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14.02.2008

IRAN ON THE EVE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

During the last few months the Iranian internal political developments have been mainly progressing in the context of preparation of the main political powers for the elections to be held on March 14. The coming elections may exert big influence on Iran’s political and economic fields, although the parliament doesn’t have so much direct influence on the country’s life.

Being limited in its power, the Iranian Parliament is formed by the political powers either enjoying the support of various strata of society or representing the interests of the ruling spiritual, political, and, at the last years, also economic elite of the country. The coming parliamentary elections tend to make real changes in the Iranian parliament, as after the last parliamentary (2004) and presidential (2005) elections certain changes have been reported both in the society’s expectations and the interests of the country’s elite.

Public expectations

Within the three years of his presidency M. Ahmadinejad’s economic and social policy did not improve the welfare of the society. During the last 9 years in the economic life of Iran was reported an unprecedented high index of inflation – 25, 6%. The unemployment in the country during the last three years was cut by 2, 6%, although in the election program was presented the possibility of reducing it by 30%. According to the Iranian statistics service, there is a big rise of unemployment among the ones with higher education – 20%. At the same time, only 47% of those with higher education work by their profession. The other part is mainly engaged in trades, construction works or works as a driver.

During the last two years the reforms promised to be effected by the Iranian president, a part of which was directed to eliminating “economic” or “oil mafia” and, by some interpretations, to the reallocation of the economic elites’ property, were also responded quite negatively by the society. Let’s mention the last year “petrol crisis” in the country which was the result of the president’s decision to limit subsidizing of imported petrol. The decision influenced not only on the interests of those earning big deals of money through subsidizing, but also the consumers, who had to pay more for the fuel and appeared in quite an unusual queues for them at the petrol stations.

As a matter of fact, at the March 14 elections M. Ahmadinejad and the political powers directly supporting him will assume almost the same position as the ones who lost the elections of 2004, but in their time were enjoying social trust and considered to be “reformers.” Most of the promises, defined by the term of social populism by the president, have not been realized by M. Ahmadinejad.

However, this is not the only reason weakening the position of the powers supporting Ahmadinejad at the coming elections. There is one more factor as well: today the Iranian spiritual power doesn’t support the “extremist” M. Ahmadinejad, just like it didn’t support the “reformer” M. Khatami in his time.

“Neither extremists nor liberals”

In summer 2007 the Iranian influential and authoritative spiritual and political figure, one of the leaders of the Union of Struggling Clergy Hojetoleslam S. R. Akrami presented a view which described the approach of the country’s most of the spiritual elite to the powers aspiring to win at the parliamentary election during the past months and at present. He announced: “extremists and liberals have no place in the parliamentary elections. The nation should give its preference to decent, well known and even tempered politicians and not let the inexperienced ones and extremists to win seats in the parliament.” It is worth mentioning that not only the nation may impede the liberals and extremists to win seats in the country’s legislative body. The first reduction in the list of the candidates of 7200 will be made by the Council of Guardians consisting of 12 clergymen, which will hold a special session at the end of January. The experience of the previous elections has shown that not only marginal candidates may be cut away from the list of candidates, but also powerful and influential politicians.

“Extremists-reformers:” formation of a new political “center” in the political field of Iran

Discontent with Ahmadinejad’s policy has formed an interesting system of overall interests. During the last year two powerful politicians representing different political streams - the ex- president “moderate reformer” M. Katami and another ex-president, the newly elected head of the experts’ congress, “old conservative” or, as the western analysts often characterize him, “moderate extremist” A. Hashemi Rafsanjani, have gained the protection and support of A. Khameni. “Worming” of these two influential politicians may turn into out of parliament new alliance-coalition, which in the Iranian press is called “Extremists-reformers alliance.” Political scientifically is a question of forming a political center, in which, as S. R. Akrami has already mentioned, there will be no place both for extremists and liberals, although the liberals themselves have nether social, nor financial and political support to win the elections. It is obvious that the alliance of Khatami-Rafsanjani will be directed to the extremists themselves, who are gathered around M. Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Yazdi. The powers supporting Rafsanjani and Khatami are:

  1. A.A. Hashemi Rafsanjani – “Creators,” “Labor Islamic party,” “House of workers.”
  2. M. Khatami – “Cooperation” movement, the Union of Struggling Clergy, Islamic Revolution’s Mojaheds Organization.

Around M. Karubi affiliating them gathered “Nation trust party,” “Imam’s way power union” and “Democratic party.” The later ones represent the considerable part of the political camp of “Moderate reformers”.

Perhaps the representatives of these very powers have the best chances to win a victory in the parliamentary elections.

As for M. Ahmadinejad, the main powers supporting him are united in the camp of the “United front of Conservatives,” but the members of this alliance are also the political powers who are the defenders of Hashemi Rafsanjani, M. Rezayi and the mayor of Teheran M.B. Kalibaf voicing his criticism to Ahmadinejad. Thus, the formation of an alliance on the basis of a “front” is quite doubtful. Especially if it is taken into consideration the fact that in the “front” the president gets no direct support from the political powers under the control of the spiritual leader A. Khamenei. It is already obvious that A. Khamenei will provide no direct support to Ahmadinejad and the powers backing him. Apropos of this, the well known American specialist K. Katsman mentions: “The Iran’s spiritual leader treats Ahmadinejad as a person who may lead Iran to a serious confrontation, and he understands that it will do no good to Iran. I think that there is already a wide gap between them.”

Conclusions

The electoral struggle will get hotter within the coming month. The powers supporting Ahmadinejad may make serious attempts to strengthen their position using also the external factor. It is a question of making an attempt of making relations with the US tenser, which, as a rule, is not supported by non city dwellers Iranians.

Most probably the elections will be over by the victory of “centrist” powers, which will use the parliamentary elections to get ready for the elections of 2009. At present there is an opinion that the candidate of the “centrists” (more probably the mayor of Teheran Kalibaf) will become the main opponent of Ahmadinejad at the elections. However, it is still not time to speak about it as quite multipolar political processes in Iran may always create qualitatively quite new internal political situations.


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