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09.07.2009

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN IRAN

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

Iran_elections (medium)On June 12 regular presidential elections took place in Iran and as a result M. Ahmadinejad was elected to a second presidential term. This article touches over the pre-electoral and post-electoral processes and tries to point out the main developments, which can take place in Iran.

Electoral campaign

The electoral campaign, which preceded the June 12, distinguished itself with a number of peculiarities. Among them, perhaps, the most important was the return of the “reformers” to the domestic policy. During the previous presidential and parliamentary election the main struggle was between the various wings of conservatives and the main objective of the reformers was to preserve their participation in the state governing system.

The return of the reformers to the active policy can be mostly determined by two main factors:

  1. The conservatives nominated one common candidate – M. Ahmadinejad. His main opponents from the conservative camp (first of all we speak about the head of Mejlis of Iran Larijani and the mayor of Tehran Kalibaf who could give the incumbent president a good run for his money) did not take part in the elections. Under such circumstances the main opponent of M. Ahmadinejad should be from the reformers’ camp and that had happened).
  2. The reformers, in their turn, could present a new but at the same time rather well-known candidate. The former prime-minister of Iran Mir Hussein Musavi had stayed far from policy for the recent 20 years and was not directly connected with the political team of M. Khatami, which after obtaining support of electorate could not manage to carry out real political and economic changes in the country.

These two main factors played a key role in the reorganization of the reformers and laid good foundation for the real struggle for the presidential post.

Electoral campaign in Iran was ardent from the very first day. M.H. Musavi rallied a huge stratum of the urban youth and embarked on probably the most active and large-scale electoral campaign in the history of Iran. It included the arrangement of mass demonstrations, “house-to-house” agitation, the large-scale agitation through the electronic media, the preparation and spreading of the analysis of economic and political character, the spread of information through the Iranians living abroad, and the agitation of their relatives through them. M.H. Musavi was accompanied everywhere by his wife, which was “innovation” in Iran and received rather positive reaction in the society.

In its turn, the agitation by the president M. Ahmadinejad had also drawn a wide response. M. Ahmadinejad not only repeated during his electoral campaign all his previous offensive statements in the address of Israel but he also made hard and offensive statements regarding previous presidents of Iran. During his TV discussion with M.H. Musavi he accused him and ex-presidents of Iran A.A. Hashemi-Rafsanjani and M. Khatami of the economic fall of the country and the boom of corruption. Those accusations became the issue for the discussion in the last week of electoral campaign and exposed a bunch of discrepancies of the domestic political life in Iran. M. Khatami stated that he was not going to answer the man who took the country to the collapse and A. Hashemi-Rafsanjani stated with an open letter, which was addressed the spiritual leader A. Khamenei. A. Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s letter is also remarkable, not only because M. Ahmadinejad was called there liar and the adversary of Islamic system of values, but also by the condemnatory tone directed against A. Khamenei. The letter reads particularly as follows: “If the system does not want to oppose the tone, insults and assaults, which were told during the discussion, then how can we constitute ourselves the followers of Islamic system…? Extinguish the fire, which can be seen now, stop the fire propagation”.

The letter by Hashemi-Rafsanjani remained unreciprocated and, as he stated, he had never been even given a time on TV to “answer Ahmadinejad’s insults”. Let us mention that today Hashemi-Rafsanjani not only manages the influential Expediency Council but he has also been the head of the Assembly of Experts, which consist of 86 members, since 2006 and which manages the election of the spiritual leader, i.e. the real ruler, of the country or the resignation of the incumbent leader.

The course and the results of the elections

Already on June 12 at 11 o’clock the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Iran, which is responsible for the elections, stated that the analysis of the big flow of the voters evidences that the percentage of voting may reach 90%.

In almost all the provinces of Iran just in the morning very high percentage of voters could be observed and as a result the finalizing time of the elections was prolonged 3 times by 5 hours in general.

Great flows of the urban population rouse doubts among both international analysts and journalists and the Iranian opposition and let them suppose that the chances of M.H. Musavi to win the elections greatly increased. The main reason for such an opinion and conclusions spread in international media was that, as a rule, the society shows activity pending for the changes and expecting for the victory of the political opposition. In 18:00 the electoral campaign team of Musavi stated that, according to their estimates their candidate would win 60% of votes. This in its turn agitated the urban youth who on the night of June 13 went into the streets chanting “Allah Akbar” – the words, which unofficially were the slogan of Musavi.

But the public declaration of the electoral results showed quite contrary picture. According to them Musavi won only 34% of votes and the incumbent president – 63%.

Post-electoral developments

After the publication of preliminary electoral results M.H. Musavi stated that the elections had been rigged in favour of incumbent president. On June 13 the first big demonstration was initiated in Tehran, which went on with slogans “Death to the dictator”. In the evening the first collisions between the police and the demonstrators began, which were accompanied by burning the cars and the stores. During the collisions, according to unofficial figures, several hundreds of people were wounded. On the night of June 14 police and special services initiated the arrests of oppositionists, the leaders of political and youth organizations, which supported M.H. Musavi. All in all, 300-500 people were arrested during that night, and M.H. Musavi, according to unofficial information, was taken from his apartment to another one and put under the house arrest.

On June 14 Musavi addressed the letter to the Guardian Council, which is charged with supreme legislative functions, and demanded to declare the elections invalid. In the evening of the same day Musavi met the spiritual leader of Iran A. Khamenei who, in his turn, told him that the results of the elections would not be nullified. On the night June 15 the armoured troops of police entered Tehran, Esfahan and Meshed. Despite this in the morning of June 15 the regular demonstrations started in Tehran.

In accordance with the unofficial information, on the night of June 14 the former president of Iran M. Khatami was arrested and put under the house arrest. But on June 15 Khatami together with Musavi joined the demonstrators who gathered in the centre of Tehran.

In the evening of June 15 the first information emerged about the victims during the collisions, which was later confirmed by the police.

Possible developments

Today it is difficult to predict in what trace the post-electoral developments will go. But it will be wrong to suppose that Musavi takes the nation to the “velvet” revolution. This possibility is excluded mainly because:

  • The state system of Iran is rather well-arranged and it is ready to take rigorous measures against any attempt of revolution,
  • Musavi is not a political marginal and never aimed during his electoral campaign to ruin the state system.

The appeal of Musavi to the Guardian council, in which he demanded to declare the elections invalid, and his meeting with the spiritual leader came to prove that he preferred to solve the problems in constitutional and legislative way. It is obvious that doing this way would hardly have a positive result for Musavi but it would soften at some extent the political tension in Iran. The protests and the collisions with police, if they do not get beyond the borders and cause mass victims, are rather advantageous for Musavi and his supporters, because, as a result, new big political movement can be formed, which can take part in the next parliamentary and presidential elections from better and more organized stance.

Rather neutral stance of the US on the elections and their result show that Washington put up with the re-election of M. Ahmadinejad and, according to president Obama, it is ready to continue the policy of establishing relations and their rectification with Iran.


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