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13.02.2020

HYBRID CHALLENGES TO INTEGRATION PROCESSES 1

   

Gagik Harutyunyan

Keywords: integration, disintegration, multi-polar world order, think-tanks, military-political factor, economic factors, humanitarian-informational factor, hybrid confrontations, hybrid challenges, information warfare, critical infrastructures, science and technology factor.


1. INTEGRATION VECTORS

1.1 “Integration”, “empires” and “colonies”

The Latin word integratio may have two meanings: integrum — whole, complete, and integratio — restoring, renewal, and both concepts are positive and in harmony with each other. The integration processes were the basis for shaping ethnicities and countries, and the concept of integration also contains the notion of complementing each other in practically all areas of human activities between countries, ethnicities and societies. In certain cases the shaping of empires with civilizational content may also be considered integration. Media often present these in exclusively grim tones and characterize them as evil exploiters of conquered countries and peoples. However, sometimes empires became locomotives of integration and development. Unsurprisingly, some scholars consider that processes in certain aspects similar to the modern globalization and integration had already started in the epoch of Alexander the Great. As far as the negative epithets for empires are concerned, it has to be noted that, unfortunately, so far no country has developed an ideal governance system and this objective circumstance has prompted the philosophers to introduce the concept of “utopian country”.

In the light of the above-mentioned considerations, it is hard to agree with the recently appeared ideas that the trends toward inter-country integration processes appeared only in the contemporary history. There are even such statements as “just half a century ago integration projects looked like some risky, if not adventurist political experiments”1. Without starting a polemic on this topic, the our further narrative will be based on the strict definition of the term “integration” formulated by Gonidec and Charvin: “Integration is both a process and a state that has a tendency to replace the fragmented international relations, composed of independent units with new, more or less wide associations, endowed with a minimum of decision-making powers, or in one or more specific areas, or in all the areas that fall within the competence basic units”2.

Returning to the current epoch, we will attempt to review the patterns of integration processes in the Greater Eurasia, which had always been an epicenter of global developments and where over 5 billion people live in 99 countries (of which 50 are in Europe).

After the World War I, the successor of the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, became an example of a large, multiethnic and maximally integrated state in the Greater Eurasia, the integration capabilities of which at its peak stretched from East Berlin to Beijing. After losing the Cold War, USSR was replaced by the minimized and liberalized successor Russian Federation. In the second half of the 20th century the European Union became an example of a large-scale integration megaproject, which in some sense can be called a liberal-democratic and pacifist version of the USSR.

The upsides of integration can be shown even on the example of the USSR, which is often called an empire in its exclusive negative sense (often quite justifiably). For example, the core of the empire, Russian Soviet Federal Republic produced a lot more than consumed, and part of these revenues were provided to other republics of the Union – “the exploited colonies”3. Consequently, many of these republics created developed scientific, technological, cultural and educational infrastructures, while the living standards of their populations were higher, than those of the “imperial nation”4. This tradition continues in modern Russia. For example, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has a population of just 1 million, yet runs eight theaters, two large Museums and 11 higher education institutions. These institutions publish monographs and journals some of which are quite renowned (e.g. Mathematic Notes)5. Thus, the relationship between “empires” and their “colonies” largely depend on the civilizational code and traditions of the “colonizers”. In this context it is appropriate to recall that the native Indian populace of USA (about 5 million) live in reservations and possess practically no economic and cultural resources.

Due to various objective and non-objective circumstances, the integration processes often are affected by both external and internal forces. The effectiveness of unifying efforts to solve whatever issues largely depends on the strength proportions of integration and disintegration processes. It has to be also noted that today virtually the whole arsenal of the so-called hybrid confrontations is used to promote disintegration trends, which will be discussed later. Hybrid technologies are quite effective, which creates a pressing need to study the mechanisms of disintegration challenges in a more detailed manner, which in turn implies adequate understanding of the environment where both integration and disintegration processes occur. Interdisciplinary methods are required to investigate this combination of issues, which will be attempted henceforth.


