
«21-րդ ԴԱՐ» No. 3, 2016
The issue No. 3 of the «21-րդ ԴԱՐ» (“21st Century”) journal for 2016 has been published by Noravank Foundation, containing articles on global and national ranking of think tanks (V. Atoyan), cognitive and psychological characteristics of a diplomat (A. Navasardyan), game theory modeling of the German policy of sanctions against Russia (D. Sarkisyan), peculiarities of information operations during the “April war” (A. Ghalechyan), energy geopolitics (A. Manvelyan) and other noteworthy topics.
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http://pressinfo.am/en/journal/armenian-information-analytical-magazine-21-st-century.html
Purchase: “Noravank” Foundation
Address: 23/1 Garegin Njdeh, Yerevan,
Phone:+374 10 44 04 73, +374 93 54 31 71
INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE IN GLOBAL AND NATIONAL RANKING OF THINK THANKS
Vardan AtoyanResume
Modern think thank activities have become one of the most important subjects of political science research. In addition, rapid development of the Internet, technologies for collecting, processing, analyzing and transmitting information provides an opportunity to implement research in economic, political, sociological areas not only at national, but also international levels, by using open source databases and capacities of domestic and international experts.
The above mentioned processes have led to emergence of various ranking organizations that perform ranking at international and national levels. On the other hand, the methodology applied in the reports by organizations that implement global ranking and faults of specialists involved in preparation of reports, as well as some other subjective reasons sometimes bring to forming a picture that is not objective. Emphasizing the importance of this issue, including the necessity of research, monitoring and professional evaluation of rapidly developing think thanks in Armenia, as well as considering that think thanks are considered one of the main components of national security system, the establishment of a national ranking system based on the international practices has become a pressing matter.
The article discusses international practice of establishing such systems, methodology and shortcomings of published reports, necessity of having a national ranking system in Armenia.
SOME COGNITIVE AND PSYCHOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A DIPLOMAT
Arman NavasardianResume
Classic diplomacy and its supplement, the so-called civic diplomacy, have a great role in shaping the country's image in international relations. It is an important means to defend its national interests in foreign affairs. The article discusses the peculiarities of a diplomat's formal and interpersonal communications and relationships during overseas business trips, as well as the possibilities and difficulties in sharing information, especially for diplomatic services of small countries. Based on the studies of outstanding authors of diplomacy theory, the author refers to another almost unstudied field of diplomacy, that is, some of the traits of a perfect diplomat.
GAME THEORY MODELING OF THE GERMAN POLICY OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
David SarkisyanResume
The paper analyses the aspect of economic sanctions in the relations between Germany and Russia in the aftermath of the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis. Models for dynamic, finitely and infinitely repeated games were applied for comprehensive analysis of the strategic interaction. The influence of domestic, economic and geopolitical factors on the decisionmaking process in both countries was considered. Based on the predictions of the models, possible development scenarios were constructed.
SOME PECULIARITIES OF INFORMATION OPERATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE “APRIL WAR”
Armen GhalechyanResume
The analysis of information environment during the four-day April war indicates that thanks to savvy actions of our IT specialists and the executed information operation, the adversary’s information environment was shocked in the first days thereafter: most media just kept silence or merely responded to our information. The adversary’s propaganda machine was disconnected from the ongoing situation at the frontline and spread disinformation about “successes” of their armed forces. The Armenian side carried out an information counterstrike, ensuring active, targeted, diverse and preventive actions. The confidentiality of operations was strictly enforced.
THE EVOLUTION HISTORY OF THE MASS MEDIA
Nvard MelkonyanResume
The processes of globalization and massive transformation occurring in the modern world, and the increasing role of information in the life of the society create a pressing need to study the historical and social differentiation of the mass media functions, their significance and role in social processes, and fundamental changes in their functioning.
The article examines the prerequisites and causes of emergence of each mass media type, as well as the influence of various social and political factors on that. The main focus is on the increase and complexity of the public and technological need for information, and development of ways to communicate information to various audiences.
