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28.12.2009

IRAN: YEAR IN REVIEW

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

2009 can be regarded as one of the most important years in the post-revolution history of Iran. The crisis in domestic policy, the procrastination of the possible settlement of the Iranian-American relations in the sphere of foreign policy, the maintenance and consolidation of their stance in regard to nuclear issue which can latter influence seriously the situation in Iran and its status. In this article we speak about the developments in 2009 which, in our opinion, were important for Iran.

Political crisis and the formation of the new opposition

The presidential elections marked the beginning of the gravest political crisis in Iran since the Islamic revolution. The clashes between opposition and security forces, casualties, the subsequent arrests, finally brought to the formation of the new political field around M.H.Mousavi which will pass the important stage of institutionalism in the coming years. The continuing clashes between the demonstrators and police can be of permanent character, because they serve from political and moral points of view the movement headed by A.A.Hashemi-Rafsanjani, M.H.Mousavi, M.Khatami and other hundreds of former and present high-ranked figures which long-term objective is the removal of the conservatives from the power.

As the main internal impulse the possible election of the new spiritual leader of Iran can be mentioned and as a foreign one – the possible strike on Iran by the US and Israel. Let us mention that the possibility of the second variant is rising gradually today, taking into consideration the fact that Tehran wrecks the talks with IAEA and the “six”. If one or two years ago it was difficult to say that the US or Israeli air strike could cause the instability in domestic political situation or revolution then, after the recent presidential elections when the strong opposition was formed both in political and spiritual circles, one can speak about such a possibility.

Iran-USA relations

In 2009 it became finally clear that there would be no significant changes in the relations between Iran and the new US administration after the resignation of G.W. Bush. Though the policy of the former US administration was obviously anti-Iranian, it expressed the natural interests of the US, i.e. the establishment of the control in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Today Tehran, which rights and positions are not less valid than those of Washington, also aspires to establish the control in the same region. Under such conditions one cannot speak about rectification of the relations between Iran and the US despite the fact who is the president of the United States or Iran.

During the clashes in the streets of Tehran some media in the US raised a question whether Obama should improve the relations with that government. Negative answer to this question amid anti-Iranian propaganda was obvious. But it should be mentioned that before the presidential elections in Iran, before the clashes and casualties there were no essential steps made by the Obama administration to settle the relations with Iran. As a result, in May, during one of the Sabbaticals the spiritual leader of Iran A. Khamenei said about the policy of Obama: “One should judge about a person not by his appearance or words but by his intentions and deeds. The later does not differ from the ones there were before”.

The Iranian-American confrontation will continue within next years and the field of the restricted collaboration and the mutual clarifying of the stances between two states will remain the same as it has been in the recent years, i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan. Most probably the parties will have to negotiate and partially cooperate in the processes regarding Pakistan which are important both for Iran and the US.

Iran-Turkey relations

2009 has also been important from the point of view of the development and setting more profound relations with Turkey. The declarative relations between Tehran and Ankara which were two years ago, this year have materialized. In January 2009 Turkish prime-minister R.T. Erdogan stated in Brussels that it made no sense to speak about Nabucco gas pipeline without Iran’s participation to the project. Iran is of great importance for Turkey which aspires to become the biggest energy transportation junction in the region. That state has huge gas reserves, in future it will become the main gas supplier to Europe, and the access to Central Asia through that country is much safer than through Georgia and Azerbaijan. For Iran Turkey, in its turn, is important because the most important rout of the Iranian gas to the EU market goes through its territory, Turkey is an important regional actor for whom the further destabilization of the situation in the region and creation of independent Kurdistan are disadvantageous.

Consequently, Turkish-Iranian relations in 2009 entered into the new stage which can be regarded as strategic partnership, and the visit of Turkey’s prime-minister to Iran can be regarded as historical. During the later Iran and Turkey came to an agreement about the joint development of “South Pars” gas field, building of the gas pipelines and roads, import of the Turkish engineering goods to Iran, export of Iranian gas to Turkey. Besides, the parties agreed to trade only by Iranian rial and Turkish lira, refusing from the US dollar1, and to make steps to create industrial offshore zone near the Turkish-Iranian border, probably in the district of Igdir 2.

Besides, Turkey undertook to buy from Iran 35 billion m3 of natural gas from 2011 which would allow Ankara to provide the functioning of Nabucco without Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries3.

Nuclear issue

In 2009 Iran made the most important step in negotiations round the nuclear weapon issue, i.e. in November Iran “officially and finally” refused to cease the works on uranium enrichment, which, of course, would bring the negotiations with the “six” to a dead-lock and the ways to escape it must be found rather quickly. This is conditioned by president M. Ahmadinejad’s statement that Iran is going to build new uranium enrichment plants which may worsen the situation.

In Israel the adherents of striking the Iranian nuclear infrastructure stepped up their activity, their voices become louder and more acceptable for society and various circles of political forces. Of course, one cannot exclude that M. Ahmadinejad continues the classical Iranian policy of “hold talks as long as you can”, and his aim is to gain much more from international community instead of dismissing uranium enrichment, but at the same time Tehran is approaching the line on the other side of which the creation of the nuclear weapon is seen. The coming year will be rather important for Iranian nuclear programme. It is not excluded that the events for Iran may develop in unfavorable scenario.

Economic policy

In 2009 Iran managed to overcome in general the consequences of the global economic crisis. Though there are still many problems in the country. Trying to avoid the serious economic crisis in the country the Iranian authorities initiated the refunding of the national banks demanding from them to extend terms of credit repayments to physical bodies and legal entities and to continue to provide low-rate credits. As a consequence, according to data for October 2009 the sum of the outstanding credits has been $38 billion and this may cause serious problems in the future.

At the same time, in 2009 the important process of banks nationalization has been initiated in Iran and this process, just from economic point of view, purposes to increase the capitalization of the banks, their competitiveness and effectiveness of management. Particularly, 5% of Mellat, Tejarat and Saderat shares, which are now in circulation on Tehran stock market, has been put up for sale. By March 2010 other 8% will have been put up for sale. Let us mention that main shareholder become the companies and persons, directly connected Iranian political and spiritual elite.

But from the prospective point of view the important event for Iran was the opening of the Iranian oil market on the Kirsh Island on October 19 which preparatory works had been carried out for several recent years. Though the trading on that market is rather small but Chinese and Indian companies has already expressed the wish from 2010 to buy Iranian oil on Iranian oil market using euro and Iranian rial. It is not clear yet how the functioning of the new oil market will influence global economy but the beginning of its functioning at least from informational point of view impacts the US positions which NYSE is the world leader in oil trading and provides to some extent the dominance of the US dollar.

1The same joint decision was made by Turkey and China.

2According to the Minister of Industry of Turkey N. Ergun Syria and Armenia can also join that zone.

3At the same time in November Turkish government allowed Swiss EGL (Elektrizitats-Gesellschaft Laufenburg) Company to export gas from Iran to Europe using its territory.


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