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03.03.2011

ON FORECASTS

   

Gagik Harutyunyan

G.Harutyunyan - Executive Director of “Noravank” Foundation

One of the prior purposes of the states and national formations is the comprehensive evaluation of the current situation and formation of definite ideas about future developments.

Currently forecasts and scenarios, which has become an important component of the political culture, are in requisition in the leading countries.

One should state that the methods of scientific prognostication are constantly developing which has raised the reliability of the forecasts. Today dozens of methods are used and some of them will be briefly presented below.

“Genius” forecast. It is accepted view that “genius” forecasts were made only by the predictors of the past (such as, e.g., Nostradamus). But such forecasts were also made in more or less recent times. E.g. Velimir Khlebnikov (who had Armenian roots) back in 1912 predicted the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917. In our times there are individuals whose exact forecasts astonish contemporaries. E.g., the head of the Trend Research Institute Gerald Celente is considered “American Nostradamus” because he managed to forecast the collapse of the markets in 1987, the collapse of the Soviet Union and etc. According to the recent forecasts of Celente the end of the American hegemony in the world is close: he predicts that there will be domestic risings in the US which will end in revolution.

“Delphi” method. The essence of the method is the following. At first “unknown” experts submit forecasts concerning the studied issue and those forecasts are presented to all the participants of the study. The experts should critically discuss opposite points of view and, in a consequence, they either substantiate or change their viewpoints. This process continues till the variant, which is acceptable for both organizers and critics, is found.

For the efficient implementation of “Delphi” technology it is necessary to preserve various preconditions but the main factor is, of course, highly qualified expert community.

“Scenario writing”. This method is mostly used while making long-term scenarios. As a rule, scenarios suppose three possible ways of developments: optimistic, pessimistic and most probable. It is an accepted viewpoint that the theoretic grounds of this method were elaborated in the late 60s of the last century, and for the first time it was applied in 1971 by the analysts of Royal Dutch Shell oil company: they just tried to calculate the increase of prices by OPEC (which was very topical in those years) and to forecast the consequences.

This method allows forecasting sometimes mutually exclusive or even radical variants of local or global developments. In scenario planning the imagination of the experts is a valuable asset and it is not a mere chance that very often not only specialists in the field of the considered issue but also fantasy writers, chess players and etc. (the so called creative and non-standard personalities) are involved. Such a “free” approach to possible developments, among other benefits, also prepares for the most unexpected military and political and economic turns. Due to this, “scenario technologies” are widespread not only among state structures and “think tanks” working under their aegis but also among large trade companies.

There are different methods of scenario elaborations, but, as a rule, they imply the implementation of the following steps:

  • the general background of the development of situation is clarified if it is possible, and in this context the events, which are most probable, are singled out.
  • the factors and features which may have the biggest impact on the given event are decided,
  • Minimum and maximum impacts of those factors and descriptors are decided as far as it is possible.
  • as a result of their logical comparison those possible scenarios, the probability of implementation of which is either very high or at least it is not excluded, are formed.

“Foresight” method. Today one can observe a definite tendency to the creation of the combined methods of forecasting, in which different approaches and technologies are combined. Among them “Foresight” method or “the vision of future” is widespread.

This method combines algorithms of “Delphi”, “scenario writing” and other methods. The purpose of “Foresight” is to come to the most integral understanding in the expert community in the issues of social-economic and scientific-technological spheres.

Numerous experts are involved in order to consider all the possible variants and to get an integral picture. Thus, in the Japanese long-term forecasts concerning scientific and technological development, more than two thousand experts who represent all the crucial directions in the development of science, technologies and engineering are involved.

The main principles of the “Foresight” are:

  • Future can be built, depending on the efforts spent.
  • Future has many variants, it dose not spring from the past and it also depends on the steps taken by the participants.
  • Future cannot be accurately forecasted or predicted: you should be prepared for the future.

Extrapolation of tendencies. With the help of this method the tendencies of the development of the existing indices, which are later extrapolated to the future, are studied. The main principle is that “future is formed under the influence of the powers which played a crucial role in the past”. The method is efficient within short-terms when conditions stay stable for a long period, which “covers the space of time observed both in the past and in the forecasted future”.

Philosophical and Reflective Approach

The founder of this tenor is well-known philosopher and political scientist Aleksandr Panarin (1940-2003). The basis point of this approach is the idea that the future of the mankind is qualitatively different and it is impossible to extrapolate it from today’s realities. According to Panarin, “the mankind is faced with the choice: either to open door to the qualitatively new future or it will have no future at all”. And the assertion that future is continuation of the present (i.e. “it is quantitative extension of the created descriptors and trends”) dose not stand up to criticism.

The first substantiation is connected with the “ecological borders of the extension”, i.e. with the overload of the earth ecology. This demands changing the paradigm of the development of current technological civilization and its interrelations with the nature.

The second one is connected with “the tendencies of moral degeneration which manifests itself not only in the disastrous worsening of the moral statistics regarding mass conduct but also in the essential worsening of the decisions – political, economic, administrative and managerial – taken by the modern elites

It should be mentioned that moral, philosophical-reflective factor in other methods is usually not taken into consideration. Meanwhile, this circumstance is more than important and, by the way, its value has increased as connected with the observed processes of system crisis.

The third is connected with the deepening social polarization between wealthy and needy parts of the humanity. Meanwhile, “quite recently it seemed that the process of global modernization is carried out within the trend of common universal perspective – communion of less developed strata, countries, regions with the common standard, in which the cherished goal of the humanity is embodied”.

Let us mention that today Panarin’s approach is shared by many well-known philosophers, sociologists and political scientists. At the same time, according to a little paradoxical postulate of the forecasting theory, future can be “improved” only if you “know it well”.

"Globus National security", issue 1, 2011

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