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30.10.2008

NEW IRAN-WEST DEVELOPMENTS

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

On June 2009 in Iran will be held presidential elections which will have important role for the country’s home and foreign policy. Iran’s relations with the West – US and EU, which have recently displayed a tendency of positive developments, will not be an exception.

Iran-US

The announcement made by Vice President of Iran I. Mashai on June 2008 at the conference devoted to tourism has acquired an important role in home policy processes and informational plane of the country. He announced: “none of the nations of the world is our enemy. Iran is the friend of the US and Israel and respects these states. We think that Americans are one of the greatest nations of the world.”

The announcement of Iranian Vice President is interesting in two aspects. First, Vice President is one of the associates of President M. Ahmadinejad, and from this standpoint his announcement may seem more than strange. Second, I. Mashai virtually recognized the existence of Israel as a state, which contradicts Israel’s foreign and regional policy.

Although a little later Iranian Vice-President announced that his wards were wrongly interpreted, however, the squall of criticism towards I. Mashai and M. Ahmadinejad did not lessen. A number of Iranian newspapers expressed opinion that Vice-President’s announcement was nothing else than the result of processes directed to improve relations with the US. According to Iranian press, about the possibility of improving relations have also come to prove the fact that M. Ahmadinejad not only didn’t criticize the announcement of his Vice-President, but also began defending him saying in his turn that Mashai’s wards were wrongly interpreted.

In August the discussions about Iran’s policy towards improving relations with the US acquired even greater might when after negotiations with Turkey’s Prime-Minister R. Erdogan, M. Ahmadinejad made a sensational announcement that the presence of American Armed forces in Iraq was of stabilizing significance both for Iraq and the whole region.

M. Ahmadinejad’s visit to the US in September was remarkable not only for criticism of policy carried out by Bush’s administration (at the session of the UN General Assembly and during the interview given to CNN) but also for the fact that I. Mashai, labeled in the Iranian press “friend of Zionists” and “betrayer,” was included together with President in the official Iranian delegation and took part in all the meetings.

Here it should be mentioned that I. Mahsai was included into the Iranian delegation after Iran’s spiritual leader A. Khamenei officially “criticized” the country’s Vice-President. On September 19, after Friday prays, A. Khamenei spoke about I. Mashai’s announcement as “mistaken.” The choice of the word “mistake” is quite symbolic as the spiritual leader of Iran never hesitated while characterizing Iranian politicians for their comparatively milder announcements. Khamenei many times called the suggestions of Iranian “reformers” to improve relations with the west “betrayal.” In case of Mashai’s announcement we for the first time have to do with the announcement about recognition of the state of Israel by high ranking Iranian officials. Criticism of Khamenei to this is very mild. It has come to prove that the information about negotiations of Iranian authorities directed to improve relations with the West may correspond to reality.

At the same time, the recent interesting developments in Russian-Iranian relations also have indirect connection with the US and Israel. In July the American TV Company «FOX News» broadcasted information that the big Russian financial-industrial company “Альфа-Груп” began making big investments in Iran. In particular the Russian company began buying Iranian organizations working in the communication field. These rumors were confirmed in Moscow during the meeting held in October between the RF President D. Medvedev and the main share-holder of “Альфа-Груп” company M. Fridman, the latter one announced that his company was preparing for investment expansion in Iran and Afghanistan. It is more noteworthy that M. Fridman who, according to “Forbes,” has $20.8 billion, according to some information is at the same time Russian and Israeli citizen. Besides, M. Fridman is Vice-President of European Congress in Russia, finances most of the European humanitarian programs, is the owner of the big oil company “TNK-BP.” At the same time beginning from 2007 he has been making big investments in Israel, has direct ties with Sh. Peres, B. Natanyau, A. Liberman and E. Olmert.

Under such circumstances M. Fridman’s investments in Iran may seem quite strange. Along with it, special attention is to be devoted to Iran’s position in the plane of stimulating investments of “Альфа-Груп” as by the kind and orientation of his activity M. Fridman is the classical embodiment of “Jewish lobby” in Russia so peculiar to Iran’s propaganda. Perhaps it will not be right to explain the stream of European investments to Iran by only Kremlin’s desire to establish better relations with Tehran. Probably explanation to this is also to be looked for in some positive developments one could recently notice in Iran-West relations.

Iran-EU

During the last two months one couldn’t but notice certain improvements in Iran-EU relations mainly connected with political situation of South Caucasia resulted by Georgian-Russian conflict.

Georgian-Russian conflict made a situation in the region directly connected with all the energy projects of South Caucasus in the process of realization. The project of the “Nabucco” gas pipe-line, the realization of which is very important from the standpoint of ensuring energy security of the EU, doesn’t make an exception. It is obvious that after the latest events Georgia will hardly be perceived to be a stable junction of oil and gas export from the Caspian Sea region.

From this standpoint “Nabucco” project’s future is more closely connected with establishing cooperation with Iran in the gas sphere. It is to be mentioned that negotiations between European and Iranian parties have become more active for the last weeks. Thus, in his speech at the conference devoted to the issues of energy security held in Tehran on October 5, the president of the Austrian gas company OMV M. Payser accentuated that in the future Iran must play an important role in world production of gas and “Nabucco” “provides a good opportunity for it.”

Let’s mention that the very Austrian company OMV is realizing “Nabucco” project, and it is possible that it will be the one to undertake its management and exploitation after the gas-pipeline has been constructed,

On October 5 the president of BOTAS Company announced that “Nabucco” must “fix its eyes” on other countries as well, and first of all on Iran. Two days after the announcements of OMV and BOTAS company heads, they were responded by the assistant of the US Deputy Secretary of State M. Brayza who mentioned that Washington was categorically against “Nabucco” to be used for transporting Iranian gas to the EU.

Is spite of the negative reaction of the American party, European companies go on conducting negotiations with the Iranian party with the objective of annexing it to “Nabucco” project. One can suppose that ascertaining of positive results in Iranian-European negotiations considerably depends also on the future of Georgia: If Georgia will not be able to restore its stability and fundamentally solve its problems with Russia, the role of Iran and Iranian gas for the EU will rise sharply.

However, one can state as a fact that there is certain progress in Iran-West relations. Yet, it is not enough to suppose that these relations will result acute improvement. However, for the moment there is certain grounding for it.


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