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SENSITIVITY THRESHOLDS OF COUNTRIES WITH TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES: THE CASE OF ARMENIA

Abstract

The analysis of sensitivity thresholds of economy enables to identify the critical characteristics of key economic processes of transition from quantity to a new economic quality. The complex investigation of sensitivity thresholds of economy conduces to the identification of their interrelations. Since uncertainty intervals are present in economy, it is possible to present only the interval forecast of sensitivity thresholds. The sensitivity threshold of economic indicators occurs when the probability of transition to a new economic quality substantially increases in this or that sphere of economy. The study of sensitivity thresholds is especially important for a country with transitional economy as only the threshold values of key economic indicators make the effective realization of market economy potential possible. The sensitivity thresholds of economic processes create benchmarks of economy that decisions made, must correspond to.

Introduction

The achievements in fiscal and monetary policies, privatization, fight against corruption and in other aspects of economic policy will not entail essential qualitative changes, if the critical values of key characteristics of economy are not attained. The improvement of the situation with this or that economic indicator does not mean that a qualitative change has automatically occurred in the economic sphere that is characterized by the indicator, and the sensitivity threshold is overcome.

In the present conditions of global and regional economic situation, the main factor of economic security is homeostasis1, that is, a sustainable development without fluctuations that can represent a serious threat. The ability to withstand external shocks is an important condition for the development of economy. The slowdown of economic growth, moreover, the significant decline, may lead to negative qualitative changes in economy and have an irreversible character. For the estimation of economic homeostasis, it is expedient to research thresholds of transition from quantity to a new economic quality.

SENSITIVITY THRESHOLDS OF COUNTRIES WITH TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES: THE CASE OF ARMENIA (7.05 MB)