NEW ENERGETIC SITUATION IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
The political situation after South Ossetian war in South Caucasus changed which influenced the security of the energy supply. West changed its former opinion about the region. The countries of the region, for which the status of energy supplier is of strategic importance, begin looking for new ways of strengthening their former position. The issue of energy supply has become actual for Europe as well, which thinks about paving new ways to export energy carriers from the Caspian Sea Basin. The role of Iran rises, as, as a matter of fact, it is the only country which has enough energy carriers and is able to become the only alternative to weaken Europe’s energy dependence on Russia.
Under the new conditions Turkey tries to carry out independent policy stressing up its role as a transit country from east to west. Thus, the program NABUCCO financed by Europe acquires a new significance as new obstacles are posed on its way of realization. Let’s mention that according to this program financed by a number of EU member-states, a gas carrier is to be constructed to transport gas from Iran and the Middle East to Europe through Turkey.
Azerbaijan has long been interested in this program aiming at joining the project and sending to the pipeline its gas from Shahdeniz gas-fields. Let’s mention that the Agreement about the construction of the gas pipeline costing $5 billion was signed in 2007 in Vienne by the ministers of Turkey, Bulgaria, Hungary, Rumania and Austria1. It is expected that the gas pipeline construction is to begin this year, and from 2011 it is to work with all its capacity.
The program has some contradictions not only with Russia and the US. The United States is against exporting gas from Iran to Europe through the territory of Turkey and prefers “dealing with” Azerbaijani gas trying to convince its European colleagues to bye gas from Azerbaijan. Let’s remind that in winter 2007 British Petroleum and StatOil companies announced about the first phase of gas extraction from Shahdeniz gas-fields2. According to Azerbaijani specialists, the capacity of gas extraction till the end of this year will make 22 million cubic meters a day, 14 million out of which may be exported. In spite of the fact that this extent is not enough, however, official Baku is ready to join the program.
South Ossetian war has considerably changed Europeans’ opinion about energy issues. In particular, it is already clear that the Azerbaijani gas can not be the alternative of the Russian one not only because of its small extent, but also because of instability in Georgia.
Today new suggestions and standpoints are studied for realization of NABUCCO program, in particular, according to «The Christian Science Monitor», Russia is very much interested in the program as it wants to export Russian gas through the gas pipeline3. According to the journal, this alternative is more pragmatic than the previously suggested ones. However, in this case as well the main objective is not reached – the objective of crating alternatives of Russian energy carriers. Let’s remind that Russia is connected with Turkey with the gas pipeline “Blue Stream,” which, however, doesn’t work at full power, i.e. if needed, this gas pipeline may be connected up with NABUCCO, and the Russian gas will flow to Europe. However, as it has already been mentioned, under such conditions Europe’s dependence on Russian energy carriers only raises. Accordingly, the political significance of constructing NABUCCO is lost. The only way to neutralize the Russian factor, according to the project sponsors, is involving Iran into the project.
According to many experts, the recent improvements in Turkish-Iranian relations are connected with this very issue. The visit of Iran’s president Ahmadinejad to Ankara and his reception on the highest level has not only resulted Washington’s dissatisfaction but has also formed an opinion in the whole West that Turkey aspires at expediting NABUCCO program realization and Iran is the main exporter of gas in this program. Besides, in his regional policy Turkey’s present leader tries to accentuate its independence of Washington and energy importance for Europe – as the alternative of the Russian one. It is clear that Iran also tries to make use of the present situation. After the last war in Caucasus a chance has been provided for Iran to increase its significance to the maximum as the alternative country-supplier of energy. Iran’s Energy Minister Gholam Nozari has announced that the objective of his country is to possibly extend its relations with the Russian energy Giant “Gazprom.” Nozary suggests carrying out gas exchange: to get it in the north and, instead of it, put out gas (in corresponding extent) from the gas-field located in the south of the country4. Let’s mention that in its time it was suggested to organize such an exchange through the gas pipeline Nika-Ray constructed by Iran connecting the Caspian Port Nika with the oil-refining factory located not far from Teheran. Today, making use of the complicated situation, Iran tries to give importance to its country in exporting energy carriers from the Caspian Sea Basin. Let’s also mention that under the conditions of Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline’s inactivity and the crisis in Georgia, the Azerbaijani oil has also began flowing to the south – through the territory of Iran to the international market.
In this way Iran tries to get possibly more dividends to suggest its own territory as an alternative and make use of transit privileges. At the same time, Iran wages a struggle to make its role more active in NABUCCO program which is becoming of strategic importance for Europeans. However, let’s mention that the US is against the program of involving Iran into the program and suggests the Azerbaijani gas as an alternative. During his visit to Baku the US Vice-President Dick Cheney made this issue the topic of active discussions. After a trip to Europe he appeared with an interesting announcement, in particular suggesting to invite Armenia along with Georgia and Azerbaijan to the energy summit to be held in November5. i.e. after the South-Ossetian conflict Armenia is considered in the west as an alternative energy corridor through the territory of which energy may be supplied to the west in case of new aggravations in Georgia. These talks became more concrete after the president of Turkey’s visit (to Armenia) when the issue of Gyumri-Kars railroad relaunching seems to have become more realistic. It is also to be reminded that after his visit to Yerevan, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ali Babajan in his interview to “Rayters” also mentioned Armenia’s role as a possible alternative country for energy supply.
1ИА REGNUM «Новости», Строительство газопровода NABUCCO начнется в 2008 году, www.regnum.ru/news/663612.html 27.06.2006.
2ИА REGNUM «Новости», BP и «Статойл» объявили о начале добычи коммерческого газа на «Шахдениз» (Азербайджан), www.regnum.ru/news
3ИА REGNUM «Новости», Война в Южной Осетии перевела проект Nabucco в русло прагматизма: «The Christian Science Monitor». Постоянный адрес новости: www.regnum.ru/news/1043813.html 19.08.2008.
4MIGnews.com Иран предложил себя вместо Грузии. 27.08.
5ИА REGNUM «Новости». Дик Чейни предложил пригласить Грузию, Армению и Азербайджан на заседание ЕС по энергетической политике. www.regnum.ru/news/1051710.html 08.09.2008.
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