A round table on the world’s future
On the 13th of October 2005 in the Institute of Philosophy of Russia’s Academy of Science was organized a round table on “Global prognostication 2020” by the Moscow office of Kenan’s Institute, where the main speech was delivered by Mitchell Reiss-the policy planning stuff ex-director of the US State department under C. Powell. In the round table took part “Noravank” Foundation’s vice-president Sevak Sarukhanyan.
Mitchell Reiss reveled the main problems the US has confronted recently. Among them were:
- Iran’s nuclear ambitions;
- Northern Korea’s nuclear problem;
- International terrorism.
Especially actual were Mitchell Reiss’s theses concerning to the fact that a lot a people in the US understood that during the coming five years it was unlikely for Iran to become a nuclear power. Anyhow the settlement of the problem by means of military intervention was being continuously discussed. Reiss thinks that the US can easily strike a blow on Iranian nuclear sights, yet this is of great danger for the US: “If we strike Iran we must be ready to have more problems in Iraq. Moreover, even “Al-Qaida” is not such a threat for the US as Lebanese organization “Hezbolla”, we should know that after striking Iran our embassies and people in different countries will become a target of attack. We can’t close all our Near-Eastern embassies”.
To a question if the US can guarantee security to Iran in case if the later refuses to elaborate military nuclear program Reiss answered: “The question is just in case. Today’s the US administration will never provide such a guarantee. The coming administration will maybe do this. But his one will never. The problem is the central issue of Bush’s Iranian policy: non-proliferation or the change in regime”. Reiss considers the project of building a gas pipeline extremely dangerous, as it will raise ES dependence from Iran and will strengthen the later’s position.
From Reiss’s content of the speech it was clear that while heading Policy Planning Staff of the US department the later was against the military settlement of Iranian problem.
M. Reiss’s predictions concerning to China’s, Europe’s, Russia’s, India’s, and America’s future were also of great interest.
China: In spite of up-tempo economic developments, it is hardly possible for China to become a super power. It is reasoned by quick ageing of the nation. In 10-15 years China will become the world’s “oldest” nation. Today it is an impossible task for China to further its population’s growth because of the lack of necessary vital and economic space for the new generations to come.
According to Reiss the country pretending to the role of a real power centre is India which is younger then China and besides is a prospering one, the US is going to cooperate with India in sake of the world’s peace and stability. The US stakes on India.
Europe: The main problem of the EC will be internal stability provoked by the growth of Muslim inhabitants in different European countries. Besides, according to Reiss, Muslim inhabitants of European countries became more loyal to Islamic extremist ideas, which is probably a result of a wrong confessional and national policy of the main European capitals.
Russia: Russia is rapidly developing, but this country “dies out” because of alcoholism, low birth rate, unemployment and different diseases. “Putin is not able to control this process”. Russia will play an important role in the world policy solely thanks to its hydrocarbon resources and maybe the nuclear arsenal which will be of great danger if it falls into the hands of terrorists.
USA: The US will maintain its high speed of development, yet in 20 years it will be an absolutely new country where the majority of the population will be made up of Spanish speaking people. The future of the country depends on its ability to develop in new ethnic conditions.
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