Possible developments in the Middle East
On February 16 in “Noravank” Foundation was held a seminar on the subject of “Possible developments in the Middle East”.
The reporter, the Foundation’s director Gagik Harutyunyan, pointed out the importance of expert analysis from the standpoint of evaluating up-to-date and perspective regional developments.
In today’s international life the relations between the US and Iran are of core importance. These countries have been confronting for about 3 decades and are stepping into quite a new stage, which may also case change in the world order. At present, the issues of the future of global American domination are being decided in the Middle East.
The American party consistently accuses Iran of assisting terrorist groupings operating in Iraq. It is known that the “image of enemy”, made by Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, has lost its attraction. At present, the information policy outlines the image of the main US enemy – Iran, and at the same time blames that country for the US failure in Iraq. One of the manifestations of information-psychological pressure on Iran is the actively circulating information that in the spring of this year US will deliver air blows on Iran.
The logic of political developments prompts that all the former and present plans in the Middle East at least suppose overthrowing and braking up the Iranian government by ethical-religious principle. The US military forces have been brought to complete alertness to begin military operations against Iran.
It is obvious that the US strategy in the Middle East has made great strides: wars, inter-ethnic and inter-confessional contradictions reduce to dust human, political and economic resources, at that making that region, so important both in the geopolitical and geo-economic plane, easily controllable for the US.
At the same time, the activities of the US in that region give way to duel commentaries. The US managed to divide Iraq, however, the developments connected with Iraqi Kurdistan spoiled the relations of the US and Israel with Turkey.
The reporter paid special attention to the role of Iran as well as the ones of China and Russia. Besides, in the context of the present situation, G. Harutyunyan presented a few scenarios of developments:
- The US will try to make Iran make certain concessions by means of its military resources, owing to which the US will preserve its image and will partially solve its regional problems.
- Iran will not make concessions, and the US will not face military confrontation basing on internal political (pressure from the part of Democratic party) foreign policy (the possible acute reaction of the international community) and mere political (the efficiency of Iran’s anti-aircraft defense strategy, possibility of return blow, as well as by implementing nuclear weapons) considerations. It may be perceived as a concession from the side of the US not only in the regional, but also in a global scale.
- US will strike a short-term air blow over Iran without presenting an ultimatum. These operations do not aim at overthrowing the government or initiating civil clashes in the country, but realize tactical scheme of exterminating certain nuclear objects. Such a scenario will allow the US to leave the region to some extent “preserving its face” and protect its reputation.
- US realizes “Yugoslavian version”, when air strikes are not limited by time and continue until Iran accepts an ultimatum. Permanent air strikes, accompanied by special operations, may cause internal clashes and, as a result, braking up of Iran by the Iraqi scenario. Such a development will make a chaotic situation in the region, the results of which may tell on the processes going on not only in the region, but also in the global geopolitical plane.
