran. It can start not now but in several months when Iran embarks on a new stage of presidential relations.

However, the beginning of 2009 initiates serious changes in regional military and political developments, which may also cause the change of general situation and the shift of powers.


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