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13.10.2006

Washington and Moscow desiring to change the world’s missile balance

   

Samvel Martirosyan 

Russia and the US are on the brink of initiating the possible change of missile balance both between the two countries and on a global scale. On August 27, 2006 in the city of Fairbanks in Alaska a meeting was held between the defense ministers of Russia and the US Donald Rumsfeld and Sergei Lavrov timed at the ceremony for the dedication of a memorial to the Alaska-Siberia Lend Lease program. Here the parties made a number of announcements on possible serious reassessment of up-to-date balance of powers in the field of long and intermediate range missiles as well as the system of AMD (antimissile defense).

Donald Rumsfeld informed that Washington is considering the version of re-equipping a part of intercontinental ballistic missiles by replacing the nuclear war-heads by the conventional ones. For the United States such a step is officially considered to be an attempt to show a stronger counteraction to international terrorism and acquire a chance of striking long-ranging preventive blows over the bases of terrorists. According to Rumsfeld, a serious need may be created for the coming 5-10 years to use re-equipped missiles with a view to counteract international terrorism.

However, such an approach was unacceptable for the Russian party. In particular one of the voiced problems turned to be impossibility to determine the type of the launched rocked. Tracking systems will not be able determine the cartridge of the missile (nuclear or conventional) launched by the US. Sergai Ivanov spoke against Rumsfeld’s suggestion. He voiced doubt in necessity to load so powerful and expensive missiles by conventional explosives: “As much as I understand the case in point is to enlarge at maximum possibilities for striking preventive blows”. Ivanov pointed out that in theory cruise missiles of long range may be used: “Besides, intermediate-range missiles are also theoretically possible to use, however Russia and the US can not own it in comparison with many other countries possessing it”.

As a matter of fact, in answer to Rumsfeld’s suggestion, Russia’s Defense Ministry appeared with an announcement about possibility by RF to leave the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. According to this treaty signed in 1987 the US and USSR dismantled all INF missiles with ranges of between 500 and 5000 km. The day of the meeting of the two foreign ministers Russia’s departments informed about working out the possibility to leave the Treaty. An unknown representative of RA Defense Ministry made quite a tough announcement that Russia may unilaterally leave the Treaty as such a precedent will not be the unique one (in 1972 the US withdrew Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty). “In 20-30 years, such a country as Fiji, or any other country will own intermediate-range missiles. Only the US and Russia will nor own it. The Americans understand well enough that the Russian intermediate range missiles don’t get to the US territory even theoretically if only they are not set in Chukot Peninsula, but they are sure not to be deployed there”, announces the representative of the Foreign Ministry. According to him, the main incentive is the change of geopolitical situation in the world, appearance of a big number of countries in Eurasian continent, which make their own operational-tactical missiles or are equipped by the missiles of foreign production: “We have got other neighbors in regard to which we would better have intermediate-range missiles, instead of ballistic ones, and not necessarily with missile warheads”.

Another subject of negotiations became the systems of antimissile defense (AMD). In answer to the US attempts, which withdrew the treaty about AMD still in 2001, to begin deploying systems in the territory of Europe, Sergei Ivanov urged Washington to work possibly transparent in that direction “not to further the other countries to make facilities of overcoming AMD systems”.

Both of the announcements of the defense minister are connected with each other, as means of overcoming AMD systems may become cruise missiles and intermediate-range missiles.

Still last year Washington began negotiations with a number of European countries on deploying AMD systems in their territories. The work is supposed to be over in 2011, cost of the system which includes deployment of space groupings and radio-locating system (RLS) of preliminary warning makes up $75, 6 billion. In its plans Washington successfully uses clamor raised over Iran’s nuclear threat.

Washington considered Great Britain, Poland, Czechia and Belgium to be its possible partners. For the time being the British governing body has given its consent to modernize the American radar complexes established in the British air force base at Fylingdales on the North Yorkshire and deploy a system of electronic tracking in Manwishill’s military base. In Czechia the issue of deploying AMD is supposed to be put to national referendum and the decision may be made only months later. Poland gave an actual consent to take part in the program. During his visit to the US, Poland’s prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski gave his consent to deploy 10 antimissile emplacements in Poland’s territory.

