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29.01.2009

DEVELOPMENTS IN DOMESTIC POLICY OF IRAN

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

Iran (original)The presidential elections, which are to be held in June 2009 in Iran, and their probable developments are the main processes to influence domestic and foreign policy of the country.

The “surprise” of the reformers

On January 13th the ex-president of Iran M. Khatami made an unexpected statement that he was definitely going to take part in the forthcoming presidential elections and if he did not in some way, he and the “Union of struggling clergymen” which represents the reformers camp would put forward another candidate, the ex-prime minister Hussein Mussavi.

The statement by Khatami may cause very serious changes into the domestic political life of Iran. Down to recent times there was an opinion that the struggle for presidency would take place mainly between the representatives of the conservative camp. The main candidate of the reformers M. Kyarubi, who represented the “Union of struggling clergymen”, does not enjoy big popularity among people.

The return of Khatami to the domestic political arena may have a serious impact on the course and the results of the elections. For 8 years of his presidency (1997-2005) M. Khatami had not fulfilled most of his pledges, but his popularity among people still remained on a high level. It should be mentioned that, when in 2005 Khatami resigned from his presidency, the results of the opinion poles showed that more than the half of the respondents would like Khatami to remain as their president, though that was prohibited by the constitution.

It is also significant that H. Mussavi is the other candidate the reformers are going to propose in case if Khatami does not nominate for the elections. Though Mussavi represents reformers he can also be regarded as a soft conservative and an old revolutionary. In 1981-1989 H. Mussavi was the prime-minister of Iran and was in order of the present spiritual leader Ali Khamenei who was the president then and was in charge of the government.

Now Mussavi is the president of the Academy of Arts of Iran and he has never made any statement on domestic and foreign policy since he resigned from the post of prime-minister. Today he is a politician who stays in the background and the only thing we know about him is that he can keep good relations both with Ali Khamenei and former and present presidents A. Hashemi Rafsanjani, M. Khatami and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The candidature of Mussavi can de supported not only by reformers, but also by old conservatives who do not agree with radical reforms in foreign policy and social and economic spheres. Of course much depends on whether the conservatives, who are not pleased with the present president, can consolidate and present their alternative candidate.

It should be mentioned that H. Mussavi is Azerbaijani on nationality but the greatest scandal, which happened during his being the prime-minister was that he refused to lay a wreath to mausoleum of K. Atataturk during his official visit to Turkey.

The probable conservatives’ candidates

The conservatives’ candidates for the forthcoming presidential elections, according to Iranian mass media, are the speaker of their parliament A. Laridjani and the mayor of Tehran M. Kalibaf. They took part in the elections in 2005 but lost the election in the first round to A. Hashemi Rafsanjani and M. Ahmadinejad. Either Laridjani or Kalibaf have not confirmed that they will take part in the elections. Anyway, both politicians have every political reason to run as candidates for the elections.

Ali Laridjani strengthened his hand on the political field last year after he had been elected as a speaker of Iranian parliament. For recent months Laridjani could inject new life into the work of the parliament, boost legislative activity and began to pay more attention to the solution of social problems and making decisions. This has stimulated growth of his and parliament’s popularity.

A. Laridjani is also active on foreign policy arena, which is evidenced by his last visit to Ankara and his talks with Turkish prime-minister Erdogan connected with the arrangement of the recent conflict between Israel and the Arabs.

Laridjani has rather strong ties with the spiritual and religious institutions. Besides, Laridjani is a son of a high-ranked Shiah religious figure, he is also a son-in-law of highly respected ayatollah M. Motahari, and his brother A Laridjani is a member of Council of guardians. A. Laridjani is a classical conservative whose characteristic features are strong ties with religious institutions and figures. In such circumstances one can suppose that if Laridjani nominates for presidential elections he will be supported by rather influential religious figures who are displeased with the developments in the domestic policy, which have taken place during the presidency of M. Ahmadinejad.

Let us mention that one of the main effects of those developments was the income of the great number of militaries, intelligence officers and former police officers into the parliament and power institutions, which took place with the assistance and support of the incumbent president and all that happened mainly at the expense of the reduction of influence of the religious figures.

And as for Kalibaf, he also poses threat for the re-election of M. Ahmadinejad. Though he lost at previous elections, now he has incomparably more chances to win elections. This is conditioned by the success he has had solving problems in social, ecological, transport, sport and youth spheres, while managing city with multi-million population

In 2008 M. Kalibaf was declared one of the best eight mayors in the world. His influence in the capital is rather high. He is also influential in power institutions as he had been chief of Iranian police for six years.

Though the mayor of Tehran has not announced that he is going to nominate on presidential elections his nomination anyway is more than possible. Last year he focused on foreign policy issues, gave interviews and made statements in Western press and this may be regarded as the evidence of his intentions.

It is also significant that the mayor of Tehran is one of those conservatives who openly speak for the improvement of the relations with the USA. On December 13th, 2008 Kalibaf stated that “the world, American and Iranian societies will benefit” from the dialogue and relations between the US and Iran.

Conclusions

All the above mentioned processes and developments speak about possible reorganization in domestic political life and power institutions. The result of the forthcoming elections and the victory of M. Ahmadinejad are not to be predicted. A lot will depend on positive changes in relations between the US and Iran and the negative impact of world financial crisis on Iranian society. Those factors may take pre-election developments in non-linear way and cause social and political disturbances or rearrangements.


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