• am
  • ru
  • en
print version
14.06.2012

ISLAMIC FACTOR IN THE FOREIGN POLICY OF TURKEY

   

Artashes Ter-Harutyunyan



Recently the intelligence service of Israel – Mossad – presented to the cabinet of Benjamin Netanyahu a report on the situation and possible developments in Syria. According to the Israeli sources one of the main conclusions was that due to the active measures taken by the western governments alongside with continuous weakening of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the strengthening and expansion of Islamist network in Syria was taking place and that in case of such developments the Islamist would the most probable become the substitute of the al-Assads.

However, the Mossad analysts advice to pay attention also to the fact that the main supporter and sponsor of the Islamist network in Syria is Turkey’s intelligence service – MIT – which is followed by intelligence services of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE. The Israeli intelligence concludes that the decision of the political leadership of Turkey to render assistance in strengthening of Islamist network in Syria reflects an important shift in the considerations of Ankara strategists. After the events in Egypt, when alongside with overthrowing of the Mubarak regime Turkey set active connection with the local Islamist movements first of all by rendering them financial assistance, Turkey’s actions in Syria come to prove that the Islamist factor becomes one of the main tools of the foreign policy of Turkey. At the same time, in Mossad they draw to the conclusion that in the foreseeable future the influence of this factor in the foreign policy of Turkey will only rise, taking into consideration claims of Ankara on becoming a leader of the Muslim world.

Rebranding of the Islamist Factor on the International Scene

It is characteristic that over the recent period revaluation of Islamist factor in the international policy has been proceeding. If over the last several decades it had been marginal and then it had been associated with world terrorism, today the western information and diplomatic efforts are directed to the rebranding of the Islamist factor.

This is very important alternation and if we take into consideration the volume of those changes (e.g. the number of the states where despite the elites, which have been ruling for decades, the Islamists manage to pave their way; the financial, information and human resources they have at their disposal), probably it would be possible to state that this factor is acquiring geopolitical significance.

Probably, the main result of the “Arab spring” should be considered in this context. We can see that in consequence of Arab revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen (it is expected in Syria and even in the countries where it was repressed, such as Algeria, Morocco, Jordan) first of all Islamists get access to power.

Turkey’s New Approach to the World

The decision of Turkey to position itself by means of a new strategy, based on an Islamist factor, is not a novelty. But it is interesting with what new proposals Turkey will come forward in the nearest future. How far is Ankara ready to go in implementing their Islamic agenda as it is clear that the current transformation of Turkish strategy is still on the initial stage, so one can expect new initiatives of Ankara in both domestic and foreign policies?

There are three factors which caused Ankara’s shift to the new strategy.

First one is that after the end of the Cold War the American-Turkish relations underwent considerable changes. Even some contradictions around some issues on regional and international policy aroused and they are still vibrant. At the same time Turkey failed the process of Euro integration. The process of integration into the EU which has been lasting for several decades, most probably, can be considered to be over and even Turkish leaders do not avoid speaking about it.

As a second factor the financial and economic growth of Turkey which has been observed for recent 20 years is mentioned. The continuing economic and financial growth of Turkey not only turned Turkey into a country which has a weight in the world economy, but also created serious resources for Ankara to come forward with regional and even global political initiatives.

The third factor is the arising of the conditions in the neighboring regions which promote expansionist moods. Collapse of the Soviet Union promoted such a possibility in the Balkans, Black Sea region, Caucasus, Caspian region and Central Asia. Overthrowing of Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi regimes, increasing American pressure on Iran and financial and economic crisis in Greece create such an opportunity in the Middle East, eastern part of the Mediterranean and North Africa.

Here we speak about the regions which not so long ago were part of the Ottoman Empire or were under the Ottoman influence. And the Islamist factor here plays crucial role because from the point of view of ideology, as a matter of fact, it is a factor which can substantiate Turkish policy in those regions.

Situational Review

In order to show that Turkey is the number one and most influential protector of the Muslim nations in the aforementioned regions, it has recently initiated a number of image-building measures. Those measures are well-known – from protecting the rights of Muslim Uyghurs in the west of China and starting a public argument with official Beijing(July 2009), to establishment of special flotilla for delivering humanitarian aid to the Palestinians and deliberate deterioration of the relations with Israel after the incident connected with that flotilla (May 2010).

But over the recent years Turkey has been applying more extra force to expand its influence in the Islamic networks and organizations, particularly in the neighboring regions. This is not a part of public policy and media do not speak much about these Turkish initiatives, but Israeli and American security experts, presenting some episodes, position it as an important indicator proving new Turkish foreign policy.

During the panel session of Turkey’s intelligence service, where president Gul and prime-minister Erdogan were present, the director of the service Hakan Fidan, while speaking about the programmes of the MIT, stated that “in the next few years Turkish National Intelligence Service will become world class intelligence organization”. Western experts, making reference to Fidan’s words, conclude that Ankara tends to shift its presence in the regions it is interested in and especially in the neighboring countries to a new more substantial level. It is mentioned that changes in the way the Turkish intelligence works are observed. If previously it was directed to the operational intelligence collection and reaction to it, today preferences are acquiring mid-term and long-term character – thus their aim is to create networks of influence. The American and Israeli experts connect those changes with the shift in the foreign policy of Ankara.

At the end of April Iraq, which is third trade partner of Turkey after Germany and Russia (last year bilateral turnover was about $12 billion), stated that it halted oil transit through the territory of Turkey (Iraq transits through Turkey up to 500 thousand barrels per day). The reason is the situation round the Sunnite vice-president Tariq al-Hashemi. Since last December Hashemi has been under the accusation of organizing terrorist actions in Iraq. He repels accusations stating that the aim of the Shiite elite of Iraq is to weaken Sunnites. In this story the fact that Iraq’s Shiite prime-minster Nuri al-Maliki’s office accused Turkish special services of organizing al-Hashemi’s escape first to Qatar and then to Turkey catches the eye. Things came to such a pitch that the prime-minister al-Maliki called Turkey “enemy state” which constantly interfered into the domestic affairs of Iraq. In response, the prime-minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that they could not leave Iraqi Sunnites without support.

Turkish president Abdullah Gul was the first among the leaders of the countries who visited Cairo after overthrowing of Mubarak’s regime in March 2011. And Erdogan was the first among the leaders of the Muslim countries who pled Mubarak to leave. In consequence of the parliamentary elections in Egypt held at the end of last year and in January-February 2012 more than a half of the seats in Lower and Upper chambers were taken by the Islamists. Their opponents stated that financial and information support received from Saudi Arabia and Turkey played a big role in their victory. The statement made by Tariq Ramadan – one of the influential Islamists in Egypt and grandson of the founder of “Muslim Brothers” organization – that Turkey could make a “road map” for Egypt on how to combine Islam, democracy and strong economy is remarkable. Ramadan made this statement after the elections and today when many in Egypt and on the West consider which model can work in the Arab countries under the new conditions, in the first instance remember the example of Turkey.


Return
Another materials of author