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13.04.2006

Iranian atom, situational analyzes

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan 

On March 30 the UN Security Council (SC) appeared with a special announcement on nuclear problem calling for the Iranian authorities to stop uranium enrichment work within a month.

The decision made by the UN Security Council is a result of corresponding compromise reached among the permanent members of the Security Council. Russia and China were against imposing sanctions on Iran. Before the UN SC was held, some news were spread in mass media, that the US and Great Britain took appropriate steps to discredit and weaken pro-Iranian position of China and Russia.

The above mentioned information made the position of China and Russia firmer.

It is not excluded that the Americans themselves were the initiators of these news to be spread. According to us, at present the frustration of any American initiative to impose sanctions against Iran in the UN SC is advantageous for the US. It is mainly explained by the fact that today the US is not ready to confront the negative economic subsequences the international economy will face in case of imposing economic sanctions against Iran. From this standpoint, the technology of the failure of work to apply sanctions caused by “not-constructive” approach of Russia and China is considered to be a success.

At the end of April will expire the term given by the UN SC to Iran to suspend Uranium enrichment work. Today it is obvious that Iran will hardly limit its actions.

At the same time April will become an active period of time to resume Iran-IAEA negotiations. Iran’s cooperation with IAEA aims at showing that not meeting the IN SC demands the Islamic republic is still inclined to settle the nuclear problem by diplomatic means.

From the standpoint of giving the problem military solution, the military trainings carried by Iran have an important symbolic significance. The military trainings held in Persian Gulf aimed at showing the international community that Iran was ready to counter attack any possible military intrusion or air attack by the US. It is noteworthy that the main stress by the Iranian military forces was put on anti-submarine craft experiments aiming at pointing out that in case of any possible attack Iran will resort to expansive counter-attack in the territory of Persian Gulf, targeting there not only the American warships but also oil producing tankers. Thus, the Iranians point out that in case of possible military moves they will not only sustain the supply of Iranian oil to the international market but will also hamper oil export to a number of Arabic countries.

Except for oil factor, some processes have been livened up in Iraq, where the Iranian basis is still quite strong. The announcements made by C. Rice and J. Strow that the US and Great Britain don’t want to see Al-Dawa party of Irakian Shias and their leader Jaafari as the main players in the Iraqi government, may cause important changes in inner-political processes carried on in Iraq. The alienation of Jaafari and Al-Dawa from Iraqi inner political processes is both dangerous for Iran and impracticable.

The announcement of C. Rice, which is in the main presented as steps directed to stabilize situation in Iraq, in reality, according to us, may only make the things worse.

In political circles of Shia Muslims there isn’t any political direction or figure enjoying wide popularity and completely advantageous for the US. Dawa’s exclusion from Iraqi government will not stabilizing the situation in Iraq and at the same time will farther political rivalry followed by new military actions. This rivalry-resistance will rise up not only among Shia and Sunni Arabs and Kurds but also among Shias, different grouping of which will aspire to hold the office vacated by Jaafari and Dawa. Such confrontations increase the possibility of expansive civil war to begin in Iraq, which will have an important significance for the US and Great Britain to legitimize their long-term presence in Iraq. It is necessary both for American Republicans and British Liberalists, the policy of which carried in Iraq is not well supported by electors.

At the same time there are also some opinions that in reality the US is going to strike military blows on Iran’s nuclear objects. The article of a well-know journalist Seymour Hersh, published on April 9 in “New Yorker” magazine, let us know about the possibility of it to be carried out. According to him the American authorities are going to blow a strike on Iran and one of the scenarios worked out by Pentagon doesn’t exclude the usage of B61-11 anti-bunker tactical nuclear weapon to wipe out underground nuclear objects.

According to Hersh, whose speech was also broadcasted on CNN, as for the developments in the US home policy, George W. Bush is not much concerned about the forthcoming elections of the Congress.

On the same Sunday, on April 9, the Iranian part informed that Iran’s air-raid forces made the situation tense by crashing an American reconnaissance plane, which intruded into the country’s airspace.

In spite of the fact that both the article of Hersh and the destruction of the reconnaissance aircraft could actually indicate a possible military clash between Iran and the US, it is not excluded that it is a spade-work furthering forthcoming negotiations on Iraqi issue between Iranian and American parties. In this context one can also observe the anti-shia announcement made by C. Rice in Baghdad.

It is obvious that during Iranian-American negotiations will not be discussed only the Iraki problem. Even if only this problem is discussed, one may suppose that the American part, which initiated the meeting, wants to reach certain agreements with Iranians on Iraq’s inner political developments. And the announcement made by C. Rice on the eve of the meeting might aim at showing the Iranians that the US is also ready to dispute the claims of pro-Iranian leaders in Iranian inner political developments. This must make the Iranians put in more moderate claims at the expected negotiations with the Americans.

According to us, the announcement of Rice, Hersh’s article, the destruction of the American reconnaissance plane and the forthcoming negotiations are the processes of one chain.

It is probable that the whole April will be full of such sensational announcements, publications and initiatives. At the end of April, when the UN SC discusses the Iranian issue one more time, the development of the Iranian nuclear program will get in a new phase, the consistent part of which will more become discussions on possibilities to apply sanctions then their application.


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