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12.10.2009

DEVELOPMENTS ROUND THE NUCLEAR PROGRAMME OF IRAN

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

Sevak Sarukhanyan (medium)The domestic political crisis in Iran which active stage was finished in July caused new political developments round the Islamic Republic. Because of the arrests of the EU citizens the relations between European countries and Iran sharpened. At the same time the processes connected with the Iranian nuclear programme activated.

This August the US president B. Obama laid down an indirect demand to Tehran to boost the collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and to meet the demands of IAEA and the international community connected with the Iranian nuclear programme and to take off all the concerns about it.

The second half of August and the beginning of September turned into the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear programme, into the weeks of discussions on possible military strike and the imposing economic sanctions against Iran and all these also put forward a big bunch of contradictions regarding international policy and security. At the same time, serious scandal was initiated by the French and the US foreign offices connected with the name of the IAEA secretary and his objectivity in the “Iranian issue”. On 25 August the Deputy Foreign Minister of France stated during the press-conference that his agency has all the grounds to blame IAEA and its Secretary General Mohamed El-Baradai in concealing a number of important facts concerning the Iranian nuclear project from the international community. According to French and latter to American diplomats very important information about the Iranian nuclear programme, which IAEA possessed, was not included in the latest report of the agency, and statements about that information were made by its Secretary General only during his press-conference, which are not legal arrangements and, in fact, they cannot serve as a bases for applying legal measures against Tehran. In its turn, the IAEA Secretary General stated that “these accusations have political background” and added that “such statements, which are directed to prevent the work of the specialists and are aimed to deprive the agency of the authority of the independent and objective structure; they flaunt the regulations of the Agency and must be prevented”.

But the latter developments, including new accusations by the American representative in the IAEA, came to prove that the scandal is not going to fade down. Touching upon those facts, which the IAEA secretary concealed, the American representative said that he meant the last statement by Baradei “that the relations with Iran are at the deadlock” and that statement was not included in the latest IAEA report. But in reality the IAEA report was devoted to the Iranian nuclear researches, applied its technical side and even with the best will in the world it could not include in its report such a statement of no-technical character as “the relations are at the deadlock”. As a rule, such estimations were given by the IAEA Secretary General at the press-conferences and official communications, which, really, deprive them of their legal position and turn them into the evaluations of political character. Both French and Americans are well aware of that and thus it would be incorrect to regard the accusations directed against El-Baradei from legal point of view. The problem is more of political character and can be conditioned by the following important factors:

  1. The US, France and Great Britain intend to raise the issue of the new economic sanctions against Iran at the UN General Assembly and Security Council sessions. The last IAEA report does not afford legal ground for such sanctions, as Iran’s entire nuclear activity, including the uranium enrichment, does not violate international legal norms and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Under such conditions while talking about the “concealed facts” the Western states create basis to start the discussions on the imposing of the sanctions which would not be based on the IAEA report.
  2. France has activated its “Iranian policy” in recent years, it tries to exert extra-pressure on Iran, and this is conditioned by the fact that the Ahmadinejad government makes everything to deprive French “Total” Oil and Gas Company of its multi-billion contracts with Iran and push it out of the Iranian energy sphere.
  3. Washington, in its turn, continues the political line, which was adopted during the presidency of George W. Bush, directed at the vitiation of the IAEA and pursues the aim to deprive the IAEA of the monopoly on the struggle against proliferation of the nuclear weapons and distribute those responsibilities among separate states, which will allow the US to assume the measures, including military measures, against one state or another in order to prevent the creation of the nuclear potential.

As for Iran, the scandalous situation around the IAEA created rather positive background for Tehran to continue the negotiations on its own nuclear programme from more favourable positions. M. El-Baradai and the IAEA indirectly became the defenders of Iran and the discrepancies in the international community give a bigger room for manoeuvre.

The discussions of the nuclear programme in Iran activated mainly at the end of August because the domestic political developments in Iran in July and August sidelined the public discussion. The open letter by the former presidential elections participant M. Karroubi to the Chairman of the Assembly of Experts Hashemi Rafsanjani in which he presented numerous examples and facts of violence in regard to the arrested oppositionists and the mass rapes of women in Iranian prisons pushed discussions on all other developments, including the discussions on nuclear programme, out of the Iranian political and information fields. This was also promoted by the process of the formation of the government.

But already at the end of August when Iran again rejected the proposal of the IAEA and the demand of B. Obama the nuclear issue re-gained its important place in Iranian political process.

Thus, on September 9 Iranian party presented another “reciprocal concession proposal” on nuclear issue to the IAEA and the “six” (Russia, USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, China) which aim was “to eliminate all the discrepancies between Iran and the “six”. Though the Iranian proposals were not voiced officially, according to European diplomats, there is “nothing new” in them and they do not imply the halting or the restriction of the uranium enrichment by Iran, which is the main demand made to Tehran. Though Iran agreed to negotiate over its package of proposals, no serious turnaround on its position can be expected from Iran. This is proved by the statement of the leader of Iran A. Khamenei made during his Friday Sabbatical on September 11: “You must stay firm in the protection of your legitimate interests in all the fields including nuclear one. The abandonment of your claims means defeat”.

Let us mention that such an approach by Iran, which has already become traditional, is conditioned not mainly by the nuclear programme but also by the developments in the domestic policy which took place in the Islamic Republic. The aggravation of the contradictions with the West can partially divert the attention of the society from the developments in the domestic policy and relax the domestic contradictions.

At present the top priority for Iran is the avoidance from the decisions about new sanctions which can be made at the sessions of UN General Assembly and Security Council. The EU and the US, despite their tough stance, would also like to avoid such a prospect because after the last sanctions imposed two years ago the next step should be the restrictions on buying Iranian oil to which the West is not ready, especially amid the financial and economic instability under the current global crisis.

The proposal of France to arrange the meeting between the high-ranked representatives of Iran and the “six”, which is now being arranged by the EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana, was conditioned by the aim to avoid the imposing of the sanction on Iran. Meanwhile, the information that Iran is building new uranium enrichment plant makes the negotiations even more complicated.

However, despite the fact that during such a meeting the ice around the Iranian nuclear programme would hardly melt, it can be a ground for the Western states not to impose serious sanctions on Iran. And as for Iran the situation round its nuclear programme is only playing into its hands, because the resumed negotiations, meetings and new official proposals legitimate the re-elected president of Iran and his government which became rather topical after the latest clashes, victims and arrests.


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