On Russian gas situation
On the 19th of January in “Noravank” foundation was held a seminar on “Russian gas situation” from series of “Situational analyses. The foundation’s director Gagik Harutyunyan represented some strategic aspects and remarkable details of Russian-Ukrainian “gas war” (you may get better acquainted with the article having a look in the section of analytics: Gagik Ter-Harutyunyan: “Russian gas: economy and policy”).
During the discussion the Foundation’s expert Vahagn Aglyan drew attention of the present on the following important circumstances.
- First of all a precedent of successful, serious tactical activity in Russian military policy is established, which may de facto change the attitude to Russia in the world and especially in the West. For reaching the traditional goals a new, well calculated prospective in the middle term, which is a combinative method with the implementation of other tools, has come to substitute Yeltsin’s foreign policy stile. It was also pointed out that as a matter of fact the averaged prices of gas transferred from Russia into Ukraine (“the mixed” price of Russian and Central Asian gas transported through RF territory is $95) creates additional prerequisites for strengthening the possible fastening the Central Asian gas system to the Russia’s.
- Second: were briefly represented the article of RF Defense Minister and vice Prime Minister S. Ivanov published in “The Wall Street Journal” on the 11th of January 2006, which, by the terms and the discussed subject reminds the article written by RF ex-Foreign Minister A. Kozirev published in October 1994 in another authoritative journal. In the both articles is stressed up the necessity to preserve status quo in the Post Soviet territory. However by comparing these two periods it becomes clear that from declarative period now Russia gets on to proactive activities. According to Ruben Safrastyan Russia’s victory in “gas war” was also one of the most serious geopolitical and strategic successes but it is still difficult to imagine its long-term consequences.
In his speech the foundation’s deputy director Sevak Sarukhanyan dwelled on another announcement of strategic character made by S. Ivanov according to which Russia with its vast territory and comparatively little population can protect itself from foreign invasion only by means of special nuclear weapon. It was also pointed out that another way to keep the status of Russia’s power state is to have big energy resources which were perfectly used by the RF authorities in “gas war”. The course of Russian-Ukrainian conflict proved the modest means of “velvet revolutions” in serious strategic processes, strengthened Russia’s position (as an energy supplier) in Europe. The gas problem will have a big influence on the developments inside the country.
Ruben Safrastyan pointed out the geopolitical and strategic aspects of “gas war”. In comparison with the “orange revolution” period failure Russia was very quick to react in gas issue and took large scale actions, which had an important role in Russia’s victory in “gas war”. Geopolitically the process suspended Ukraine’s membership to NATO (though not everything is clear in this issue) and the US had to accept the reality. The preservation of status quo in our region will lead to the worsening of the country’s inner-political situation as the necessity to oppose a number of foreign pressures will make the authorities to express open but at the same time hardly accepted positions.
At the end Gagik Harutyunyan pointed out S. Ivanov’s and N. Borduzha’s (Collective Security Treaty Organization executive secretary) last announcements that in any war situation SCTO will military support Armenia irrespective of the country it will have conflicts with. It is an exclusive announcement by its object content and unequivocal trend.
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