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEMS AND ENERGY GEOPOLITICS
Armen ManvelyanResume
Security, especially in modern time, is the most urgent issue in the agenda of international relations. Full-fledged relations and strategic development are hard to imagine without security. Unsurprisingly, the most powerful countries in the world also need effective and full security systems that ensure stability and peace. Currently the security systems may be considered effective only if the energy component is incorporated in them. Impact of the energy factor on security systems is not studied well. In this context the author deliberates on the terms of energy security and energy geopolitics.
INDICATORS CHARACTERIZING THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN THE DIFFERENT GROUPS OF COUNTRIES
Ashot Markosyan, Boris AvagyanResume
For comparison of market institutions development in different (mainly countries in transition with the state of the institutions in countries with developed market) groups of countries indicators characterizing the business environment are now increasingly used. These indicators are used when comparing different groups of countries, which are based on either income level or geographic proximity. Moreover, under the fierce competition, a favorable business environment is the "magnet" that attracts investments.
Based on a research carried out in the framework of Doing Business, the authors conducted their own comparative analysis of aggregate indicators for countries grouped in terms of income, membership in various organizations (such as the OECD, the European Union, countries of the former Soviet Union, all the post-communist countries, EAEC) and in geographical proximity (for example Armenia and neighboring countries). The results obtained are briefly summarized in the article. One of the most important conclusions made by the authors is that for improving the business environment it is not so important in which group a country is included. What is more important in achieving this goal, is the political will of governments, as well as the quality of governance in the country.
THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE TRADE BALANCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA
Aghasi TavadyanResume
With the current structure of the trade balance, Armenia faces the problem of trade balance optimization and needs to increase its competiveness. With a relatively high real refinance rate, the monetary instruments have a mostly curtailing effect on the market. In this case, the monetary policy in fact holds back the economic growth instead of regulating the inflation. For the economic growth and optimization of the trade balance it would be prudent if the real refinancing rate would not exceed 2%. Gradual reduction of the refinancing rate and reserve requirements would contribute to economic growth and increase the competiveness of the Armenian economy.
UNIFICATION OF KARS REGION WITH ARMENIA AND RISE OF ARMENIAN-GEORGIAN DISCORD ON ARDAHAN (JANUARY-APRIL 1919)
Shirak TorosyanResume
In the years of the First Republic of Armenia one of the problems causing discord in Armenian-Georgian relations was the possession of Ardahan. Ardahan was the only access gate of Armenia to Black Sea through nearby territories. Laying claims on Ardahan, the Menshevik government of Georgia strived to keep Armenia in transit dependence by denying it access to the sea. On January 8, 1919 the British occupation authorities made a decision to hand Kars region over to Armenia. However, soon after they changed their decision and on January 21 left it to the control of the so-called South-Western Caucasian Republic Provisional Government Shura. This was done to make sure that Russia (Denikin’s Volunteer Army) does not get a hold in the region. The Shura implemented outrageous and pro-Russian policies, so the British revised the decision and on April 12, 1919 dissolved the Shura, and returned Kars region to Armenia. On April 23-24 the Armenian administration and troops entered Kars, whereas with British permission the Georgian troops occupied Northern Ardahan (north of Ardahan and Potskhov). However, the Menshevik government of Georgia laid claims on southern part of Ardahan as well. Thus, a new discord emerged in Armenian-Georgian relations, which continued till the collapse of both republics.
TRANSFORMATIONS OF THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT OF YEREVAN IN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEW REALITIES
Levon MargaryanResume
In recent years new processes have emerged in sociopolitical life of Armenia, which reflect in various areas of public life, including the transformations occurring in the urban environment. Transformations of the urban environment in the post-Soviet or modern Yerevan are accompanied by political discussions and different demonstrations of civil society. The new post-Soviet economic system, and the current transitional political situation in Armenia directly and indirectly impact on the transformations in the urban environment and on the discussions around them.
THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE PROCESS OF ENSURING NATIONAL SECURITY: THE SITUATION IN ARMENIA
Ashkhen BeglaryanResume
The perception of security has changed in the 21st century, due to which the state is no longer viewed as the sole entity for ensuring the national security. There is a need to revise the national security paradigm and to study the impacts of its new actors. The article presents the role of civil society in ensuring the national security, reviews the issues of government-civil society relationships in Armenia, and makes a conclusion that there is a need to develop a mechanism or program for regulation of relations between the state and civil society.