03.12.2007

NORAVANK LECTURING SHAVARSH KOCHARYAN: DEMOGRAPHY OF ARMENIA IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENTS

On November 28 in “Noravank” Foundation was delivered a lecture on the subject “Armenia and Armenians in global developments: the present situation and challenges” (lectured by Shavarsh Kocharyan: the president of Democratic Party) in accordance with the “Noravank” educational program on “Armenia and the Armenians in global developments: the present situation and challenges.”

The analysis made by the lecturer aimed at attracting everybody’s attention on alarming tendencies of the Armenian demography, which is more obvious in comparison with other countries. Sh. Kocharyan made his lecture touching upon three interrelated problems:

1. The dynamic of the growth of humanity up till now and predictions for the future.

2. Disproportion of rise and changes of demographic structure in accordance with continents and countries.

3. The influence of demographic changes on different countries and especially on Armenia.

It has not been defined the exact time of the appearance of a human being as a result of evolution. This period of time has a tendency to rise continuously. In any case, it is accepted that for about 100 thousand people lived on the planed for about a million years ago. At the moment the planet has a population of 6.5 billion, which makes 6.5% of population which has lived on the planet up till now. If we accept that the exhaustion of the world resources by a person has always been the same and 100 billion people have been arranged evenly within 10000 years of the existence of humanity, than one can say that at present the humanity annually exhausts as many resources as in the past it used to exhaust within 650 years.

According to different estimations, in the beginning of Common Era the world had a population of 100-400 million. It took them 1800 years to step the limit of 1 billion, which means that annual rise of each 10000 people made 6 people.

However, the rate of growth was unprecedented in XX century. In XX century the world population became trice as big as before, exceeding the limit of 6 billion. The unprecedented annual rise in population reported in XX century will hardly be repeated in the future: in 60-70s it made 20 people for each 1000 people. In XX century it was also reported the biggest average rise in population – for about 80 people. One should pay special attention that the population of 67 states out of the existing 192 ones makes 80 million.

2. Predictions for the rise in population for the future

The only prediction for the future is the decrease in the rise of population which is already obvious at the end of XX century and is taken into consideration by the specialists to make future predictions. According to the UN provided information, in 2000-2025 the annual rise in population will make 11 for each 1000 people, and in 2025-2050 – 6 people for each 100 people. To make estimations of the continuous decrease in the rise of population, let’s accept that during III century the world population will double every hundred years. In this case the annual rise in population for every 1000 people will be 2 people, which is 10 times less then the one in 1960s. Under these conditions by 3000 the world population will make 6 trillion. To imagine this number, let’s say that it equals with today’s 5000 population of China. In that case the space per person will make 20 square meters, as a comparison let’s mention that the space per person today makes 23000 square meters.

Most of the specialists today tend to think that the number of world population will never exceed the number of 12-15 billion.

3. Asymmetric rise of population over the continents and countries

Decrease in the rise in population, as a common tendency, is quite asymmetric in different parts of the world.

So, in 1804 the population of China and India made approximately half of the world billionth population. Within the past period of time the population of China increased by one billion and the population of India – by 870 million. From the other hand, the specific gravity of these countries is falling as a result of high rate of growth in population in other countries. For example, in 1804 the population in the US made 6 million, today it makes 300 million, which is 50 times as much as it used to be.

If in 1950 the population in Europe made 21.4% of the world population and the population of Africa – 8.9%, than in 2000 the population in Europe already made 12% of the world population, and the one of Africa – 13%. 50 years ago for about 227 people lived in Africa, in 2000 – 805 million; in 2050 it will make 1.845, i.e. the population of Africa will increase by 8 times within 100 years.

Kenya is the striking example of it: in 1955 it had a population of 6 million and today – 34 million. Within 50 years the population increased 5.7 times (if the Armenian population had increased that fast, the country would have a population of 10 million people). According to the specialists, within the period of 2000-2005 the number of population will increase by 1.5 times; at the same time, the population in Africa will increase by 2.3 times and the population in Europe will decrease by 12%. Accordingly, 59% of humanity will be living in Asia, 20% - in Africa and 7% - in Europe.

The asymmetry in growth of population is also characteristic to separate countries. Let’s bring several examples:

1. If in 2000 the number of population in all the UN countries increased by 343 thousand a year then India had such an increase within 6 days.
2. 50 years ago the number of population in India was 3 times as many as the population in Morocco; however, in 50 years it will be1.5 times less.
3. 50 years ago the population in Japan was 4 times as many as the one of the Philippines, in 50 years it will be 1.5 times less.
4. 50 years ago the population in Russia (exluding the post USSR countries) was 3 times as many as the population of Pakistan, in 50 years it will be 2.5 times less. It is noteworthy that in spite of the fact that 70% of people ill with AIDS live in Africa, it doesn’t decrease the rate of population growth in the African countries.

