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24.02.2011

FUTURE OF THE MUSLIM POPULATION ON THE PLANET

   

Artashes Ter-Harutyunyan

In January 2011 American Pew Research Center issued “The Future of the Global Muslim Population” research. The research covers period from 1990 to 2030 and it regards to all the states and territories in the world. The main conclusion is that over those 40 years the number of the Muslims will double, rising from 1.1 billion (1990) to 2.2 billion (2030).

Though the projection only evaluates and predicts the demographic picture and further shift of the Muslim population, but, in fact, it also points out the concerns that can be seen in the Western world connected with the rise of the Muslim population.

In the spotlight of the West

From the ideological point of view, after the collapse of the USSR, number one threat for the US particularly and for the West in general is not a Chinese communism but Islamism: such formulations as “Islamist fundamentalism”, “Islamist terrorism” in their negative sense prevail in the Western information field.

Over the previous two decades more or less serious military campaigns carried out by the US and its allies were connected with the Muslim world: two Iraqi wars, military operation in Somali, and war in Afghanistan. Over that period the West was attacked by the Muslim world (on September 11, 2001 in US, the explosions on March 11, 2004 in Madrid, explosions in the underground in London on July 7 and 21, 2005 and etc). And finally, today in the military aspect one of the most active countries constituting menace to the West is considered to be Iran which plays special role in the Muslim world.

After the Cold war, if we put aside the efforts of the US and Europe to strengthen democratic processes across the territory of the former Soviet Union, the Muslim world is considered as the target for a new wave of democratization by the US and its allies.

  • In May 1998 under the pressure of the US, Suharto, the president of Indonesia – the biggest Muslim country in the world – who had ruled since 1967, resigned. After the change of the power in 2004, first direct presidential elections took place in Indonesia.
  • In November 2002, in Turkey parliamentary elections took place and moderate Islamist Justice and Progress party came to power. According to some assessments this was implemented in accordance with the American scenario, in order to stop radical Islamism.
  • After the second Iraqi war in 2003 Saddam Hussein was overthrown. He had ruled the country since 1979.
  • In August 2008 General Pervez Musharaf who had been in office since 1999 resigned.
  • In June 2009 after the elections in Iran disorders took place in the organization of which Iranian authorities blamed special services of the US and its allies.
  • In January 2011 as a result of the referendum which took place in South Sudan, under the direct support of the US, Christian south separated from Muslim north (which has been governed by Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir since 1989).
  • In January 2011 in consequence of the disturbances Zine el Abidine Ben Ali who had been ruling since 1987 quitted.
  • In January-February 2011 in consequence of disorders Hosni Mubarak who had been ruling Egypt since 1981 resigned. Both in case with Egypt and Tunisia the US and European countries do not even conceal that they promoted disturbances.

Some conclusions and data from the report

The main question which the authors of the report tried to answer is how fast the Muslim population of the planet grows and, correspondingly, what demographic proportion the West will face in 2030, including the one “at home”.

According to the report if in 1990 the Muslim population was 1.1 billion then in 2010 their number reached 1.6 billion or 23.4% of the total population on the earth, and in 20 years their number will be 2.2 billion, i.e. 26.4% of the estimated population. Thus, in 2030 at least one of four people on the earth will be a Muslim.

According to the report, if in 2010 72 countries have a million and more Muslim inhabitants, in 2030 the number of such countries will be 79. At the same time if in 2010 there were 49 countries were Muslims constituted majority, in 2030 the number of such countries will increase by one (Nigeria), thus becoming 50.

According to the projection, over the period of 2010-2030 the ratio between Sunnites and Shiites will preserve. Among the main reason of the growth of the Muslim population the authors mention birth rates and life interval.

Table 1 brings share of Muslim population in a number of countries in accordance with the aforementioned projection.

The response of the West

In the last August the book of the member of the Board of the Directors of Bundesbank, the former member of Berlin’s senate Thilo Saranzzin "Germany Abolishes Itself” was published. In this book Sarazzin speaks about the danger which comes forward as result of the low birth rates among the Germans and constantly increasing number the Muslims immigrants. According to Sarazzin, even the second or the third generation of the Muslims neither can nor want to integrate in German society, thus setting stage for the “Muslim threat” in Germany.

In about a month and a half after T. Sarazzin’s book was published, i.e. on October 16, 2010 the Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel stated during her meeting with the youth wing of the Christian Democratic Party that the policy of multiculturalism, which had been carried out in the country for decades, failed and that the flow of the immigrants restricts the progress of German economy.

While speaking about the failure of the policy of multiculturalism Merkel, however, did not mention what she offered as an alternative. This gap, however, was filled by the British prime-minster David Cameron. On February 6, at the international conference on security issues in Munich he stated that the policy of multiculturalism did not prove its value and that it was a time for the muscle liberalism.


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