• am
  • ru
  • en
print version
20.03.2008

US-TURKEY-AZERBAIJAN: A FORMAT OF NEW ENERGY COOPERATION

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

During the last years one could observe the US positions strengthening process in the Central Asia. The matter first of all concerns strengthening of the US and Turkmenistan relations in the energy and political fields. Azerbaijan is not devoid of this process as well and spares no efforts to involve Turkmenistan in the energy projects realized by its participation.

The first signs of deepening relations

One could observe deepening of Turkmen-American relations in summer of the previous year. On June 20, 2007 the chief commander of the US Central Headquarters, the admiral V. Falony visited Ashgabat. The president of Turkmenistan and the US military commander discussed issues concerning to territorial security as well as the energy field. Let’s mention that within the framework of the non-official summit of the CIS countries held on June 10 in Saint-Petersburg after the interruption of five years took place the first meeting of the presidents of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan and a decision was made to reopen the Turkmen embassy in Baku. Five days after the visit of V. Falony to Turkmenistan the US deputy assistant secretary of state E. Feigenbaum for South and Central Asian affairs visited Ashgabat. During the meeting with the American diplomats the president of Turkmenistan G. Berdymuhammedov announced that his government treated the prospective of joining the Trans-Caspian gas carriers quite seriously as a result of which Turkmenistan would be provided a chance to enter the EU market through the territories of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

In the very June a number of the US high ranking officials visited Azerbaijan the most important of which was probably the visit of the deputy assistant secretary for the US National Security G. Wood. After the American diplomats have met the latter one and the Minister of Industry and energy N. Aliyev they announced that involvement of the countries of the Central Asia and first of all Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in the regional energy projects was of utmost importance for the US national interests.

Deepening of relations

In the beginning of 2008 it became obvious that the improvement of Turkmenistan’s relations with Azerbaijan and the US was of military and long-term character. The crisis stirred by the Turkmen authorities in the field of energy cooperation with Iran resulted acute worsening in Iran-Turkmenistan relations. Let’s mention that up till recently Iran was the only not Russian gate of Turkmenistan from the standpoint of exporting gas to Turkey and the EU. During the last years most of the experts working in the field of European and American energy policy were inclined to think that the only possible route to export the Turkmen gas to the EU was Iran. However, in the beginning of 2008 the Turkmen authorities seem to be deliberately spoiling relations with Teheran. The only explanation is that beginning from the middle of 2007 improvement in Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan-US relations has become more real and long ranging which will probably result Turkmenistan’s joining the construction project of Trans-Caspian gas carrier.

On January 17 the newly established Turkmen-Azerbaijani intergovernmental commission for economic cooperation held its first meeting. While meeting the Azerbaijani co-chairman of the commission and the deputy prime minister of Azerbaijan Y. Zyubov the president of Turkmenistan mentioned once more that he had serious expectations in connection with his country’s participation in energy projects realized in the South Caucasus. And in February 13 the US state secretary C. Rice announced that the US State department will open a new high ranking position of a coordinator of energetic diplomacy. The new officer of the State Department should pay special attention to the territories of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, where one could observe certain increase of Russian influence.

Let’s mention that during the hearings held in Senate the senator R. Lugar appeared with the demand to create the new position. He announced that in case of lack of attention the US will lose the Central Asia once and forever. On February 15 the position of the coordinator of the energetic diplomacy was occupied by S. Mun, who in his time played a significant role in project realization of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil carrier. And on February 28 S. Mun made an official visit to Turkmenistan and met the country’s president. The main results of the country may be considered:

  • S. Mun announced that he was officially informing the Turkmen authorities about the readiness of the US leading companies to take part in realization and financing of energy projects.
  • The US government is ready to support penetration of leading American technologies into Turkmenistan as well to organize Turkmen national stuff training programs both in the territory of Turkmenistan and the US.
  • Moreover, the US government is ready to support conducting independent audit of Turkmen gas and oil resources by the American companies.

Let’s mention that independent audit of energy resources is mainly being carried out for two purposes:

  1. To find out the real extent of resources and make detailed program of future investments.
  2. To announce about existence of “considerable resources” and in that way make a basis to reason the US extremely high political and economic intrusion.

In any case the above mentioned facts have come to prove that the US-Turkmenistan energy and political relations are stepping into a qualitatively new stage. To insure steady process of Turkmen-American approachment, it is important for Turkmenistan to join the construction project of Trans-Caspian gas carrier. However, this, in its turn, will be possible only in case there are no more Turkmen-Azerbaijani controversies on the status of the Caspian Sea and ownership of the mines.

Here as well one can witness interesting developments. In February-March have been held a number of important meetings devoted to the status of the Caspian Sea. At that, the main subject discussed at the meeting of I. Aliyev and the prime minister of Turkmenistan R. Meredov was the Caspian Sea status problem. It is noteworthy that none of the parties interprets the process of negotiations which makes a ground for the analysts to speak about possibility of an appropriate agreement to be signed in the near future. A well known Central Asian analyst M. Sariev, for instance, thinks that the issue of the status of the Caspian Sea will find its final solution in the near future, until the visit of Turkmenistan’s president to Baku, envisaged to be paid before the first half of the year is over. According to Sariev, both Ashgabat and Baku are under tough American pressure and will have to come to agreement.

And this means that there is a strong possibility of creating a new format of regional cooperation as a result of which the role of the energy transit of the South Caucasia will increase with all the negative and positive outcomes for the regional countries.


Return
Another materials of author