NAGORNO-KARABAKH – UNTIED TIES An attempt of geopolitical analysis
Introduction: While speaking about “frizen conflicts” the international analytical community, basing on various political and global interests, often takes under a common umbrella the processes relating to the international status of not recognized states of Post-Soviet territory. However, the new factual classification of those conflicts has been clearly outlined recently, according to which now they are observed due to supremacy of the Russian component – Abkhazia, Predniester, South Ossetia, and without supremacy of the Russian component – Nagorno-Karabakh, problems.
Such a distinction is resulted by a number of factors, including maximal independent position of the Armenian parties and characteristic geopolitical peculiarities of the NKR conflict.
Independent of international diplomatic developments progressing around the NKR, it is to be stated as a fact that the whole international activity is directed not so much at the NKR conflict settlement as at the issue of giving the already settled conflict international status and recognition. To make this provision clearer we may state as a fact that:
- Civilization centers have once and for all realized inexpediency of all the possible projects of returning the NKR to Azerbaijan.
- Azerbaijan’s political elite has to put up with the idea of losing the NKR, and all the martial and pathetic declarations are dictated by internal political motivations and “phantom pains” connected with the lose of the NKR.
- Armenia agrees to leave the perspective of joining the NKR to the RA for the future.
- The NKR will join Armenia as an independent ethno-territorial, ethno-political entity.
As for characteristic peculiarities of the NKR issue, I’d like to analyze it on a few plains.
Legal: Although it has long been known that the norms of the international right in up-to-date world predominantly work only for or in case of protecting corresponding interests (I’ll later return to these interests in the context of the NKR), nevertheless, it is important to accurately formulate legal grounds/arguments of the Armenian party, such as:
- Formation of the NKR in the legislation of the USSR.
- Proclamation of the Republic of Azerbaijan (“Proclamation of reestablishing the Republic of Azerbaijan’s state independence”) as a successor of PRA, accordingly, without the territory of the NKR.
- Taking into consideration the fact that the local analysts often turn to the above mentioned legal norms, let me not to get in details).
- The NKR conflict has been settled as realization of the rights of nations for self-determination confirmed in the 8th principle of the Helsinki Final Act, and, before that, in the UN “Universal Declaration of Human Rights” and “International Convention on Civil and Political rights.” I’d also like to repeat the thesis that there are no contradictions with the principle of territorial integrity, as the first one refers to intergovernmental relations, and the second one (right for self-determination) applies to the nation living in the framework of the very state.
- And finally, even if we imagine for a minute that as a result of work carried out by the Azerbaijani propagandistic machine Armenia will be considered as a state encroaching upon territorial integrity of the neighbor country, than in “Universal Declaration of Human Right” (October 24, 1970) it is asserted that the principle of territorial integrity is not applied to the countries which don’t ensure equality of the nations living there and their right for self-determination. In the very declaration it is mentioned that to carry out that rights it is necessary creation of an independent state, unification with another state or acquisition of another political status.
Geostrategy: Global political and economic characteristics traits of the South Caucasus are:
- Transit (energy carriers, railway and motor roads)
- Their own energy carriers (Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea)
- Control (Central Asia, the Near East)
Up-to-date functional roles of Nagorno-Karabakh in global politics are the following:
- Possible fulcrum against the Islamic Republic of Iran thanks to the common land boundary.
- Impediment to build a Pan-Turkic bridge:
- Potential threat against security and uninterrupted functioning of regional energy communications:
- A lever of effective influence on the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan:
- NKR is not only the “own” problem of NKR, RA, RF, it is also the problem of international political elite.
- The NKR issue is “autonomous” but it is not “independent,” it is interconnected with other geopolitical and geo-economic conflicts.
Political: International political process around the NKR is paving its way through the political pyramid consisting of corresponding interested subjects on top of which is the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, in the basis – RF, USA and EU, and in the middle layer - RA-AR and Turkey –Iran couples accordingly.
NKR.RF – AR.Turkey – Iran.Russia – USA-EU
As one can notice, the political process which began as a result of realizing the NKR nation’s self-determination, spreads from its epicenter (NKR) embracing a wider interested circle – RF, EU. US.
Turning this conditional pyramid upside-down we can figuratively represent which interests in the process of international recognition of the NKR status are compressed on top of the system – in the NKR (from top to bottom).
Armenian axioms: International political process progressing around the NKR, nevertheless, is to be placed in the framework of axioms laid down by the Armenian party.
- Axiom of confirming the realization of the NKR nation’s right for self-determination.
- Axiom of common land boundary between the NKR and the RA.
- Axiom of international guarantee of the NKR’s independence.
On regional public welfares. As we could see, realization of the NKR nation’s right for self-determination as well as the process of giving international legitimacy to it faces the necessity of harmonizing approaches of many actors which have regional interests often contradicting each other.
However stubborn synthesis of minimal acceptable interests of the Earth’s geopolitical actors seems to be, I dare to suggest a universal synthetic agenda of policy in South-Caucasian region potentially acceptable for them (not only connected with the NKR) and call it a Regional public welfares:
- regional stability,
- regional security,
- economic development,
- regional economic integration, a common market,
- civil liberties,
- political right,
- conservancy,
- struggle against terrorism and radicalism.
Karabakh conflict settlement - art of what is possible
The NKR international process aims at preserving its present situation – “All the ways lead to status quo.” There are several prerequisites for such a situation.
- Necessity for “peaceful coexistence” of the NKR and Baku-Tbilis-Ceyhan oil carrier.
- Absence of new regional mega-projects.
- Secondarity of the NKR as a base in case of possible operations against Iran.
- In the foreseeable perspective unreality of final victory “geopolitical overstretching of South-Caucasian rope.”
- Circumstance of being interconnection with neighbor regions.
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