24.03.2015

STUDY OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA (research project)

SECOND REPORT (demographics, development strategies and technologies)

INTRODUCTION

The emigration rate in Armenia is extremely high, and therefore, the current demographic situation (DS) should be classified as one of the primary challenges threatening the political and socioeconomic stability and security of the Republic of Armenia (RoA). It has to be noted that the measures so far undertaken in this area have not significantly improved the situation, which means the decisions made for solution of demographic problems and traditional methods of their implementation are not too effective. This is in part due to the fact that the applied measures are not aimed at eliminating the main causes for emigration.

This study attempts to develop a concept note on improvement of RoA DS, based on a method of determining “critical areas and infrastructures”, which is commonly accepted in the area of national security (see Chapter 1). According to our approach, the “critical” status should be assigned to the area of demographics per se. At the same time, the “human capital” is a crucial factor in demographic issues, and the qualitative and quantitative indices reflecting its development level are directly dependent on the development strategy. It is also obvious that if the latter does not exist, then indices characterizing the state of the human capital deteriorate considerably, something that currently happens in Armenia. It also has to be emphasized that the human capital is formed in the “technological” (in the most broadly interpreted meaning of this term) structures of the society. Hence, in our approach, the status of “critical infrastructure” should also be assigned to the “technological” area, as well as scientific fields that “nurture” it. Only in this case a socioeconomic environment might emerge that would prompt the population to tie their future with Armenia.

In order to assess the proposed concept in terms of the impact on development strategy and demographics, both domestic and international experiences were studied. Simultaneously, brainstorming discussions were held and in-depth interviews with elements of concealed sociological techniques were conducted, which were published in media. Recommendations were provided based on the results of the above-mentioned studies, which we believe may practically contribute to the development of the technological sector, in turn leading to positive impact on DS already in the short term. The conclusions of the study may also contribute to some extent to the possible process of devising a development strategy in the medium term.

The working group expresses appreciation to Artem Asatryan, RoA Minister of Labor and Social Affairs and the UNFPA Armenia Country Office for sponsoring the research. We are also thankful to Flora Vladimirovna Nakhshkaryan, Editor-in-Chief of Golos Armenii newspaper, for information support and moral backing.