• am
  • ru
  • en
print version
03.07.2008

IRAN: POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

On May 28 the newly elected parliament of Iran elected a new speaker. As a result of voting the new head of Majlis became the ex-president of Public Television and Radio, the former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani. Larijani’s victory may have an important influence both on the activity of Majlis and the course of events in preparation to presidential elections to be held next year.

The new parliament of Iran and coming presidential elections

In spite of the fact that A. Larijani represents the political wing of right conservators and during the elections for the post of speaker was supported by the president M. Ahmadinejad, his approaches are somehow different from the ones of the representatives of the president’s political team.

First: Ali Larijani, being a secular politician, has direct ties with Iran’s spiritual authorities. Apart from the fact that Larijani was born in the family of a clergyman, he is also the son-in law of a well-known ideologist of Islamic revolution M. Mottaki. It is quite an important precondition as the political plane of up-to-date Iran is little by little separating from spiritual authorities: it has come to be proved by the election of a secular president, M. Ahmadinejad, to the post of president as well as by the staff of Majlis today, the number of clergymen in which hardly exceeds 10%. In that way, in comparison with most of the representatives of Iran’s contemporary political plane, the “secular” A. Larijani is not only the ideological follower of clergymen but also their representative.

Second: A. Larijani, having enough conservative political ideas, is more than acceptable by the international community. It has come to be proved by the positive implication in reports and analyses of the western press in connection with his election. Heading the group engaged in negotiations with foreign countries on nuclear program, A. Larijani differs by his considerably mild position and steps made not only ones towards peaceful settlement of the nuclear program.

Third: A. Larijani was relieved of the post of National security secretary by the president M. Ahmadinejad. According to a number of international sources it is mainly reasoned by contradictions and complicated interpersonal relations between them. In this sense the election of A. Larijani is more probable to be considered a propagandistic step by M Ahmadinejad, as only a little part of conservatives making majority in the parliament support the president and their position couldn’t influence on the decision of all conservatives while electing A. Larijani to the post of the speaker.

All these have come to prove that quite an influential politician is heading the Iranian parliament. The activity of this politician may seriously raise the role of Parliament in the country’s political life. One of the peculiarities of Iran’s state system is that the role of parliament mainly depends on its leader. Let’s remember 1980-89s, when the speaker of Parliament was A.A. Hashemi-Rafsanjani – one of the most important figures of Iran’s state system who had direct influence on both home and foreign policy of the country.

The course of events of the coming 2009 presidential elections in Iran will considerably depend on the parliament, the position of its members and the chairman. There is a great probability that A Larijani may become the candidate of a considerable part of conservatives, in that way reducing the chances of M. Ahmadinejad to be reelection.

Teheran’s mayor, Mohammed Baker Kalibaf, is considered another possible candidate; however his nomination for presidency will mainly be conditioned by agreements with the very A. Larijani as at the last presidential elections Teheran’s mayor and the newly elected speaker of Parliament appeared in the framework of one political alliance.

Foreign challenges

During the past months the political developments around Iran became quite complicated. Iran’s tough position towards the nuclear problem hasn’t changed at all as a result of which in July-August of the current year the Iranian nuclear program will again be discussed in the UN Security Council. Should we judge by the announcements made by the Iranian president, the coming months are not expected to bring any mollification in Iran’s position. And this may cause new sanctions and further isolation of Iran. It is possible that the new package of sanctions, which may be applied to Iran, will have direct influence on Iran’s financial relation with the external world. This has come to be proved by the appeal of the president M. Ahmadinejad made on June 9 to the Iranian businessmen, state and private structures to withdraw all their funds from European banks. According to some information, Iranian funds in European banks make $80 billion, and their possible “arrest” may be a serious strike to the Iranian economy. Here one should take into consideration two more circumstances:

  • Withdrawal of Iranian funds from European banks may also cause damage to financial stability of Europe itself. It means that the appeal of Iran’s president may also be of propagandistic character and become the lever of influence on the Europeans’ position.
  • The policy adopted by M. Ahmadinejad stirs up discontent of the Iranian business circles having direct connection with the UN countries, as Europe is the economic partner number one for Iran both in the sphere import and export of goods: accordingly, the president’s appeal is also a strike to Iranian business circles: they may not be passive participants at the coming presidential elections and must support this or that candidate. It is not excluded that the Iranian president’s approach is connection with gaining a serious lever of influence on the country’s businessmen.

For Iran it is quite an important problem the further discussions on the Iranian issue in the UN SC. It is known that during the last years it has not been possible to apply sanctions to Iran because of the position of the two constant UN members - Russia and China. There are serious reasons to be concerned about possible changes in the position of these two countries.

First: There is a newly elected president in Russia, who can’t but have its own approaches to foreign political issues. Besides, in Russia and over its borders possible alleviation of tension between Russian-west relations is connected with D. Medvedev and his positions to topical international issues. For Iran it is also an important question how the further development in Russian-American relations may influence on the position of Russia to Iranian issues.

Second: On the eve of Olympic Games expected to be held in China, the anti-China campaign of the US has become an important lever of influence in the hands of Washington not only on American-China relations, but also on China’s approach to other states. Anti-China campaign held by the United States having domination position in the world information plane has made Beijing activate Chinese-American negotiations on different levels called to solve a number of vexed questions for Washington and Beijing. And under these conditions it is extremely important for Iran what kind of changes will be made in Beijing’s official position to Iran’s nuclear problem.


Return
Another materials of author