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02.02.2006

On the North Caucasus gas-pipeline explosions

   

Gagik Ter-Harutyunyan 

As it is known in the early hours on January 22 explosions in Russia’s North Ossetia damaged the North Caucasus-South Caucasus main gas-pipeline and Mozdok-Tbilisi auxiliary gas-pipeline and Karachay-Cherkessia electricity transmission line. The operations were well planned, was chosen the most appropriate time for it to be realized, which means that it had been well concocted by the insurgents.

It’s worth mentioning that soon after the explosions the US State Department appeared with an announcement that the American part doesn’t know the reasons of the explosions and those who are in blame for it. However the US “calls for Russian authorities to investigate the case”. It is also mentioned that the US approved the fact that at that period of energetic crisis the neighbors of Georgia and Armenia lent a helping hand, especially stressing up the US diplomatic role in it. It’s noteworthy that in his announcements the State Department representative expected the gas-pipeline to be repaired in 2-3 days and “Armenian and Georgian peoples may cherish hopes for gas supply resumption to their countries”.

The State Department’s announcement and the concern shown to Armenian and Georgian people is unprecedented, all these may be considered in the light of possible politicization of the processes concerning to energy carriers. Russia was immediately made responsible for explosions. Tbilisi and Kiev were especially active and Poland offered to found European energetic security system, so called “Energetic NATO” “to confront Russia’s gas attacks”. A few other European countries announced on turning to other sources of gas supply (especially from Africa).

On this occasion let’s point out that the Armenian mass media and most of the people are inclined to think that blasts have been organized by Russia. Let’s also notice that propagandistic activities on Russian gas tariffs in Armenia are spread in a little simple way. They can hardly be effective taking into account the new, tougher strategy pursued by Kremlin to CIS countries. In the present state of affairs it must also be taken account the fact that Russia has a certain role in balancing the US incited processes on Nagorno Karabakh problem, and Armenia doesn’t have that strategic importance for the US as Azerbaijan does. As a result of such an anti-Russian campaign Armenian political elite may find itself in a situation when Russia is not a strategic partner any more and the US hasn’t become the one as well.

As for the explosions of gas pipelines, it must be stated that in the present context of gas issues general intensifications such procedures can not be advantageous for Moscow, and the version of “Russian order” is practically excluded. The gas supply cut-offs only discredit Russia and work in the favor of a hypothesis that it can’t be a reliable partner. Yet, on the basis of the new strategy adopted by Kremlin, it is stressed up the factor of energy carriers and it often has to turn a blind eye on the losses incurred (as it often happens while exporting gas through Ukraine to Europe), just to preserve the image of a reliable supplier.

In its turn it is logical that the main rivals for Russia in energy field against its geoeconomic strategy were to try to tarnish its reputation and “spoil the image”. In this context there is no doubt that the US and its allies drive more benefits from the explosions. Such terracts make Georgia more inclined to Turkish and Azerbaijani energy carriers’ market, which completely coincides with the US strategy (even energy cooperation with Iran is considered to be more beneficial in this context).

The same attitude prevails on the issue of gas supply to Europe, as Russian-Europe economic cooperation and the processes of political integration are today concentrated on energy supply. It can’t be beneficial for the US as it makes the US-Europe ties weaker. As regards this, let’s notice that the energetic processes have become one of the urgent problems of global policy. Many analytic centers have lately been founded in the US, Europe and Russia (in particular a special Energy Institute has recently been founded adjacent to Russian Academy Ministry of Foreign Affairs) which, by the order of the government or large-scale organizations, try to analyze and predict economic and political developments on energy issues.

However, apart from geopolitical logic, the other facts have also come to prove about the Anglo-Saxon “trace” of the explosions in North Caucasus. It is known that today the British have the most serious opportunity to undertake special operative activities in Caucasus. They infiltrated into the region at Tsarist and Soviet period and made their stand firmer at the period of “perestroyka”. It is also noteworthy that up till now there hasn’t been discovered any de facto “American traces” in North Caucasus. Yet the British have been repeatedly mentioned, that’s to say Great Britain bears the “responsibility” for this region the special services of which also defend the interests of the US in functional sphere. It is also known that often special enterprises of political and other character based on British ideas are funded by the Americans.

It is not a secret that British “Hallo-Trust” “mine-clearing” NGO has undertaken the activity of teaching Chechen insurgents mining technique. It is not a secret that “Hallo-Trust” has been founded by British MI6 (let’s remember that there were branches of “Hallo-Trust” in Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia). According to experts many terracts organized in North Caucasus have the same “handwriting” of methods as characteristic to British professionals. There is also distinct information that besides teaching their “pupils” mining technique, “Hallo-Trust” collaborators also recruit them. All these let us suppose that the explosions in North Caucasus were realized by the insurgents under British control.

According to the publications appeared in mass media, we make certain that Russian intelligence services are well aware of the activates undertaken by “Hallo-Trust” and British intelligence services in Caucasus, and especially the ones the explosions of gas-pipelines were ordered by. The next day after the blasts, on Russian TV was release a special program where ware represented documentary video materials about spy net activates of the collaborators of Great Britain’s embassy in Russia. According to the traditions accepted in intelligence services and especially KGB, by such a TV program and successful actions FSB perhaps “pointed out” the authors of the explosions and “balanced” their activities striking it back. It is also noteworthy that the disclosed British “diplomats” rendered consulting and financial assistance to several leaders of Moscow NGOs recruited by them in the past. “The Eurasia Foundation” and “The Helsinki Group”, which have their branches in Armenia as well, are among these NGOs. Let’s also point out that the discredited “The Eurasia Foundation” has made a decision to liquidate its Moscow office (at the same time founding another organization working in the same field), and FSB press secretary announced that most of the Russian NGOs are directed and funded by the Western structures.

There is an impression that the developments on energy carriers in our region have a tactical character and don’t deserve special attention. However today’s realities are inherent to Cold War period toughness, which, from now on, will characterize the US-Russia relations in Caucasus and other places.


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