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10.11.2011

GEOPOLITICAL MEANING OF THE US ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE

   

Artashes Ter-Harutyunyan

On September 14, 2011 in Ankara the deputy-Minister of Foreign Affairs Feridun Sinirlioglu and the US Ambassador to Turkey Francis Richardson signed a memorandum on deployment of radar in Turkey. According to the statement the radar will be deployed in the south-east of Turkey – Kurecik district of Malatya province, and the works on deployment will be finished by the end of this year.

The deployment of the American ABM defence radar in Turkey is spotlighted in two aspects.

The first is that Washington’s decision on the deployment of the elements of anti-missile defence system in Turkey and Europe1 is an important indicator from the point of view of US policy of building new relations with Russia. It is known that at the beginning of his presidency Barak Obama initiated the “reload” of the relations with Moscow2, and one of the main elements of this reload should have been acquiring agreements on further formation of the American ABM defence. In this aspect the refusal of Czech Rep. to become a part of the US ABM defence3 was considered by the observers as the evidence of developing mutual understanding between Washington and Moscow.

And now, if Washington by the deployment of the ABM defence elements considers that the reload stage is passed, it must have influence on the geopolitical processes. It means that some news is expected4.

Secondly, it is remarkable that the radar covering the Middle East was deployed in Turkey. Of course convenient geographic location of Turkey played its role, as the radar deployed in Kurecik can survey both Iranian and south Russian directions. But besides technical there is also political aspect. The point is that the US decided to connect one of the crucial issues of its national security with Turkey. Despite widely discussed American-Turkish contradictions, Washington has chosen Ankara. This is a serious indicator of the state of the political relations and it is not a mere chance that today Ankara fills confident in the region.

Situational observation

Since the Cold war some elements of the American ABM defence are deployed in a number of countries of Western Europe – Great Britain, Germany, Greenland and etc. Washington’s plans to deploy elements of ABM defence system in Eastern Europe cause Russia’s serious concern because those elements allow acquiring and intercepting of intercontinental missiles launched from the territory of Russia in comparatively initial phase of trajectory. Though the US and its allies state that the enlargement of the ABM defence in Europe is directed to the protection from the Iranian missiles which are becoming long-range5 in the course of time, but the same system may be a deterrent in Russian direction either.

Though it is difficult to assess the efficiency of the American ABM defence in Europe and correspondingly the restrictions it may impose on Russia in military and technical aspect as there is no information about the abilities of the parties, but we can describe the geopolitical consequences of the US ABM defence enlargement in Europe, which, however, may be of greater importance for Washington than the military and technical domination over Russia.

As the NATO Secretary General Andres Fogh Rasmussen stated on October 5, 2011, the US-NATO ABM defence system will be ready in 2018 and will be on standby alert. Rasmussen’s statement first of all regarded the elements of the ABM defence in Eastern Europe.

It is known that on August 20, 2008 the US and Poland signed agreement, according to which it is planed to deploy SM-3 missiles, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles, in Polish Slupsk near the Baltic Sea by 2018.

On September 13 the US State Secretary Hillary Clinton and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Romania Theodor Bakonski signed an agreement on deployment of radar and SM-3 missiles on the territory of Romania by 2015.

On October 5, 2011 in Brussels the prime-minister of Spain Jose Luis Sapatero stated that his country joins the US ABM defence system and allows deploying the US Navy ships with SM-3 missiles on Spanish navy bases.

On February 12, 2010 the prime-minister of Bulgaria Boyko Borisov stated that the elements of the American ABM defence may be deployed in his country if the European Union agrees. However, in a week the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria Nicolay Mladenov stated that at that moment there were no talks on that issue. Over the passed months news concerning the deployment of the elements of the American ABM defence in Bulgaria appeared in mass media, but they were not officially confirmed. There were no official statements concerning the deployment of ABM defence elements in Hungary either, though from time to time information about that country appears in mass media.

If we try to summarize it becomes obvious that a raw of states is formed which consists of the countries constituting a part of the US ABM defence and which goes from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and Mediterranean – Poland-(Hungary)-Romania-(Bulgaria)-Turkey. Over the recent period many American and European security experts speak a lot about that row as a kind of geopolitical project, implemented by the US, which aim is to consolidate the American military, and correspondingly political influence in Eastern Europe, which is acquiring significance in the light of deepening Russian-German relations.

The following is also presented as an element of the aforementioned programme:

On May 12 the Visegrad Group6, which includes Poland, Hungary, Czech Rep. and Slovakia, stated that it would create special military commitment under the Polish command by 2016, which would not be subordinate to NATO7.

By the way, on June 13, 2011 the US and Poland signed an agreement, according to which the US Air Force base will be established in Poland in 2013. Let us also add that last year it became known that Patriot surface-to-air missile systems were deployed nearby Polish city of Morog, just 80 kilometres away from the border of Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast.

The American expert circles are convinced that that the aforementioned military and political processes in Eastern Europe are sponsored by Washington and both deployment of the American ABM defence elements in the countries of Eastern Europe and the development round the Scandinavian and Visegrad military commitments, as we have already mentioned, are aimed to reinforce American military and political presence in the eastern part of Europe.

In fact, they pursue the same goal in the Turkish direction either. The deployment of the US ABM defence in Turkey8 attaches political weight to the country in the region. On the other hand it demonstrates the interest of Washington in maintaining the military and political ties with Ankara on a definite strategic level.

1 In September-October 2001, at once three countries – Romania, Turkey and Spain, announced that they are joining the US ABM defence system.

2 On February 7, 2009, just in two weeks after B. Obama’s accession to office, the US vice-president Joe Bayden stated about the necessity to reset the relations with Moscow. In a month on March 6, the US State Secretary Hilary Clinton passed to Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov a box on which it was written “reset” and “перезагрузка”

3 On June 15 the Minister of Defence of Czech Rep. Alexander Vondran stated, that his country refused to be a part of the US ABM defence system. Let us remind you that since 2006 Czech Rep. together with Poland had been mentioned as Eastern European countries where the American X-Band Radar by Raytheon Company should be deployed.

4 May be this is one of the aspects in which the decision of Moscow on returning of Putin to big politics should be considered.

5 Since November 2007 Iran has adopted for service “Ashoura” missiles which range is about 2500km.

6 The Group was established in 1991 in Visegrad, Hungary.

7 All four countries are NATO members.

8 The deployment of the US ABM defence elements in Turkey is nothing new. Back in 1972 radar was deployed at Pirinclik Air Base, near Dyarbakir, which covered the Caucasus part of the USSR, northern Kazakhstan, as well as the Middle East. The range of the radar was 4300 km. In 1997 the US passed the radar to Turkey.


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