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20.04.2009

DEVELOPMENTS IN AND ROUND IRAN

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

M.Mousav (original)The recent political and international developments in and round Iran are mainly connected with two important factors. Those factors are the forthcoming elections and the new US Administration’s policy towards Iran, which is still at the stage of the formation. At the same time some developments can be observed in the line of “nuclear problem”, especially, taking into the account the resumption of the talks between Iran and “the six”.

Presidential elections

The statement of the former prime-minister M.Mousavi that he was going to take part in the presidential elections can be regarded as the main news in domestic policy of Iran in March. The ex-president of Iran M.Khatami kept his word and after the nomination of M.Mousavi, withdrew from the further struggle and he is going to support the candidature of the former prime-minister.

It is difficult to predict how the electoral campaign in Iran will proceed and who will get the support of the majority. M.Mousavi is a political figure who mainly stays in the shadow and he is not well-known within the Iranian society, which mainly consists of the youth. But the history shows that in 1997 M.Khatami won the elections when he was under the similar conditions.

In contemporary Iran, which goes through difficult political and economic developments, the appearance of such a new, but at the same time rather experienced political figure as M. Mousavi may obtain the support of the society. M. Mousavi, who was the prime-minister of Iran during the war between Iran and Iraq and the “victorious march” of Islamic revolution and who now represents the camp of the so called “reformers”, can take the place in the “centre” of the Iranian political field.

The “reformers-conservatives” two-polar political struggle model do not have the topicality in Iran it had ten or even five years ago. M.Khatami and M.Ahmadinejad, the representatives of different camps, in spite of some success they had during their rule, lost the credit of the people during the last years of their presidency. From this point of view, M. Mousavi, who is between the old and the new, may seem rather attractive and reliable for the Iranians. It is characteristic that almost all the Iranian political forces responded positively to the decision of the former prime-minister to take part in the forthcoming presidential elections. At the same time the dialogue between Iran and the US may greatly influence the elections.

Iran and the US

Almost all the international mass media touched on the video-message of the president of the US B. Obama to the Iranian people in connection with Nowruz, which was mainly regarded as a step to boost the Iran-US dialogue. At the same time the statements made by the president of the US, during meeting of the “G20” and with the president of Russia that the National Missile Defence is created to prevent the supposed attack of Iran and North Korea, evidence that the dialogue, nevertheless, goes in the ambiguous way. One may suppose that as against the negotiations between Iran and the US regarding Iraqi problem, that took place in Bagdad, today the matter of the negotiations and the dialogue is more global and strategic, and Israeli party, directly or indirectly, is also included in the process of the negotiations. This can be evidenced by rather “peaceful” felicitation of the president of Israel Sh. Peres to Iranian people in connection with Nowruz. He expressed hope for the improvement of the relations between the Iranians and the Israelis. At the same time on March 29 Lebanese “Al-Lava” newspaper issued the information that during recent days the secret Iranian-American negotiations on the regulation of state-to-state relations took place on the territory of American and later Iranian embassies.

The choice of Beirut and not Bagdad or Islamabad was conditioned arguably by the existence of Arab-Israeli problem as one of the main topics of the negotiations.

On April 8 the president of Iran M.Ahmadinejad announced in Esfahan that Iran “will of course shake the offered hand”, meaning the congratulations and the words of B. Obama. But he also mentioned that if it was not sincere B. Obama would get the same response as G. Bush.

In the US the developments round Iran are rather interesting too. The statement of the vice-president of the US J. Biden made on April 7 that he did not believe that the new prime-minister of Israel B. Netanyahu would order to deliver an air thrust on the nuclear infrastructure of Iran and otherwise he would be “ill advised”. This may be regarded as the first statement of American authorities, on such a high level, which excludes and condemns the military actions against Iran.

But, in spite of this statement by J. Biden, in the American State Department the resignation of “pro-Iranian” employees can be seen. According to the orders of the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan R. Holbrooke, and the special envoy for the Persian Gulf D. Ross, the officials responsible for Iran issue V.Nasr and R.Tekey were relieved of their posts. Those two rather well-known and authoritative analysts were adherent of the peaceful settlement of the relations with Iran and elaborated the documents of strategic importance.

The statement by J. Biden and the staff changes within the State Department, in all appearances, evidence that there is no finally elaborated “Iranian policy” between the different wings of the ruling establishment of the US. It allegedly will be formed after the presidential election in Iran, when it becomes clear whether M.Amadinejad will keep his post or not. And the ongoing talks create the base for the real dialogue if there would be any.

Nuclear problem

The activation of the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear programme is expected within the next couple of months, and this is conditioned by the new proposal of “the six” (Russia, the USA, France, Germany, Great Britain, China) to Iran. The package of proposals, according to the mass media, is already ready and in the near future it will become a matter of negotiations. Iran officially agreed to discuss it but there is no distinct information about the essence of that package of proposals offered by “the six”.

There are a good many controversies within “the six”. Russia and China continue to stand on “pro-Iranian” stance, but the biggest surprise is connected with the Germany. At the end of March foreign minister of Germany F.Stainmayer introduced in parliament (Bundestag) the bill, according to which Germany should apply sanctions against Iran in the connection with its nuclear programme. But on April 6 all the commissions of Bundestag made an adverse determination to the bill and the secretary of prime-minister A. Merkel’s Christian-Democratic Union stated that they would not allow passing such a law. The “green” also made the similar statement and regarded the sanctions as “groundless and dangerous”.

Amid the current global crisis one can say that the pressure of the western countries on Iran will weaken at some extent, as the sanctions, commodity circulation reduction and the opening of oil market by Iran on the Kish Island as a counter-measure on the sanctions and the sell of the oil on euro can deliver another strike on the global economy security.


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