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18.06.2009

ON REGIONAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

1_ energy.jpg (original)There are at once two important events, which evidence that the recent developments in the sphere of energy are closely connected with our region. The main two topics of the summit “Natural Gas for Europe: Security and Partnership”, which took place on April 24-25 in the capital of Bulgaria Sofia, were the projects of the “Nabucco” and “South Stream” gas pipelines. “Nabucco” was also one of the main themes of “Southern Corridor: New Silk Route” summit, arranged by the EU on May 8 in Prague.

Summit in Sofia

“Natural Gas for Europe: Security and Partnership” summit, which was arranged under the auspice of the president of Bulgaria G. Pirvanov, even at the stage of arrangement, had received some ideological determinacy: the lessening of the energy dependence of the EU on Russia should be the main theme of that summit. This can be obviously seen from the opening speech of the president of Bulgaria placed on the site of the summit where he spoke about the diversification of the natural gas import sources, without which there can be no stable development of the EU. Besides, some negative developments could be seen in the relations between Russia and Bulgaria in March and April, which were mainly connected with the prospective “South Stream” gas pipeline. A number of deputies initiated long and heated discussions in parliament saying that Russia wanted to “grab” the gas and transport system of Bulgaria through the construction of that pipeline. Such discussions cannot be a mere chance. In all appearances they were directed to “throw a stone” at Russia and aimed to create positive informational and propaganda field for the discussion of the anti-Russian in its essence “Nabucco” project during the oncoming summit. It is not excluded that such developments in the policy of Bulgaria were determined by the talks between the president of the US B. Obama and the authorities of Bulgaria, on which the issues of the energy security were also discussed.

The decision of the Russian prime-minister V. Putin not to take part at that summit can be explained by those developments. Just before the summit, on April 21, Russia published “Strategic Approach to the legal base of the international partnership in the sphere of energy” document, which was opposed to the European approaches, which were based on the limitation of the authority of the exporting and transit countries in favour of the gas consumer countries. De-facto demarche of the Russian party influenced deeply the whole course of the summit as it passed without high-ranked representatives of the main exporting country (the brief speech of the minister of energy of Russia S. Shmatko was mainly criticizing).

This factor left an imprint not only on the course of the summit but also on its results. After the negative and hard valuation on behalf of Moscow, the president of Bulgaria G. Petrov offered to formalize in the declaration of the summit the priority importance not only of “Nabucco” but also of “all the other new projects”, including “South Stream” to the EU. During the press-conference the president of Bulgaria mentioned that “Nabucco” was not an alternative to the “South Stream”, and his country would try to implement both projects simultaneously.

At the same time the summit in Sofia exposed a number of other discrepancies, which came forward on the levels of international or regional partnership in the sphere of energy. Firstly, the position of Georgia, which was expressed by the prime-minister of the country, stood out. The main offers of official Tbilisi were connected not with the “Nabucco” but with the construction of “White Stream” gas pipeline, which had to range from the Caspian Sea through the territories of Azerbaijan, Georgia and go under the Black Sea to Ukraine and Europe. The approaches of Georgia may be regarded as more than strange not because of its being non-realistic but because the “White Stream” directly contradicts to the “Nabucco” project and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan gas pipeline.

In spite of the participation of Azerbaijan in that summit the true energy interests of Baku and its energy policy gives rise to the important discussions. Firstly, Baku still continues the negotiations with Russia on the selling of the whole amount of the exported gas to Russia. Secondly, the “Nabucco” gas pipeline will be independent from Azerbaijan. Unlike Baku-Ceyhan and Baku-Erzurum pipelines, there are no Azerbaijani companies involved in the construction of the pipeline and among the joint owners of the pipeline. Though the “Nabucco” is an advantageous project for Azerbaijan but if Baku starts to play by the EU rules, it can lose important political leverages, which have the energy exporting countries. Thirdly, it is not clear yet how the process of the settlement of the relations between Armenian and Turkey will influence the relation between Baku and Ankara. According to the authoritative British “The Daily Telegraph” “Energy security fears over Armenia-Turkey talks” article, published on May 7, amid the regulation of the relations between Armenia and Turkey Baku can turn to Russia and this may threaten the future of the “Nabucco”.

Summit in Prague

The “Southern Corridor: New Silk Route” summit, arranged in Prague, was the direct extension of the summit in Sofia but it was devoted only to one project – “Nabucco”. One of the important events of the summit was the signing of the declaration on the “Nabucco” construction. It mentions the importance of the gas pipeline and declares that the interstate agreement on the construction of the gas pipeline should have been signed by the end of the June. But the most important point about this is that the declaration was signed only by four countries – Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Egypt. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan refused to sign it. In fact, the “Nabucco” project, which was created to get gas from the countries of the Central Asia and Iran, is carried out without those countries. The signs of recent rectification of the relations between Iran and the West may lead to the situation when Iran can join the project. But this may not happen either. Eventually, the energy policy of Iran has been based on full sovereignty for 30 years and it seems to be highly questionable that Iran is ready to play by European rules and to restrict the control over its own energy carriers as well as to give up on huge political dividends, which are possessed by the countries, which export their energy carriers independently.

The signing of the declaration on the construction of the “Nabucco” is the initial stage that should be passed to implement the project. It is neither known nor guaranteed that the projects will succeed. But some very important factors, which are of great importance for Armenia, should be mentioned. Those factors are:

1. The current variant of the “Nabucco”, according to which one of the branches of the pipeline will be built in the line of Turkey-Iran, and the other, in the line of Georgia-Azerbaijan, cannot be considered as positive for Armenia as it forms basis for the creation of the new dividing lines in the sphere of energy.

2. At the same time the project of the pipeline is not final yet and it can change. It means that Armenia can embark on the process to join the project. The unsettled conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not mean that Armenia loses automatically the prospects of becoming a part of the project. It is important to involve all the resources, which can emerge in the course of the rectification of the Armenian-Turkish relations, as well as the resources we have in the relations between Armenia and Iran.

3. The possible implementation of the pipeline project will form the basis for boosting the regional energy partnership and will intensify the struggle for the energy resources in the South Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. In this case it is important for Armenia to make steps to acquire energy assets as a guarantee to prove the national competitive ability. The energy spheres of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Iraq and even Iran move in a way of liberalization and become open for the foreign investors. The prospects of taking advantage of that do not seem rather unreal for Armenia.


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