Asymmetry in the rise of population is also peculiar to democratic countries. The highest rate of growth in population is fixed in the US, Israel and Ireland, and the lowest (negative growth) – in Japan, Italy and Spain.

4. Decrease in the rise of population and the aging of population

Decrease in the rate of growth in population, and especially the negative growth leave serious after-effects on demographic structure. One of such after-effects is the increase of number of the middle-aged population in the world. From the demographic standpoint the aging of Europe is obvious. If in 1950 the mean age of a European was 29, in 2000 – 38, then in 2050 it will be 50. For the first time in the world history in 2050 will be recorded the following figures: the number of people under 15 will be less then the number of ones past 60. The number of the latter ones will reach to 220 million making 35% of the population in Europe.

Since 1950 to 2000 the number of population past 60 in Europe increased by 2.5 times, whereas the total number of population increased by 1.3 times. Today people past 75 make 7% of the world population; the same figure for Europe is 16%.

Aging of population has a serious influence on a family – the number of married women is decreasing, is increasing the number of middle-aged women getting married for the first time and giving birth to the first-born. Birth rate is decreasing and is increased the number of illegitimate children and divorces.

As a matter of fact, the institute of a traditional family faces the danger of disappearance which may not but influence on the systems of upbringing and education of children. 50% of illegitimate children born in Switzerland, Norway and Estonia have come to prove it, and the number of ones born in Island exceeds the limit of 60%. As for Armenia, in comparison with Middle European, it is a matter of serious concern by its low percentage of married women and much lower birth rate.

It is very important the percentage ratio between the people from 15 to 64 and the ones older than 65 which is fraught with serious consequences, as well as social ones. This showing reveals the ratio between workers and pensioners. If in 1959 this ratio was 1 to 9 accordingly, today - 1-5, then in 2050 it will make 1-2. This tendency has a serious influence on policy carried out by the government in the fields of social insurance, public health and ensuring care of elderly people.

Accordingly, aging results insufficient number of man power, which makes many aging countries (Germany, France) stimulate immigration of man power.

5. Aging and immigration

The main reason of aging is decrease in birth rate; however, average duration of a human life is gradually playing more and more important role. The second characteristic is more typical for developed countries, where there is a higher level of medical care, social security of aged people and welfare as a whole.

There are two main approaches to overcome this problem: stimulation of immigration and encouraging increase in birth rate.

Although immigration may solve the problem of overcoming decrease in the number of population, however it is almost unable to prevent its aging. Analytical research in connection with Germany’s immigration policy has come to prove it. According to the information provided by the UN, the number of population in Germany (today-83 million) will make 57 million by 2050. Taking this fact into consideration, the German authorities have planned and are realizing emigration of 200.000 people annually, as a result of which the country will have a population of 71 million by 2050. To preserve the present amount of its population, Germany needs to ensure immigration of 344.000 people annually. Should it peruse an aim to preserve the present number of people of 16-64, the number of immigration should reach 487.000. And if an attempt is made to preserve the present ratio of people between the ones of 15-65 and the ones past 65, than it will be necessary to ensure immigration of 3.600.000 people annually. It means that four about 180 million people should immigrate into Germany within 50 years.

However immigration gives birth to another problem, which has not been settled in Europe yet. It is incomplete integration of immigrants and their descendents, which jeopardizes the country’s social consolidation and is fraught with social tension. The latest disturbances in France are the result of incomplete integration of immigrants.

The policy of stimulating growth of birth rate by the government is more affective. Thanks to this policy it was possible to overcome the decrease of population in Scandinavian countries and achieve a positive growth. However, taking into consideration the overall tendency of decrease in the rate of growth of population, such a policy may solve the problem of positive growth, but will not completely solve the problem of aging.

6. Demography of Armenia and the regional countries

Till 1989 the natural growth of population of Armenia was the same as the average growth in the world. However, after 1989 one could witness a drastic decrease and the positive growth of population was converted into a negative one. The population of Armenia could also increase on the account of hundreds of thousands of refugees (from Azerbaijan, Abkhazia, Northern Caucasia, Georgia), however, most of them were not settled in their native land. The dynamic of the main demographic indices in Armenia are the subject of serious concern. Beginning from 1990s it is fixed a considerable decrease in the number of marriages, new-born and birth rate, at the same time has been increased the number of illegitimate children. This “demographic pit” will have more and more influence on different spheres of life. One of them is the army. If before 1990 for about 80.000 children per year were born in Armenia, then in mid 1990s this number was reduced to 30.000. In its time, when 80.000 children were born annually regardless to their sex, it was possible to gather an army of 60 within two years. Today, when this number makes 30.000, at best it will be possible to gather 30 thousand conscripts within 2 years. Today we are facing the problem of making a fundamental reform of Army, which, in its turn, needs time.

