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06.05.2006

Russia: Problems in The West and the prospective in The East

   

Gagik Terteryan 

Russia’s foreign policy orientation has undergone qualitative changes for the past few years. In particular the relations of this power state with the US remind us the years of the Cold War. In the informational field have already appeared comparisons of these two powers’ nuclear potential, and are being considered the issue of excluding Russia from the format of “G8”, it is also blockaded the process of this country’s entry into The World Trade Organization (WTO), etc. Though present day Russia is still preserving the status of the power state, but it hasn’t acquired Soviet Union’s political impact and economic power yet. However there are other realities as well, one of which is the tendency to develop Russian-China strategic partnership.

  • Little by little Russia is deviating from democratic principals, and today a “mild” authoritarian system has been established there. In this regard the US should pay special attention to preserving democratic norms and the principles of legitimacy while electing Putin’s successor in 2008. It is pointed out that Russia tries to spread antidemocratic tendencies peculiar to it in neighbor countries (in this context first of all are considered to be Ukraine and Georgia).
  • There is a common concern that little by little Russia deviates from the principles of antiterrorist coalition established after September 11, 2001. In this connection it is pointed out Russia’s well known attitude to Hamas.
  • Special attention is attended to Russia’s attitude towards Iran’s nuclear program. It is considered that the essence of this relation is the showing on the basis of which relations should be established with Russia.
  • On the whole the working group was convinced that Russia has got out of the orbit of American-Western policy and tries to restore its position in the world.
  • According to the working group’s conclusion the above stated arguments have come to prove that the US policy to Russia must be changed.

It is known that for the last years the US-Russia relations were troublesome. At the same time, taking into account WTO’s role in American policy, one can state that Russia-US political relations have stepped into a new period, which is characterized to be extremely strained and contradicting. The evidence of it is the inclusion of the wording about democratic situation in Russia into the doctrine of “The US national security-2006”, as a matter of fact repeating WTO’s conclusion.

The negotiations between the foreign minister Sergey Lavrov on one hand and George Bush, Condoleezza Rice on the other are the reflection of the US-Russia diplomatic relations. The reports spread in the informational field and the interview of Sergey Lavrov given after the visit, have come to prove that the project to establish a joint uranium enrichment plant with Iran was frozen in particular as a result of pressure exerted by the US.

The tough policy adopted by the US to Russia is especially obvious in the issue of Trans-Dniester economic blockade. It is known that the issue of Trans-Dniester fundamentally differs from the ones of Ossetia, Abkhazia and Karabakh. Inter-ethnic issues in that territory are marked quite feebly (for about 40% of s Moldavian, 30% of Ukrainian and 30% of Russian population), and the separatist moods don’t prevail: we should only remember the official name of that territory-Trans Dniestrian Moldavian Republic. The problems here are mainly of economic (Moldavia’s industrial complex is concentrated in Trans-Dniester) and political (Moldova, with overwhelming Rumanian population, aspires to unification with that country) character. Moldova’s governing body and the population agree to remain the consisting of Moldova in the status of autonomous republic and still in 2004 this problem (in the framework of “Kozak’s plan”) was almost settled. There is no doubt that the adoption of the customs new rules on importation of goods to Ukraine (according to the new rules these goods must be officially registered by Kishinev’s customs services) was also provoked by the West. These new orders are also disadvantageous for Ukraine, but these expenses were compensated by means of cancellation of so called Jackson-Venika amandement and membership to the WTO. It is obvious that all these are directed against the presence of Russian peace-makers in Trans-Dniester. It is characteristic that these kinds of actions are carried out in South Ossetia as well.

We come across the above stated tendencies in the Karabakh issue as well. American growing presence in this issue is now directed not only against Iran but also against Russia’s influence strengthening in Republic of Armenian (RA) and Azerbaijan. In this context the US tries to restore its position in the region, which is partially expressed by the latter’s intention to build atomic power-station (APS) in RA. Let’s point out that thereupon the construction of new atomic power stations is the basis of the US new energy strategy: it is also envisaged to build large groups of atomic power stations in the American continent, in Eurasia, particularly in Turkey, for about 10 atomic power stations. One of the aims of this project is the aspiration for counterbalancing Russian oil and gas initiatives.

Russian-Turkish cooperation

Today one can state as a fact that a cooperation of strategic character is step by step established between Russia and China almost in all the fields. One should only point out that during the last year the leaders of the countries met for five times. Economic cooperation is developing quickly. After the agreement was concluded on July 16, 2001, the volume of commodity circulation increased trice reaching up to $30 billions. It is envisaged that by 2010 the volume of commodity circulation will achieve a showing of $80 billions which is already comparable with China-the US trading value (at present more then $100 billion). It is also planned to make special economic zones in Russian-China frontier territories.

The agreement in energy field concluded between the two power states deserves special attention. For China with limited energy resources and 10-12% annual growth rate in economy, problems in the energy field are vital. In 2006 for about 15 million tons of oil will be got from Russia, constituting for about 10% of China’s annual demands in import. At present negotiations are carried on building oil pipeline from Siberian Angarsk to Chinese Dacin of the value of $11.5 billion. The parties have also undertaken the realization of a large-scale gas project “Altai”, by which is intended to build two gas pipelines each of which exporting for about 30-40 billion cubic meters of gas. It is also envisaged to increase the supply of electrical energy: together with today’s 1 billion kilowatt-hour a year up till 18 billion kilowatt-hour by 2010. Negotiations are carried on also in the field of atomic energy.

There is no doubt that Russian-China economic cooperation is to a great extent conditioned by these Eurasian states’ political orientation. During his last visit to Beijing V. Putin signed a joined communiqué with Hu-Jintao, where, as a matter of fact, were endorsed the thesis first affirmed in the declaration signed in Astana in 2005. Let’s remember that in this document were represented the parties’ principal approaches to the 21st century world order, in particular their intention to shape a new structure of global security relying on variety of civilizations. Today Russian-China political cooperation is particularly expressed in the parties’ position towards Iran’s nuclear program. As it is known, it was owing to these states’ diplomatic steps that no sanctions were imposed against Iran by UN.

However the most striking expression of Russian-China strategic cooperation is the founadation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The following showings have come to prove about the overall potential of this organization’s member states (Kazakhstan, Kirgizia, China, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and India, Iran and Pakistan as observers). According to the US CIA expert calculations SCO’s gross domestic product (GDP), with 2.8 million of population and 35.8 million square kilometers of territory (including the observers), was estimated to be $14.5 trillion in 2005. That’s to say according to this showing SCO is already ahead the economies of the US and the EU taken separately. The values of GDP of the US and the EU are almost equal, for about $12 trillion each.

In the context SCO formation one must take into account the political-economic tendencies prevalent in south-east Asia. The states of this region, which have united under the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-including Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia, Brunei, Myanma), today hold Pro-Chinese and to some extent Pro-Russian position (taking into consideration trade cooperation in the field of arms).

According to some experts, in this process is outlined future enlarged Eurasian cooperation. Let’s notice that such a format is sure to compete with the west. For example, the total volume of the US and the EU in 2005 was for about $24.5 trillion, and the total volume of SCO and ASEAN constituted $17 trillion, that’s to say economic showings of the united west and east are already comparable.


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