1.2 The “triad” of integration and disintegration vectors

In practice, as well as sometimes in the scholarly literature, the effectiveness of economic and military-political cooperation is considered the main indicator for the characteristics of integration processes. However, these dimensions of cooperation, although extremely important and quantitatively measurable, do not fully reflect the purpose and essence of an integration process. Unfortunately, when studying the phenomenon of integration the analysts’ community often ignores the humanitarian component, the significance of which in certain conditions may even prevail over the pragmatic factors. At the same time, all the mentioned components are closely interrelated and complement each other. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of integration processes is possible only if the following three dimensions are considered:

  1. Military-political;
  2. Economic;
  3. Humanitarian.

The humanitarian component is a quite far-reaching, multi-faceted and in some cases even irrational concept, since the relationships between the subjects are not strictly regulated in this area. That is why, unlike the other two, this factor is a considerably harder to quantify and present in the form of calculated data or clear patterns. Based on a wider definition of the term “information”, this study reviews only the informational segment of the humanitarian component, as in the initial and more comprehensive sense the Latin word informare means to teach, think, imagine, and shape. This approach allows encompassing (sometimes indirectly) intellectual and civilizational issues in the information area. In this context it needs to be also emphasized that the global development patterns in military-political and economic area in many ways depend on the decision-making officials’ level of awareness (in the sense of knowledge). Worded differently, the information area in integration processes can be considered a critical one.

Based on the above, it can be assumed that the adequate perception and accurate assessment of the integration processes (especially their humanitarian component) implies use of interdisciplinary approaches. Particularly, such approaches should be applied when decisions are made at the government level and here, as it was already mentioned, a lot depends on the intellectual and professional level of the political elites. The state of these elites, in turn, depends on the development level of the society as a whole, as well as the existence of a regenerative feedback between the elites and think-tanks, which are also called “producers of the national interest”6. Effectiveness of a think tank’s work depends on its ability to carry out interdisciplinary applied R&D based on the results of fundamental science.

Obviously, disintegration technologies also imply deep knowledge about integration processes, the society of the adversary, and development of such technologies is possible only with an active participation of think tanks and other competent structures.

At the same time, the direction of integration vectors is largely predefined by the existing conditions in the world and capabilities of the global actors that determine the game rules (or devalue and transform these rules) in the modern world order. Under such circumstances in order to accurately take into account the factors that accompany integration and disintegration processes, it is necessary to first try imagining the “environment” where these processes occur, which is shaped by the geopolitical developments. We will examine this task schematically and limit it to a brief political review of happenings in Greater Eurasia, with consideration of the influence on geopolitical and geo-economic developments exerted by the global leader, the USA.


1 Интеграционные процессы в современном мире: новые тенденции и вызовы https://www.webeconomy.ru/index.php?page=cat&cat=mcat&mcat=133&type=news&newsid=1646, Интеграционные процессы в современном мире, https://studbooks.net/2211248/ekonomika/integratsionnye_protsessy_sovremennom_mire
2 Gonidec P.-F., Charvin R. Relations Internationales, Paris, 1984, p. 435.
3 Сулакшин С., Багдасарян В., Цивилизационный феномен в российском государствообразовании, http://rusrand.ru/ideas/civilizacionnyy-fenomen-v-rossiyskom-gosudarstvoobrazovanii,
4 It is assessed that currently the GDP of some ex-Soviet republics still has not reached the level of 1980s.
5 Арутюнян, Г., «Колонии», «империи», цивилизации и безопасность. Доклад на конференции «Четыре года участия Армении в ЕАЭС: реалии и перспективы Евразийской интеграции», Ереван, 22.12.2018 г. http://www.noravank.am/rus/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=17851&sphrase_id=71919.
6 See, for example, Арутюнян Г., Распад «системы» и прогнозирование будущего, Научно- образовательных фонд «Нораванк», Ереван, 2011, Арутюнян Г., Мозговые центры и национальная безопасность, «21-ий Век», #1(17), с.3, 2011.


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