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12.07.2007

On developments around Nagorni Karabakh Republic

   

Gagik Ter-Harutyunyan

It’s a long time since the Co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group have been successively visiting the region and various and sometimes contradicting announcements have been made on the developments around Nagorni Karabakh. It has become a tradition to make such announcements as in the autumn or spring of the coming year certain changed will be made in settling NKR conflict. Mass media couldn’t but response those announcements in their turn sometimes even misrepresenting or interpreting the information in their own way. That information chain is continued by the perceptions shaped in the society.

At that, according to geopolitical logic, the Karabakh conflict may be considered to be settled. There was a district of Nagorni Karabakh, which has turned into the NK Republic as a result of the well known events, and that reality is perhaps the best solution of the problems from the geopolitical standpoint.

In this connection, let’s mention that quite contradicting principles on the nation’s self-determination and regional integrity speculated in the literature on political science is considered to be a little bit outdated and not constructive. Why?

The processes following the collapse of the Soviet regime has created a new geopolitical situation. On the USSR territory and Yugoslavia were formed independent republics, the Czech Republic was divided, the issue of Caucasus is being actively discussed today etc. the fact is that as a result of weighty geopolitical changes new Post Cold War realities have been shaped, the most important part of which has been adopted and accepted by the international community and the other part is still to be shaped. Today the international expert community adheres to the standpoint that to solve the current problems realistic principles should be worked out. For example, it is mentioned the factor of civilization, according to which one should stress up the importance of this or that nation’s civilization belonging and give preference to nations reunion process. That’s to say, perhaps it is time to quit using the former political terminology and be led by categories coinciding with the reality.

There is a key issue in the context of these all – the issue of liberated territories. It is obvious that those territories are real and military guarantee of regional security is not only for the NKR but also for the RA. It goes without saying that theoretically it will be possible to return them only in case any real guarantees of security are given. Up till now the official Baku, at least in information field, stresses up the power solution of the problem: one can often hear that as a result of the oil sold the military budget will reach up to $1 billion, which will make it possible to apply military operations in NKR issue.

It goes without saying that the oil based economic growth of Azerbaijan may not be disregarded. According to rating showings released by foreign and international authoritative organizations relating to this or that country’s being stable and economic freedom, the RA especially surpassed Azerbaijan. This reality is also condition by the Armenian army’s high rating. In this sense on can’t exclude that Azerbaijan’s military aspirations may have sad after-effects for that very country. Perhaps, Azerbaijan also realizes this reality. However, in any case, one shouldn’t forget the main principle, according to which “if you want peace, be ready to war.”

At the same time, the possibility of military operation to be restored is conditioned by the following reasons. Today it is almost excluded that any country is able to solve the problem of war and peace independently. Azerbaijan is a territory where are concentrated the geo-economic interests of outstanding oil companies or, more exactly, of Britain, the US and a number of European countries: these countries should aspire to minimize the possibility of military operations of any format.

Turkey is quite another issue: from the very beginning of Karabakh conflict it did not care to hide its assistance rendered to Azerbaijan. However, today that former Empire has many internal and external problems and, as for the issue of the Armenian Genocide, is already under the pressure of the international community. So, it is not advantageous for Turkey to stir Azerbaijan into war. In this context one should also point out Russia’s important regional role and, in particular, the announcement of the Secretary of Collective Security Treaty Organization that if Armenia’s borders are overstepped than appropriate measures would be taken.

Summarizing the above mentioned brief observation one can come to the following conclusion:

  • The logic of negotiation processes around the NKR will be reasoned by the created geopolitical realities. The mission of the OSCE Minsk Group is to guarantee that reality in the terminology of international right.
  • The adherents to solve the NKR conflict through non-negotiation way and by force run a serious risk and contradict the interests of the power states which have regional geo-economic issues.
  • In the context of all these, the perception of “NKR problem solution” has acquired a conditional character. As a matter of fact it is not that urgent for the NKR, which joined with the RA, to become a subject of international right. In this sense, NKR’s position is quite favorable and the time, in that context, works in our favor.

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