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11.10.2006

Burgas - Aleksandropolis oil-pipeline

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan 

On September 4, in Athens the leaders of Russia, Greece and Bulgaria signed a declaration on completing an agreement to construct Burgas (Black Sea coast of Bulgaria) – Aleksandropolis (a port of the Adriatic Sea in Greece) oil pipeline in 2006. This oil pipeline is to be filled with Russian oil, which will be transported by ships from Novorossiysk to Burgas. In spite of optimistic information spread by Russian mass media, the main agreement on constructing the oil pipeline is not signed yet. The oil pipeline to be built will have a capacity of transferring 50 million tons of oil per year from the Black Sea to the Adriatic, thus getting on equal footing with Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline. The article below presents the analysis of consequences the oil pipeline may have for Turkey and its energetic prospective.

Reduction of Russia’s dependence on Turkey

Bosporus and Dardanelles have many centuries had strategic importance for Russia. In the second half of the 20th century, besides military political significance, the strait acquired an important role in exporting Russian oil to the west. In the beginning of the 20th century, in the pricelist of goods exported to Russia, oil component made 67% of the total cost.

In 1990s Turkish government was upsetting work of the strait aiming at encouraging the construction of an oil pipeline from the Caspian to the Mediterranean. This goal was completely reached in 2006. Baku- Ceyhan and the strategy of its exploitation purposefully separate exportation of Azerbaijan’s and Kazakhstan’s oil from the route Russian oil is exported, which will give Russia and its allies a chance to make a better use of the strait to influence on relations with Russia. In its turn it may make Russia cooperate with Turkey more actively to build Samsun- Ceyhan oil pipeline, which will allow Russia to export its oil from the Black Sea passing round the strait. However such a prospective can not be attractive for Russia. Up-to-date energetic policy adopted by the latter is based on two main points – uninterrupted exportation and control over the exportation route. In case of Turkey, shattering of these two points is obvious.

Making use of the territories of Bulgaria and Greece for exporting oil, Russia is likely to reach its goals. It is not conditioned by the mere fact that Bulgarians and Greeks are too trustful or pro-Russian. Russia just realizes that:

  • Bulgaria depends on Russian oil and gas exports, which will not allow it to upset the work of oil carrier even ignoring special opinion of powerful Washington on Sofia. Besides the profit of transit will play an important role for Bulgaria’s not that big state budget.
  • Greece will acquire a chance to reduce its dependence on Turkey’s oil and gas pipelines and straits to ensure its own energetic security.

Reduction of Greece’s dependence on Turkey

During the last decade “Turkish policy” carried out in Greece was formed under the influence of energy factor. Greece’s consent to Turkey’s membership to the EU was to great extent conditioned by that factor. All the energy programs for Greece (Iran-Turkey-Greece-Europe, Russia-Black Sea-Turkey-Europe gas pipelines) envisage Turkey’s active and axial participation in them.

In Bulgaria, from this standpoint of constructing the oil pipeline, not only reduces Greece’s dependence on the pipelines passing through Turkey’s territory, but turns Greece into an important factor of international energy security. Besides, in comparison with Baku- Ceyhan, the “filling” of which depends on a number of regional developments (construction of an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to Baku, stability in Azerbaijan and Georgia, the problem of Turkish Kurds, Iran’s nuclear program, etc.) the extent of Russian and Kazakh oil, reaching to Novorossiysk, will make functioning of Burgas-Aleksandropol oil pipeline long-lasting and stable.

Reduction of dependence on Turkey may be used by the Greek government to make Athen’s attitude rougher to Turkey’s membership to the EU.

Reduction of international importance of Bosporus and Dardanelles

It may seem strange, but Turkey itself has reduced its own role of political geography. Turning Ceyhan into the state’s main energetic gates and the “strait policy”, streaming from it, led to reduction of political and economic significance of Bosporus and Dardanelles. It is obvious that Turkey will not be deprived of its important role; however Ankara loses an important privilege, which has been used for centuries to influence on regional and even international political and economic processes.

Ceyhan is a Turkish port. However its stable and long-lasting work will depend on the policy carried by Turkish government least of all. Energetic importance of the port may shatter in a day if, for example, a new political crisis brakes out in Georgia or if Kurdish terrorism captures Turkey’s transit zone.

The construction of Burgas-Aleksandropolis oil pipeline will ultimately deprive Bosporus and Dardanelles straits of their energetic significance and will force them out of the rank of Suez, Hormuz, Malaka straits which are important factors of international energy security.


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