According to the forecast of specialists, the decreased number of population in Armenia will not change till 2050, this number will be reduced by 20-23% in Georgia and Russia, and the population of Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey will be increased by 24-35%. It is noteworthy that there is an asymmetric rise of population not only among continents or countries, but also within a separate country. The percentage of Muslim population in Russia is increased on the account of high birth rate. In Georgia, in parallel with decrease of the total number of population, there is a high rate of growth of Azerbaijanis inhabited there: it may be forecasted that by 2050 every 5th resident in Georgia will be an Azerbaijani.

The lowest level of birth rate in the region is fixed in Armenia, and the highest one - In Turkey. The comparison of other data has also come to prove that Armenia is aging comparatively faster.

7. The reasons of cooperatively abrupt decrease in the number of population of separate countries

There is a widespread idea according to which decrease in the population growth is conditioned by bad social conditions. However, the comparative data reveal quite an opposite picture: as a rule, rapid growth is more peculiar to poor countries. In developed countries, if we don’t take into consideration immigration, the tendency of natural growth is mainly negative.

Two factors further decrease in growth of population:

- Globalization, already actual in the countries of western democracy and at present spreading all over the world.

- Urbanization: 35 years ago 2/3 of population was inhabited outside big countries and in 35 years 2/3 of the world population will live in big countries (today Tokyo has a population of 26.5 million, together with suburbs – 34.5 million).

Decrease in the rate of growth in population and aging in the countries with western kind of democracy may be explained by globalization and urbanization. To reveal the other factors furthering decrease in the growth of population, let’s turn to the developed countries with comparatively high level of decrease. These are Italy, Germany, Portugal and Japan. One may mention that these are the modern developed countries which, in their time, underwent abrupt junction from the totalitarian or authoritarian system to the present day democracy. We may witness the same picture in Post-Soviet countries, where the demographic indices yield to the Middle European ones. Thus, transition periods further faster decrease in the growth of rate of population.

The maximum rate of growth in population are reported in the US, Israel, Canada and Australia. All these countries carry out a policy of stimulating immigration. However, as it was mentioned above, immigration by itself doesn’t ensure improvement of demographic indices if the immigrants don’t preserve high rate of birth characteristic to the countries they came from.

As a result, one can see a contradiction: Complete integration of immigrants is followed by decrease in the rate of growth and preservation of high level of birth rate is possible under the conditions of comparative isolation.

To understand how the above mentioned countries manage to avoid these contradictions, let’s pay attention to the fact that these 5 countries are divided into 2 groups.

The first group includes Israel and Ireland. The immigrants of these countries are mainly their representatives, which facilitates the process of integration.

The second group includes the US, Canada and Australia, which are not national states. These countries are very tolerant to the traditions (religious, language, cultural or national) of immigrants. As a result, the specific gravity of immigrants in these countries is continuously increasing at the same time not causing serious concern in the society as these states were established by the very immigrants.

These contradictions remain unsolvable for most of the western countries. If and European country follows the experience of the US, in the near future this very nation may become a minority in its own country.

Both for Israel and Ireland are characteristic comparatively high indices of immigration and birth rate. The connection of these indices is not by chance and may be an outcome of state policy directed at preserving traditional systems of spiritual values. Implementation of such a policy in Israel is in memory of Holocaust and a state approach to preserve traditional way of living

As for Armenia, one may state as a fact that high speed of destruction of the systems of spiritual values in the country are accompanied by abrupt worsening of demographic indices. In particular, the destruction of the traditional systems of spiritual values in Armenia were furthered by: Integration of the nation, non-protection of an individual and impunity of authorities and the shadow economy intertwined with it, corruption, utmost social polarization, ignoring of problems in the humanitarian sphere (culture, science, education), absence of perspective state programs in the framework of the chosen direction and the future of the country.

Resume

In this way the demographic tendencies of the world population are:

• Decrease in the rate of growth of population;
• Asymmetric growth of population over regions, countries and within separate national states;
• Aging of the population;
• International migration;
• Urbanization;
• Globalization;
• Danger of AIDS and other epidemics to be spread.

The UN expert Joseph Cheymi has characterized all these tendencies and their outcomes as “a new international demographic order.” This new order gives birth to newer social, economic and political after effects in the regions and countries. The influence of a new order is more obvious in Europe, and, as for our region - in Armenia and Georgia.