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25.01.2011

SOUTHERN SUDAN: NEW STATE IN THE WORLD

   

Artashes Ter-Harutyunyan

Though the results of the referendum hold on January 9-15 in Southern Sudan will be published on February 6-14, today one can already speak about those results. The fact that the referendum was hold is much more important, because there is no doubt that the majority of the participants of the referendum voted for the independence of Southern Sudan. In particular, according to the results of the exit-polls held by a number of American and European missions, 90-95% of the voters said “yes” to the independence of Southern Sudan.

Southern Sudan: general information

Though the borders between Southern Sudan and Northern Sudan (or just Sudan) are not clarified yet (there are some disputable districts) but several international organizations take as a basis the following data: territory covers the area of about 620 thousand km2 (approximately the size of France, about 24% of the territory of Sudan), population – 8 million 260 thousand people (about 19% of population of Sudan).

Southern Sudan has already had its flag, anthem, but it has still no official name. At current moment there are several variants: Southern Sudan, New Sudan, the Republic of Kush, Nile Republic. The capital city is Juba (in 2008 population was about 250 thousand people).

Southern Sudan is populated by more than 200 ethnic groups, the official language is English, an informal Arabic is also widespread; among the local languages the most widespread is Dinka which is used, according to different estimations, by 2-3 million people.

According to the latest international data, about 70% of population in Sudan is Sunnite Muslims, 25% are adherents of local creeds, and 5% are Christians. Most of the Christians live in Southern Sudan and this is the reason why the struggle between Northern and Southern Sudan is often presented, especially by the American mass media, as a struggle between the Muslims and Christians. There is no distinct information about the number of Christians in Southern Sudan. But it is known that the number of Christians in Southern Sudan is constantly growing due to the activity of Christian missionaries. Most of the Christians in Southern Sudan are either Catholics or Anglicans.

Oil issue

According to different estimates about 80% of oil fields of Sudan are situated in Southern Sudan.

Oil production is approximately new phenomenon in Sudan. Khartoum has begun exporting oil since 1999. According to the data of the US Department of Energy for 2010 Sudan is the fifth in Africa as for the oil reserves – about 5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves1. In 2009 it was also stated about finding gas reserves in Sudan, but according to the experts’ estimates the restricted gas volume does not allow speaking about industrial production of the natural gas.

According to the observations presented by the International Monetary Fund in 2009 the oil export revenue constitutes 90% of the export revenue in general. In the same year the share of the oil revenue of Khartoum in the public revenue was 65% and the share of Juba was 98%.

According to the latest data presented by the US Department of Energy, in 2009 Sudan produced about 485 thousand barrels of oil per day and consumed 90 thousand barrels; the difference – 395 thousand barrels of oil, was exported. As compared with 1998 when Sudan even imported oil to cover its consumption, the production of oil in Sudan has grown 10 times.

In accordance with the latest data (for 2009), the main importers of the Sudanese oil are China – 250 thousand barrels per day or 65% of all the exported Sudanese oil2; on the second place is Indonesia – 60 thousand barrels per day and the third is Japan – 50 thousand barrels per day.

China also occupies first place in the management of the Sudanese oil fields. In Sudan oil fields are divided into the blocks which in 2009 altogether produced 180 barrels of oil per day and which are managed by Grater Nile Petroleum Operating Company and 40% of the shares of that consortium (the biggest share) belongs to China National Petroleum Corporation. The only Sudanese oil pipeline – Greater Nile Oil Pipeline which connects Sudanese oil fields with the city of Port Sudan on the Red Sea cost, also belongs to Grater Nile Petroleum Operating Company.

The 3rd and 7th blocks which in 2009 jointly produced 240 thousand barrels of oil are under the management of Petrodar consortium 41% of shares of which (the biggest share either) also belongs to the same Chinese company, and 3% belong to other Chinese company – Sinopec.

Let us mention that the interest China showed and continues to show in Sudanese Khartoum central authorities on the international level when they were under pressure of the US and the western European countries in regard to both issues of Southern Sudan and Darfur was first of all conditioned by the oil factor3.

North – South confrontation

While being under the rule of Great Britain in 1899-1956 Northern and Southern Sudan were administered as separate administrative units, and in the last period of the British colonial rule there were plans to annex Southern Sudan to Uganda.

Since the independence of Sudan in 1956 there had been two wars between the southern and northern parts of Sudan. Those wars are known as the First and Second Civil Wars in Sudan (in 1955-1972 and in 1983 – 2005). The aim of the Muslim North was to strengthen its power in the semi-independent South, broaden its territories and to establish full control over the southern oil fields. On the other hand the South aspired to widen the level of its independence and become independent if possible.

This brought to numerous victims among the civilians – half a million during the First Civil War and 2 million victims as a result of the Second Civil War.

In 2005, mainly due to the pressure and mediation of the US, the parties concluded an agreement according to which a referendum should be held in Southern Sudan in January 2011 in order to decide the future of the country.

According to the agreement concluded in 2005, in case of the positive results of the referendum Southern Sudan can state its independence on July 6 when the term of the six-month agreement is expired.

Conclusions

The attention should be paid on the circumstance that this is the second case in the recent three years – after Kosovo, when in a consequence of a direct measures taken by the US a country becomes independent. We are the witnesses of the process which tends to serve ideological and geopolitical interests of the US. If this is true, Kosovo and Southern Sudan in the time to come may be followed by other countries as well – Western Sahara, Darfur and etc. All the aforementioned cannot but influence international relations.

1The first is Libya – 44.4 billion barrels, then comes Nigeria – 37.2 billion barrels, the third is Algeria – 12.2 billion barrels, the forth is Angola – 9.5 billion and finally Sudan – 5 billion barrels. According to the same source, back in 2006 the proven oil reserves of Sudan were estimated at 563 million barrels, i.e. about 9 times lower. According to the Sudanese government the proven oil reserves of the country are 6 billion barrels.

2The oil imported from Sudan constituted 6% of all the oil volume imported into China.

3The territory of Darfur which is situated in the western part of Sudan cover the area of more than 463 thousand km2, the population is about 6 million people (2004). The confrontation in Darfur was initiated in February 2003, when the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Movement for Liberty of Sudan began a struggle against the central authorities (Khartoum) blaming the later in ethnic cleansings and genocide perpetrated against non-Muslim population (including Christians) in Darfur. At the same time, JEM aims to turn Darfur into autonomy. Under the pressure of the international community in February 2010 the parties agreed armistice and negotiations were initiated for the final reconciliation. However, the negotiations were broken off – the parties blamed each other in violating the terms of the armistice.

According to different estimations the number of the victims of the military actions in Darfur varies from 20 thousand to several hundreds of thousands.


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