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23.02.2009

ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE USA AND CHINA

   

Gagik Ter-Harutyunyan

us-china (medium)The relations between the US and China are one of the main problems in multi-polar world. Their orientation and content, obviously, will essentially influence global policy, military and political and economic developments. Meanwhile, there are quite contrary analytical approaches connected with the character of those relations.

Confrontation of civilizations. Some analysts (mainly economists) tend to the opinion that the US and the PRC coalesced to such an extent in the sphere of economy and finances (today 10% of the import in the US belongs to China) that in the future they will integrate economically and make a whole. The celebrated American economist Niall Ferguson appropriately called it “Chimerica” (from China-America word combination). The analysts with the geopolitical way of thinking are of the other opinion. They are convinced that the competition between the US and the PRC will turn into utmost rivalry even with military clash.

Let us mention in this connection that in globalizing world coincidence of the economic interests of the big geopolitical actors, the community of those interests to one extent or another, are almost inevitable. This is particularly evidenced by the joint efforts of the leading countries to recover from the current crisis. At the same time without down-grading the material part there are also even more important and foreground factors.

In western deep investigations of China the singularity of value system and ideological flexibility are especially underlined and this, in the accordance with the analysts, is the main recipe for their national security. There is an impression that the competition between the US and the PRC in spiritual (ideological) and intellectual spheres is most important. It is remarkable that the analysts of some research centers are more concerned about the fact that in 2040 the exponents of the scientific and technological development of the US and China will level, than with the expansion of its economy. In accordance with the approaches of Samuel Huntington, who has passed away recently, the contradictions between these two superstates are the classical example of civilization confrontation. But it is known that the ideological competition is one of the most important preconditions for military clash.

Military clash scenarios. In the aforementioned context it is interesting to refer to one of the scenarios named “China acts”, which is included in the research projects “Asia – 2025” and “Joint vision – 2020” worked out by “RAND Corporation” and other American “think tanks”. In accordance with this scenario in 2015 in South Korea and Japan the growth of nationalism can be seen, the process of the reunification of two Koreas will start. Following a protest of the population and some terrorist acts against Americans, the US is forced to dismantle its military bases from this country. China, in its turn, activates its naval forces and this causes a local military clash between Chinese and American warships. The US, weakened from political point of view, retreats. In the circumstances concerned India and Japan rethink their political conceptions. They “move away” from the United States even more and from strategic point of view they orientate in the direction of China. Thus China and its “junior” partners, India and Japan, set their political and military supremacy over huge South Asian and Asian and Pacific regions, forcing out the US from there. It is characteristic that the same trends were expressed by the results of the scenario game, which was held in Singapore (with the participation of the Japanese analysts). According to those results in case of the retreat of the US the so called “Asian NATO” will form, and China, Japan and Unified Korea will constitute its backbone.

From the point of view of possible military actions the situation round Taiwan is also topical (may be even foremost). In this context the computer war game “Khan Quang” which was arranged by the military department of that country (“the Republic of China”) in 2006, during which the attack of the PRC against the island was modeled. According to that war game the armed forces of China managed to disrupt the communications support of the Taiwanese army and to land troops unexpectedly in the North of the island. On the forth day of military actions the attacking side swiftly occupies the capital Taipei and declares its victory.

We can notice the following on account of this scenario: there is, of course, no doubt that the PRC can occupy Taiwan in several days. But this has not happened till now mainly because of the American guarantees given to the island and, which is most important, because of the US warships patrolling the Taiwan gulf. Meanwhile during their war game Taiwanese militaries made up their minds to the thought that the US is not ready to make any serious military steps for Taiwan and psychologically it has already ceded the island to the continental China.

“Cold war”. The work-out of military and political scenarios and war games necessarily supposes the most radical variants. This allows to introduce the whole spectrum of all the possible developments and to form integral idea of the problem under study. Of course, one cannot exclude the military developments in the relations between China and the US. But the direct military clash between two superstates in the nuclear age can in fact bring to the “end of the history”. Both parties are aware of that factor and that is why the possibility of “hot” war between them is almost excluded.

The cold war is another matter. Here all means are used but for nuclear ones. It is remarkable that back in 1992 Deng Xiaoping made a public statement that the “cold war” between China and the US had already broken out. We think that “wise Deng” not so much stated the reality because at that time China was far from being one of the power poles in the world as emphasized the fact that after the fall of “the Soviets”, his country would become the main competitor of the US.

Today China has really obtained the status of the second center of power and adhere its traditional strategy combining available resources, political realities and objectives, trying to achieve all these with the help of “soft power”. E.g. the issue of Taiwan is not far from being solved by political settlement. The oppositional candidate Ma Ying-jeou got the landslide victory on the presidential elections in 2008. He is an adherent of the peaceful integration of two countries, ancestry of continental China and in accordance with the special services experts he is “a man of Beijing”. It is important that during that presidential election some elements of “colour revolution” could be observed. That means that China has acquired that western “technology” and applies it against its rivals.


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