The US plans of deploying AMD system have far reaching goals. From the one hand, provoking Russia to withdraw INF treaty, Washington strives for frightening the European states, which are sure to see in such steps of the Kremlin threat for their security. Thus, the US involves Europe into a nuclear game on the level of a background actor. It is obvious that antimissiles’ deployment in Europe is directed against Russia and Iran, the latter one has no defensible intentions to use its operational tactical armament against the European countries. At the same time Europe becomes more vulnerable for the attack of terrorist groupings, which will accept deployment of AMD system as continuation of western expansion against the Islamic world.

From the other hand the US will not stop at that. Making use of North Korea’s ongoing development of missile power, the US will try to strengthen its role in the Pacific region. In particular, still in 2005 the Japan government made a decision of working out AMD system together with the US and after missile test of DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) in July of this year, Tokyo became more decisive in his intention. Though it is not excluded that missile escalation may lead to inverse effect and cause cooperation of such conflicting powers as China, Japan and Taiwan. At the same time, besides DPRK, Russia, which wants to begin deploying missile groupings of intermediate and long range, may also become a potential treat for the regional countries (see  nuclearweaponarchive.org on the US nuclear arsenal).

On the whole one may say that Rumsfeld’s suggestion on re-equipping long-range missiles doesn’t express the real aspirations of the US. Equipping of expensive ballistic missiles of strategic equipping with conventional cartridges will be quite ineffective. Taking into account not high precision, circular error probable (CEP) of the best missiles is for about 200-250 meters; a conventional cartridge of this much power is not able cause serious losses to terrorist organizations, especially taking into consideration their readiness to such blows, which the fortifications of Hezbollah in Lebanon expressively showed.

Most probably this is the beginning of American strategy aiming at changing balance in the world. From the one hand the US involves Europe in its plans on AMD. From the other hand the beginning of the process of Russia leaving Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty will heighten tension in Eurozone, thus forcing the EU member countries to join a new arms race. At last, the most serious shifts may happen in the Pacific region, where the missile threat by DPRK is accepted by neighbor countries as a reality.

Russian operating strategic nuclear arsenal is at present presented by approximately 6000 strategic nuclear BB (battle blocks) for 1200 units of carriers: IBM (Intercontinental ballistic missile) and bombers of DA, capable of conveying nuclear BBs to targets. Full evaluative power of these BB is for about 2900 megaton in trotyl equivalent.

Russian strategic land-base IBM in structure of SMT (Strategic missile troops) are deployed on 19 missile bases. Russian strategic ASBM (Atomic submarines with ballistic missiles) with SLBM (submarine launched ballistic missiles) function in structures of northern and Pacific Navies with five naval bases – bases of ASBM

Strategic bombers of Russia’s long-range aviation are based on three air bases of Russia. The above mentioned forces make Russia’s strategic offensive potential and arsenal.

In addition to that arsenal in Moscow is deployed a defensive system of AMD in consisting of 100 antimissile-interceptors of “surface (land)-to-air” class including: 64 SH-08 ABM-3 Gazelle and 36 SH-11 ABM-4 Gorgon These antimissiles of AMD may be equipped by BB. However, according to some information, their nuclear warheads are likely to be undocked.

Besides, according to information released by National Resources Defense Council Russia also has got impressive operating-battle arsenal of tactic/operating-tactic nuclear weapon consisting of till 4000 units of nuclear weapon (warheads and etc.). According to those estimations Russia’s Navy has up to 1200 navy nuclear warheads for equipping SLCM (Sea launched cruise missiles) ships and suchlike submarines as well as anti-submarine arms.

According to the estimation of the above mentioned US council, Russia has up to 10000 ammunition of “indefinite status”, ready to be equipped or warheads kept in reserves. If we include those 10000 units of warheads into Russia’s nuclear arsenal, then the full arsenal of nuclear ammunition in Russia will make up 21000 units.


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