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25.11.2013

FAVOURABLE REGIONAL POLITICAL SITUATION IS FORMED AROUND NAGORNO-KARABAKH PROCESS

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Resumption of negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at the level of president of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan and president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, interrupted 2.5 years ago, is a positive impulse to the process of peaceful settlement of the conflict. It is also favoured by general positive regional background, which began to be outlined after some reduction of tension around Iran (after the change of the government in the IRI) and Syria. According to the correspondent of REGNUM Information Agency this was stated by the director of “Noravank” Foundation Gagik Harutyunyan at the press-conference held on November 21 in Yerevan.

The meeting of the president of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan and president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev was held on November 19 in Vienna. Presidents made no statements for the media after it, but the statements were made by the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group on Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Settlement. According to the mediators the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, particularly “agreed to add momentum to the further negotiations process directed to the peaceful settlement and commissioned their minister of foreign affairs, together with the co-chairmen, to continue work on the grounds of what has already been obtained, with the purpose of intensification of peaceful process. They agreed to meet again in the months to come”. The previous Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting took place in Kazan on the initiative of president of Russia Dmitri Medvedev in June 2010 and did not justify the expectations.

“Currently the framework of the security of the neighboring Middle East region is outlined. Russia and U.S. managed to come to the agreement on disposal of chemical weapons of Damascus, thus putting end to the theme of invasion of Syria from outside. Favourable background is also formed around Iran. After the recent change of power in this country some kind of meltdown in the relation between Iran and the West can be observed”, - said the analytic.

In his opinion, shrinkage of oil production in Azerbaijan and entering of Armenia into the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus can also be considered as favourable condition in the context of Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. “Decline of oil production in Azerbaijan on the one hand will cause the shrinkage of its income, and on the other side it will lower the significance of Baku for the global actors. And joining the Customs Uinion will strengthen the security of Armenia and its positions in the region”, - said Mr. Harutyunyan.

At the same time director of “Noravank” Foundation also observes a circumstance in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement which causes concern. “Some concern is caused by the statement of the U.S. Secretary of State John Carry that the stances of Turkey and US on Nagorno-Karabakh coincide (in reality such statement was made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu following the results of the meeting with the U.S. Secretary of State John Carry, stating that the U.S. and Turkey approached the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement from the same stance – Editor). This statement causes some concern”, - underlined Gagik Harutyunyan, adding that such a synchronization of the U.S. and Turkey’s stances should be considered in a wider regional context.

Previously Davutoglu also stated that Ankara could also open the Armenian-Turkish border before 2015 (prior to the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire – Editor). Turkey closed the border with Armenia in 1993 because of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. “Joining of the Customs Union by Armenia and possible re-opening of the Abkhazian section of the Transcaucasian railway caused competition around Yerevan. That is why the U.S. and Turkey tend to stir up Turkish foreign policy in regard to Armenia, make statements concerning possible re-opening of the Armenian-Turkish border and running of Kars-Gyumri-Tbilisi railway, in order not to allow their weakening in the region”, - explained the guest of the press-conference.

It is remarkable that previously the United States refused to finance Kars-Akhlkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway, insisting on running Kars-Gyumri-Tbilisi railway.

At the end, while speaking about the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, the expert mentioned the necessity of new proposals on Nagorno-Karabakh on behalf of the mediators. “Enough time has elapsed and there is a need of new proposals on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. Besides, there are “mines” for all the parties to the conflict “buried” in the Madrid document. Hence, new proposals, which will be acceptable to all the parties, should be made”, - underlined he, and added that in new proposals on Nagorno-Karabakh the scale could be turned to the Armenian side. This is also conditioned by regional conjuncture. “As for the process of meltdown in the relations between Iran and the West, the significance of Azerbaijan in the regional geopolitics as a springboard for the Iranian campaign is considerably lowering”, - summed up Gagik Harutyunyan.


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